Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Friday, July 17

With the MLB All-Star Break in the rearview mirror, there are a whopping 15 games to follow on Friday. With one afternoon outing and a wide variety of nighttime contests on the docket, there’s bound to be a slew of highlights produced. Is there any power left after the Home Run Derby? 

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Friday, July 17, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, July 17 on PrizePicks now.  

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, July 17

Heading into Friday’s play, 25 players are already up to 20 home runs on the year. Two of them, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber and Astros DH Yordan Alvarez, are at 30+ as the unofficial second half of the campaign begins.

Swatting a ball out of the park is much easier said than done, but players can put themselves in better positions for success by optimizing launch angle, bat speed, barreling the baseball, and cutting through weather conditions or ballpark dimensions. Some have an easier time doing so than others. 

Which players could be in good positions to swat a homer on Friday? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.

1. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
2. Nationals OF James Wood
3. Pirates OF Esmerlyn Valdez
4. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
5. Cardinals RF Jordan Walker
6. White Sox 3B/1B Miguel Vargas
7. Cubs 3B Alex Bregman
8. Rays 3B Junior Caminero

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Pirates OF Esmerlyn Valdez

Pirates vs. Guardians – 7:10 p.m. ET

Guardians Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams

MLB Weather Report: 87 degrees, clear skies, 3 mph north-northeast wind

• Even with a 36.2% strikeout rate, Valdez maintains a .371 OBP and is producing an absolutely absurd .404 ISO.
• One of Pittsburgh’s most exciting prospects has clubbed 10 home runs in just 28 games, with 5 apiece coming against lefties and righties. 
• Valdez is going right up the middle with his swing, owning a 47.4% center rate on his directional batted balls. He does so with authority, as 50.9% of his events stem from hard contact.
• The 22-year-old’s xSLG (.580), barrel rate (29.8%), and bat speed (74.9 mph) all indicate that while he’s certainly benefited from good fortune thus far, his raw power is legitimate.
• Williams, while mostly successful overall this year, gets hit hard. He’s in the eighth percentile or worse in average exit velo (90.9 mph), barrel rate (11.9%), and hard-hit rate (48.6%). 

Add Esmerlyn Valdez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Cardinals RF Jordan Walker

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks – 9:40 p.m. ET

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• The first half of Walker’s season saw him blossom into a star, hitting 22 home runs with a .238 ISO and 143 wRC+. 
• This year’s Home Run Derby champ has a 22.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio and a 45.8% share of balls in play that were hit hard.
• Line drives have become an increasing part of Walker’s batted ball diet in recent years. He jumped 7% from 2024 to 2025 and another 7.1% from 2025 to 2026 (21.0% thus far). 
• No one swings a quicker bat than Walker (79.2 mph bat speed), and not many make louder contact (94.2 mph exit velo). 
• Kelly is surrendering a career-worst 1.92 HR/9 and ranks in just the first percentile in barrel rate at 14.1%. 

Add Jordan Walker to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

White Sox 3B/1B Miguel Vargas

White Sox vs. Blue Jays – 7:15 p.m. ET 

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher: Spencer Miles

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• After hitting 16 jacks in 138 games last year, Vargas is already up to 21 in 94 outings this season. That’s largely due to his ISO climbing from .167 to .248 and his SLG improving by 92 points.
• The former Los Angeles Dodger has upped his average exit velocity to a career-high 90.6 mph while also owning a 15.3% barrel rate. It’s the only time he’s been above 90 mph or 10%, respectively. 
• While he hits just .233 against right-handed pitching, 12 of Vargas’ 21 homers have come against traditional throwers.
• Vargas ranks in the 96th percentile or better in launch angle sweet spot rate (40.7%), xSLG (.544), and xwOBA (.401). 
• Miles has a hard time missing bats, owning an eighth-percentile whiff rate (19.2%) and a 29th-percentile chase rate (28.3%). 

Add Miguel Vargas to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

With baseball back in full swing, pun intended, there are tons of options for MLB home run picks today. Might the trio of Valdez, Walker, and Vargas be in prime position to club a homer by the end of the night? 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

With PrizePicks, just pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. On Team Picks, you can make predictions beyond players and pick MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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