Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Saturday, July 4

It’s virtually impossible to name a much better pairing than MLB games and the Fourth of July. As Independence Day festivities approach, all 30 big-league clubs are taking the field throughout Saturday’s slate. Which bats could bring fireworks via home runs? 

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Saturday, July 4, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Saturday, July 4 on PrizePicks now.  

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Saturday, July 4

It’s one thing to be strong or smart enough to hit a home run on occasion. It’s a whole different thing to possess the right process to get results like that on a regular basis.

There’s so much to consider when breaking down the anatomy of a homer. First and foremost, what’s the weather like, and how big is the ballpark? Additionally, does the batter have a friendly matchup against the pitcher? What was the quality of contact made, and at what angle? That’s just the beginning of a lengthy list. 

Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5.

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.

1. Tigers C Dillon Dingler
2. Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
3. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
4. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
5. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
6. Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
7. Cubs SS Dansby Swanson
8. Cardinals RF Jordan Walker

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Tigers C Dillon Dingler

Tigers vs. Rangers – 4:05 p.m. ET

Rangers Starting Pitcher: Kumar Rocker

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• Dingler’s ascension rolls on, as he has career-best marks for ISO (.262), SLG (.531), and wRC+ (136) in year No. 3 on the job.
• The former second-round MLB Draft selection actually fares better this season in righty-righty matchups, maintaining a 152 wRC+ with 15 home runs compared to a 99 wRC+ and 4 jacks vs. left-handed pitching.
• Getting the ball in the air with 8.6% more frequency than a year ago is helping Dingler make the most of his 12.2% barrel rate, the first time he’s been in double digits. 
• The rising star catcher resides in the 96th percentile for launch angle sweet-spot rate at 42.4% and owns a tremendous .545 xSLG (97th percentile).
• Rocker is average or worse when it comes to limiting loud contact, as he’s in the 50th percentile in barrel rate (7.5%) and the 23rd in hard-hit percentage (42.7%). 

Add Dillon Dingler to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

Rays vs. Astros – 7:10 p.m. ET

Rays Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• Alvarez is tracking for a career campaign in the power department, as he has 27 home runs in just 88 games. His highest total to date is 37 in 135 games back in 2022.
• Nineteen of those 27 homers have come off right-handers. The star slugger owns a 197 wRC+ and a .638 ISO against righties; Rasmussen’s FIP rises by 1.30 when seeing lefty hitters.
• Perhaps no one in the sport has more red in their Savant hitting profile than Alvarez, as evidenced by a 100th percentile ranking for xSLG (.713) and a 99th percentile threshold for average exit velocity (94.7 mph). 
• Alvarez has almost eliminated soft contact, with his 7.1% split being a personal low and just the second time he’s sat in the single digits. 
• The four-seam fastball has been one of Rasmussen’s weaker offerings, seeing foes slug .461 off it. Alvarez has a .639 SLG and .446 wOBA when one is dished up to him. 

Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Cardinals vs. Cubs – 8:08 p.m. ET

Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Kyle Leahy

MLB Weather Report: 71 degrees, 57% chance of rain, 6 mph north wind

• As of Friday, dating back to May 26, PCA leads the sport in total bases (102) and slugging (.756) alike. 
• The free-swinging star has upped his hard-hit rate to over 50% while also reaching new heights with a 74.8 mph bat speed. 
• Crow-Armstrong is remarkably consistent in regards to path, as his line drive rate has been between 19.0% and 19.9% in the last three years. His launch angle is also just 0.1 degrees different than in 2025. 
• A classic lefty-righty battle could factor into play here. A whopping 14 of Crow-Armstrong’s 19 home runs are off right-handers, and Leahy’s HR/9 increases from 0.68 vs. right-handed hitters to 1.31 vs. lefties. 
• Leahy lives on the edge by giving up a ton of hard contact (50.2% hard-hit rate, 11.8% barrel rate, 91.9 mph exit velo). 

Add Pete Crow-Armstrong to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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MLB’s crop of Fourth of July games may present some truly awesome moments for both teams and their fans. Are explosive showings from the bats of Dingler, Alvarez, and Crow-Armstrong in the cards? 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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