An unusually busy Monday schedule on the diamond sees 15 contests (and 30 teams) to choose from for potential home runs. Tigers bats are popular on a windy day at Wrigley Field, and Kyle Schwarber is looking for his second bomb of the second half.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for all your MLB picks, and many hitters have already been targeted by users as some of the most popular home run picks on Monday’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Monday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick.
Make your MLB home run picks for Monday, July 20, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Runs Picks Today – Monday, July 20
Hitting a home run is one of the toughest achievements that a player can complete. As a result, it makes it extraordinarily difficult to predict which players can go yard daily.
Several significant factors can be attributed to a player’s likelihood of launching the ball over the fence. How hard has a player been hitting the baseball? Has the opposing starting pitcher been surrendering a ton of fly balls? Could weather conditions play a role?
Home run projections are labeled as Demons on PrizePicks, which comes with a higher payout. However, you can only choose “More” on home run projections, normally set at 0.5.
Here’s a look at the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks.
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Tigers OF Riley Greene
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Nationals OF James Wood
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Giants DH Rafael Devers
- Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 7 p.m. ET
Dodgers Starting Pitcher: Emmet Sheehan
MLB Weather Report: 83 degrees, sunny, and 5-8 mph winds out to CF
- Schwarber, as MLB’s home run leader, has hit a bomb once every 12.9 plate appearances (PAs) this season.
- The DH’s 44.9% hard-hit rate is eighth-best in MLB.
- According to Statcast Park Factors, Citizens Bank Park is MLB’s fourth-best park overall for home runs.
- Dodgers RHP Emmett Sheehan is in the 20th percentile or worse across baseball in barrel rate allowed (9.7%) and groundball rate (35.0%), wrapping into his 1.64 HR/9 allowed.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Tigers OF Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs – 8:05 p.m. ET
Cubs Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon
MLB Weather Report: 85 degrees, mostly sunny, and 14-20 mph winds out to left center
- Outward winds could greatly bump home run chances for all players in Tigers-Cubs, per Baseball America. Historically, it’s a 50% increase with wind speeds of at least 10 mph.
- Greene has a 57.5% fly ball rate and 47.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching over his last 30 days (64 PAs).
- Cubs RHP Jameson Taillon returns for the first time since June 7 tonight. Before his stint on the IL, he allowed 2.66 HR/9, a 14.3% barrel rate, and a 50.0% fly ball rate to opposing hitters.
Add Riley Greene to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Nationals OF James Wood
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland
MLB Weather Report: 96 degrees, mostly sunny, 5-10 mph winds in from RF
- Wood has been comfortable in left-on-left matchups recently, posting a .911 OPS, .289 ISO, and 53.8% hard-hit rate over his last 30 days.
- The outfielder has produced an .808 OPS and 1 career homer in 12 PAs against the Rockies at Coors Field.
- Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland’s high contact rate (79.2%) hasn't done him favors in 2026, leading to him ceding a 39.9% fly ball rate, 11.0% barrel rate, and 1.84 HR/9 across 17 starts.
Add James Wood to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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While Riley Greene and James Wood look to take advantage of weather-optimized hitting conditions, Kyle Schwarber may have a chance to inflict damage on a struggling hurler at home.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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