The All-Star Break has come and gone, with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies squaring off to start the second half of the MLB season on Thursday, July 16, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The National League East showdown is the only game on the MLB schedule, with the Mets trying to turn around their season while the Phillies aim to gain ground on the division-leading Atlanta Braves.
Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to make your MLB picks today. Some hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.
Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Thursday, July 16, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions.
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Top Home Run Picks Today for Mets vs. Phillies – Thursday, July 16
The game’s best overall players took the field in the All-Star Game earlier this week, and Jordan Walker outdueled Kyle Schwarber for the Home Run Derby crown on Monday. Could Thursday see Schwarber pick up where he left off?
The Mets-Phillies matchup features some of baseball's biggest power hitters, with Schwarber and Mets OF Juan Soto among the league leaders in power-hitting categories. The Phillies are seventh in the majors with 124 home runs at the break, while the Mets are 16th with 112.
Which players could be in good positions to swat a homer in Thursday’s lone game? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5.
Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at the time of writing.
- Mets OF Juan Soto
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
- Mets SS Francisco Lindor
- Mets C Francisco Alvarez
Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.
MLB Weather Report at Citizens Bank Park: 93 degrees, 28% chance of rain, 11 mph west wind
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.
Mets OF Juan Soto
Phillies Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Mets OF Juan Soto has 5 HR in 45 career at-bats against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, more than the rest of the Mets combined.
- Soto’s 21 home runs lead the Mets and are the seventh most in the National League. He has 4 HR since July 3, sixth-highest in baseball.
- While Soto’s Mets have struggled this season, the OF’s numbers are currently better than they were last season. His ISO (.272) is 10 points higher, while his BABIP (.276) is currently 6 points higher. His K% of 12.9 is the lowest of his career.
- Soto’s hard-hit percentage is 43.4% (14th) while his barrel percentage is 14.8% (13th). Both lead the Mets.
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Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Mets Starting Pitcher: Christian Scott
- Schwarber enters the second half of the season as the MLB leader in HRs with 32. He finished last year with a career-high and NL-leading 56 of them.
- His 88 combined homers since the beginning of last season are the most in baseball.
- Schwarber’s .314 ISO is the best in the National League and second in baseball, only trailing the Yankees' Ben Rice.
- The former Chicago Cub routinely makes loud contact, as evidenced by his 53.5% hard-hit percentage (seventh) and a barrel percentage of 19.3% (third).
- Mets starter Christian Scott ranks in just the 25th percentile in chase rate (27.9%), giving hitters more opportunities to attack pitches in the strike zone.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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The Mets and Phillies get MLB’s second half started with a nationally televised game, the only game on the MLB schedule. Will Kyle Schwarber build on his runner-up finish in the Home Run Derby and MLB-leading 32 home runs by going deep again on Thursday night?
Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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