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MLB enters the weekend with a full 15-game slate on Friday, July 31. The Yankees vs. Cubs begins the day at 2:20 p.m. ET while the Red Sox vs. Dodgers and Twins vs. Mariners will cap the night with 10:10 p.m. ET starts on the West Coast.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, July 31, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, July 31
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Rockies C Hunter Goodman
- Giants 1B Rafael Devers
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Rays 3B Junior Caminero
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays – 7:10 p.m. ET
Yankees Starting Pitcher: Erick Fedde (11 GS, 5-6, 4.85 xFIP, 29.6% hard-hit, 39.5 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Tropicana Field
- Junior Caminero, who carries 29 home runs on the season, is on a slugging cold streak with a 12-game home run drought.
- However, White Sox SP Erick Fedde could be a favorable matchup, as he yields 1.76 HR/9.
- Fedde has made 10 appearances as a reliever and 11 starts, making starts in his last two outings with 8.1 total innings pitched in the split. In those starts since July 20, Fedde ceded 4 big flies.
- The White Sox pitcher sports a 15.3% home run-to-fly ball ratio (HR/FB) allowed that’s above the 11.7% league average. Meanwhile, Caminero boasts an elite 24.5% HR/FB.
- Caminero has launched 22 of his 29 taters against right-handed pitching, and he slugs .672 and 1.066 against sweepers and sinkers. Fedde’s sweeper (37.2%) and sinker (30.0%) carry his highest usage rates.
Add Junior Caminero to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – 8:15 p.m. ET
Rangers Starting Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (20 GS, 10-8, 3.26 xFIP, 37.5% hard-hit, 33.5 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Minute Maid Park
- Since July 2, Rangers SP Nathan Eovaldi has a 4.50 ERA while giving up 5 HRs over four starts.
- Further, Eovaldi yielded alarming 40.0% and 42.9% HR/FBs in two of those starts, adding to his concerning 19.3% mark on the season.
- Yordan Alvarez is as dangerous as it gets with a league-best 35 home runs. He’s more than capable of getting lift, proven by his 23.0% HR/FB and 48.6% FB rate.
- Alvarez has a monster Baseball Savant page, ranking in at least the 90th percentile in 9 of 13 major categories. That includes an 18.6% barrel rate (99th percentile) and a 53.7% hard-hit rate (96th percentile).
- Eovaldi surrenders an 8.5% barrel rate (34th percentile) and a 40.2% hard-hit rate (38th percentile), via Baseball Savant.
- The Astros’ designated hitter sports mind-boggling 25.9% and 23.3% barrel rates against curveballs and cutters. That’s trouble for Eovaldi, whose curveball (22.1%) and cutter (19.3%) feature two of his three highest usage rates.
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Rockies C Hunter Goodman
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET
Royals Starting Pitcher: Michael Wacha (21 GS, 5-7, 4.38 xFIP, 29.9% hard-hit, 42.7 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 83 degrees, 34% chance of rain, and 6 mph winds toward 3B
- Hunter Goodman calls one of the best long ball environments home, but that could be ending soon with the trade deadline approaching. Despite Coors Field carrying the seventh-most home runs since 2024 in Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Goodman has hit only 13 of his 31 HRs at home this season.
- His home/away splits set off the alarms, as Goodman slashes .233/.310/.506 in Coors Field compared to .273/.341/.581 in away games.
- Royals SP Michael Wacha’s 1.09 HR/9 is around the 1.17 league average, while his 9.8% HR/FB allowed is well below the 11.7% league average.
- Furthermore, Wacha’s 6.6% barrel rate allowed (66th percentile) is below the league average.
- Wacha’s second-most used pitch is a changeup (23.8%), and Goodman bats only .212 against the pitch with a .424 SLG and underwhelming 26.1% hard-hit rate.
Add Hunter Goodman to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Junior Caminero could become the sixth player to reach 30 home runs tonight, joining the likes of Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Goodman. Alvarez may expose Nathan Eovaldi’s recent struggles against sluggers, while Goodman’s home/away splits cause pause in the home run department.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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