MLB action features a full 15-game slate on Saturday, August 1. The Cardinals vs. Blue Jays start festivities at 3:07 p.m. ET, while the final game of the day sees the Tigers vs. Athletics with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Saturday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Saturday, August 1, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Saturday, August 1
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
1. White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
2. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
3. Rangerd DH Joc Pederson
4. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
5. Mets OF Carson Benge
6. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
7. Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
8. Reds OF JJ Bleday
9. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
10. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Rangers DH Joc Pederson
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - 7:10 p.m. ET
Astros Starting Pitcher: Ronel Blanco (2 GS, 0-1, 4.33 xFIP, 47.8% hard-hit, 52.2 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Daikin Park.
- Astros SP Ronel Blanco has made just two starts since coming off Tommy John surgery, and they’ve not gone well. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate are both in the 15th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
- While he’s allowed only 6 hits in 10.0 IP, 4 of those have left the ballpark. He’s also surrendered a .564 xSLG and 21.7% barrel rate.
- Blanco’s still generating a high amount of swings and misses, but he’s struggling with command. His walk rate is in the 10th percentile, and he’s already issued 6 walks. That’s when he gets into trouble; in the 4 ABs where he’s had a runner on 1B, he’s given up a HR on three occasions.
- Joc Pederson has hit 19 of his 20 HRs this season off RHP. That includes a bomb last night in his only official at-bat as he crushed one 399 feet off Hunter Brown.
- The Rangers’ DH posted an ISO of .373 in the month of July, the third-highest mark among players with at least 50 plate appearances. He also ranked fifth in SLG (.678) and 13th in hard-hit rate (51.2%) while hitting 6 HR in only 65 plate appearances.
- Pederson posted a .305 average and 35.3% HR/FB rate over the last 31 days, and his .440 wOBA and 189 wRC+ are by far the best he’s registered in any month this season.
Add Joc Pederson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - 7:10 p.m. ET
Rangers Starting Pitcher: Jacob DeGrom (20 GS, 7-6, 3.13 xFIP, 40.3% hard-hit, 44.4 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Daikin Park.
- Rangers SP Jacob DeGrom has allowed a 12.5% HR/FB rate and 1.31 HR/9 this season. That’s despite not giving up a single HR in the month of July.
- DeGrom likely considers himself lucky to have not allowed a dinger in his 14.2 IP last month, however. Opponents put up a .419 SLG and 51.1% hard-hit rate, which is by far his worst number of the season. They also pulled his pitches at an alarming 48.9% clip.
- While DeGrom still has nasty stuff, those who pick up his pitches are hammering them. His hard-hit rate on the season ranks in the fifth percentile according to Baseball Savant, with a barrel rate of 9.0% that ranks in the 26th percentile.
- Yordan Alvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball. His Baseball Savant page is a sea of red, ranking in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. He also ranks in the 96th percentile or better in five other metrics.
- The Houston slugger is coming off a July where he posted the fifth-best ISO (.360) and second-best wRC+ (217) of any hitter in the majors.
- Alvarez has hit 26 HR off RHP this season, with a .333 ISO and and a .674 SLG in opposite-sided matchups.
- His split at home against RHP is downright terrifying — with a .783 SLG, 1.277 OPS, and 249 wRC+ while hitting .401 on the year.
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Braves 1B Matt Olson
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves - 7:16 p.m. ET
Nationals Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (9 GS, 3-7, 4.74 xFIP, 36.6% hard-hit, 37.6 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 80 degrees, 38% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds towards 3B
- Nationals SP Miles Mikolas is making a spot start, and he’s gotten roughed up this season. His last start saw him surrender 2 HR in just 4.0 IP, and he’s given up multiple dingers in each of his three starts since the end of May.
- Mikolas has a 17% HR/FB rate this season and has allowed 2.03 HR/9 to hitters. Those numbers balloon to 2.79 HR/9 and 25.0% HR/FB as a starter. That will happen when you rank in the bottom percentile per Baseball Savant in whiff rate and strikeout rate.
- He’s struggling against LHH even more. Hitters with the opposite-side advantage have a 40.1% hard-hit rate this season.
- Matt Olson has hit Mikolas hard in his career. In their 17 official ABs, Olson has slugged .706 with 2 HR and a pair of doubles.
- Olson is coming off a July where he hit just .226 at the plate but still slugged .528 thanks to 9 HR in 106 AB. He also posted a .302 ISO that ranked 15th among all hitters.
- Per Baseball Savant, Olson ranks in the 90th percentile or better this season in batting run value, xSLG, exit velo, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
- The Braves’ 1B racked up six TBs last night, including a 396-foot line drive into the Chop House in the first inning.
Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Yordan Alvarez can take another step towards his Triple Crown hopes today by going deep on the 10th anniversary of his trade to the Houston Astros. Joc Pederson may be auditioning for another team ahead of the trade deadline as he looks to stay red-hot, while Matt Olson has a great matchup with a pitcher he’s punished often.
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