Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Thursday, May 21

Before a full lineup of matchups for the weekend, MLB features a shortened, seven-game slate on Thursday, May 21. The Guardians look to sweep a four-game series vs. the Tigers at 1:10 p.m. ET, while the Rockies vs. the Diamondbacks is the final contest of the day at 9:40 p.m. ET.

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate. After going yard in back-to-back games, will Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte stay hot vs. the Rockies?

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, May 21, on PrizePicks now.

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, May 21

Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.

How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Yankees OF Aaron Judge
2. Braves 1B Matt Olson
3. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
4. Angels OF Mike Trout
5. Mets OF Juan Soto
6. Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Athletics C Shea Langeliers
8. Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte
9. Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez
10. Rockies C Hunter Goodman

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees – 7:05 p.m. ET

Yankees Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon (2 GS, 0-1, 4.69 xFIP, 36.8% hard-hit, 22.2% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 62 degrees, 5% chance of rain, and 4 mph winds toward third base

• Yankees will put left-handed SP Carlos Rodon on the mound today, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Blue Jays with a .306 batting average against southpaws.
• Guerrero has struggled to go yard with only 3 HRs on the season, and he carries a 7.8% barrel rate (45th percentile) and a 43.5% hard-hit rate (62nd percentile) compared to 12.2% and 50.7% in 2025.
• Rodon has yielded a 5.63 ERA and 5 earned runs over only 8.0 innings pitched.
• However, the Yankees’ hurler has yet to give up a home run, carrying a 22.2% flyball rate allowed that’s well under the 38.7% league average.
• Plus, Vladdy Jr. doesn’t get much lift with a 33.1% career flyball rate.
• Ballpark Pal gives Yankee Stadium a -15% home run factor today, combining weather and ballpark factors.

Add Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Angels OF Mike Trout

Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 p.m. ET

Athletics Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino (10 GS, 2-5, 4.38 xFIP, 35.1% hard-hit, 36.8% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds out to LF

• Mike Trout snapped his 11-day home run drought on Tuesday, May 19. Will he hit his second big fly of the four-game series vs. the Athletics tonight?
• A’s SP Luis Severino has allowed 3 HRs over three starts this month.
• FanGraphs gives the veteran hurler 1.15 HR/9, which is slightly above the 1.07 league average.
• Severino yields a concerning 9.1% barrel rate (35th percentile), and Trout is prone to loud contact with his 22.4% barrel rate (98th percentile) and 50.4% hard-hit rate (90th percentile).
• Baseball Savant tabs a sinker (24.6%) as Severino’s most-used pitch, and Trout rakes to the tune of .304 against this pitch.
• Furthermore, Ballpark Pal has Angel Stadium with the top HR factor on Thursday (+5%). The right-handed Trout may benefit from winds pushing toward left field.

Add Mike Trout to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 p.m. ET

Rockies Starting Pitcher: Zach Agnos (13 appearances, 0-0, 4.71 xFIP, 37.1% hard-hit, 40.0% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Chase Field

• Ketel Marte has sent one over the fence in back-to-back outings. Will he make that three straight on Thursday night?
• Arizona’s second baseman has found his footing of late, totaling 8 hits over his previous 16 at-bats (.500).
• The Rockies will lean on their bullpen, as Colorado RP Zach Agnos will make the start. He carries a concerning 5.59 ERA and 4.48 xERA.
• While Agnos yielded only 3 HRs over 13 appearances, his 37.1% hard-hit and 40.0% flyball rates allowed are above the 33.3% and 38.7% league averages.
• Marte’s 14.6% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) is a threat, and his 47.9% hard-hit rate (83rd percentile) could make Agnos pay.
• The Rockies’ bullpen has surrendered 1.06 HR/9 (20th) and a 10.3% HR/FB (18th).

Add Ketel Marte to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

While Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has shown progress recently, his production with only 3 home runs may still be difficult to trust. Angels OF Mike Trout and Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte could be more promising HR predictions, led by Marte’s 2 big flies over the last two days.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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