Sunday features warm weather across the country, including several MLB games comfortably sitting in the 90s. Friendly home run environments could be brewing for today’s full 15-game schedule, but who could take advantage by sending one over the fence?
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Sunday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 9, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Sunday, August 9
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Rockies OF Mickey Moniak
- Giants 1B Rafael Devers
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 1:35 p.m. ET
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber (8 GS, 3-2, 5.00 xFIP, 35.5% hard-hit, 36.4 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 91 degrees, 15% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds toward 1B
- Across 19 games since the All-Star break, Kyle Schwarber has launched only 1 home run, and he’s on a 17-game drought without sending one over the fence.
- Sunday could bring the boost Schwarber needs, as Ballpark Pal gives Citizens Bank Park the highest home run factor (+39%) today, aided by warm weather in the 90s.
- Further, 9 mph winds are expected to blow toward first base, and that may easily shift to right field, helping the left-handed Schwarber.
- Adding to his case, Blue Jays SP Shane Bieber cedes 1.70 HR/9 and a 15.9% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB), which are both above the 1.17 and 11.7% league averages on FanGraphs.
- Schwarber certainly has the stuff to make Bieber pay, proven by his elite 29.2% HR/FB paired with a healthy 46.3% fly ball rate.
- Toronto’s starter allows a 10.7% barrel rate (11th percentile), while Schwarber carries a 16.9% barrel rate (97th percentile).
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Yankees 1B Ben Rice
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees – 1:35 p.m. ET
Braves Starting Pitcher: Grant Holmes (21 GS, 7-4, 4.53 xFIP, 40.0% hard-hit, 39.6 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 91 degrees, 15% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds out to CF
- Despite the heat of summer bringing the best setting for launching dingers, we’ve seen several of the league’s best enter cold spells. That’s also been the case for Ben Rice, who was in an 11-game drought from July 28 to August 7.
- Rice finally went yard on Saturday, tallying his 32nd home run of the 2026 season.
- New York’s first baseman continues to carry strong slugging stats, including a .510 xSLG (93rd percentile) and a 15.8% barrel rate (95th percentile).
- Rice’s 39.9% fly ball rate is a touch above the 39.0% league average, but when he does get lift, there’s a good chance it’s out of the park with a 26.9% HR/FB.
- Aiding his chance to get good lift on Sunday, Braves SP Grant Holmes’ 39.6% fly ball rate allowed is slightly over the league average.
- Holmes’ second-most used pitch is a four-seam fastball (29.7%), and Rice touts his second-highest SLG against four-seamers (.500).
- Yankee Stadium sports a favorable +20% home run factor on Sunday, tied for the day’s third-highest mark.
Add Ben Rice to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Rockies OF Mickey Moniak
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals – 2:15 p.m. ET
Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Michael McGreevy (21 GS, 5-7, 4.38 xFIP, 29.9% hard-hit, 42.7 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 93 degrees, clear skies, and 10 mph winds out to LF
- Mickey Moniak’s 19 home runs on the season aren't a gaudy total, but he’s hit his stride with 3 HRs over his last 10 games and 2 in the past 5 contests.
- He’s elevated his .568 SLG to .652 over seven games in August.
- Cardinals SP Michael McGreevy could help Moniak stay hot, as the St. Louis starter allows 1.20 HR/9 and a 10.4% barrel rate (13th percentile).
- McGreevy ceded 3 home runs over his past four starts and has stumbled with a 9.49 ERA in his last three appearances.
- The right-handed hurler carries a solid 3.59 ERA on the season, but his 5.63 xERA suggested regression. That has arrived, proven by 7.50, 18.07, and 4.69 xERAs in his previous three outings.
- Meanwhile, Moniak sports a strong 11.4% barrel rate (73rd percentile), and this paired with a 74.5 average bat speed (76th percentile) leads to strong slugging chops. In fact, the Rockies outfielder carries a formidable .436 xSLG (69th percentile).
Add Mickey Moniak to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Kyle Schwarber looks to escape his home run cold spell, while Ben Rice is seeking his second consecutive day with a home run. Plus, Mickey Moniak carries a promising matchup among today’s most popular HR picks on PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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