Our tennis predictions for Thursday, August 6, include Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe vs. Arthur Rinderknech.
Arguably the top men’s match of the day will be a top-20 battle between Jodar and Musetti to open Montreal’s night session. Then, Tiafoe will be in action in what should be a competitive battle against Rinderknech.
Below, we’ll break down our top tennis predictions for Thursday’s Canadian Open matches, including winner payouts, key stats, and match predictions for PrizePicks.
Make your Canadian Open predictions on PrizePicks for Thursday’s matches now!
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Canadian Open Predictions, Picks Today – Thursday, August 6
Before we get into our tennis predictions for Thursday, here’s a quick look at the two matches we’re focusing on and the consensus favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can pick winners on each match.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Canadian Open Prediction — Thursday, August 6
Match Winner Payouts: Jodar 1.66x | Musetti 2.08x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering Event: Jodar 30-12 | Musetti 15-8
Head-to-Head Record: Jodar Leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel
Rafael Jodar is enjoying a breakout season at just 19 years old. At the beginning of January, he was ranked outside the top 150, but here he is in August coming in as the world No. 15.
Jodar really took off during the European clay swing, posting a 19-4 record that culminated in his first major quarterfinal at the French Open. While he followed that up with a third-round exit at Wimbledon, he’s started the summer hard court season on the right note after finishing runner-up in Washington.
Lorenzo Musetti is the higher-ranked player (No. 13), but he's still in the early stages of his comeback after a multi-month injury layoff that forced him to miss both the French Open and Wimbledon.
Musetti made his return in Washington and did well to reach the quarterfinals. However, he fell in three sets to none other than today's opponent, Jodar.
Historically, hard courts have been Musetti’s weakest surface (51.4% career win rate). While he reached the quarterfinals at the 2025 US Open and 2026 Australian Open, he’s just 3-8 versus top-20 opponents on hard courts over the past 52 weeks and 13-28 for his career.
As a teenager, Jodar doesn’t have a long track record in tour-level hard court events, but his run in Washington is obviously a positive sign, and beating Musetti so recently should give him extra confidence.
Overall, between Musetti’s recent recovery from injury and relatively modest track record on this surface, the edge would appear to go to an in-form Jodar. Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Jodar is projected for a 63.8% win probability over Musetti.
Make your Jodar vs. Musetti ATP Montreal prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti Pick for Canadian Open on Thursday
Jodar vs. Musetti Pick – 22.5 Total Games
In Washington, Jodar defeated Musetti 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 across 24 total games.
While Jodar has gone 5-1 on hard courts this summer, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing. Outside a routine win over a past-his-prime Kei Nishikori, all five other matches have gone three sets and/or included a tiebreak.
In the last round here in Montreal, the Spaniard needed three sets to advance past world No. 59 Corentin Moutet in a 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 victory (26 total games).
Similarly, Musetti’s last three matches have gone three sets or featured a tiebreak.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Arthur Rinderknech Canadian Open Prediction — Thursday, August 6
Match Winner Payouts: Tiafoe 1.49x | Rinderknech 2.5x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering Event: Tiafoe 31-14 | Rinderknech 14-17
Head-to-Head Record: Tied 1-1
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel
Tiafoe bounced back from his one-and-done performance in Washington with a three-set win over Marin Cilic to begin his Montreal run.
The world No. 20 is now 16-8 on hard courts this season, and he’s coming off a positive grass season that included a title in Halle, so his recent form isn’t in question despite his disappointing result in Washington.
On the other hand, Arthur Rinderknech enters with a sub-.500 record despite being ranked inside the top 30. Wednesday’s three-set victory over Miomir Kecmanovic puts his 2026 hard court record at just 6-7.
It’s not like Rinderknech was crushing it on other surfaces coming into Montreal, either, as he posted a 4-6 record across his previous six events on clay and grass. In fact, the Frenchman hasn’t strung together more than two consecutive wins at any point this calendar year.
Rinderknech is also 2-5 versus top-20 opponents in 2026.
In all, this could be a great opportunity for Tiafoe to take advantage of a struggling opponent. Tennis Abstract gives Tiafoe a 64.2% chance of winning this match.
Make your Tiafoe vs. Rinderknech ATP Montreal prediction on PrizePicks now!
Frances Tiafoe vs. Arthur Rinderknech Pick for Canadian Open on Thursday
Tiafoe vs. Rinderknech Pick – 23.5 Total Games
Tiafoe’s two hard court matches this summer have gone to a deciding set, resulting in 29 and 28 total games. Neither opponent was ranked inside the top 50.
In the American’s three Wimbledon matches before this hard-court swing, both players won at least one set in all of them.
Despite Rinderknech’s underwhelming record, his recent matches have generally been competitive. Over his past nine matches, both players have won a set and/or played a tiebreak. His match on Wednesday went 33 total games.
Among the top 50 players, Tiafoe has logged the fourth-most tiebreaks (30), while Rinderknech is tied for the 10th-most (24). The Frenchman has tallied this many despite competing in just 31 matches before this event.
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Make Your Canadian Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
We get a pair of compelling men’s matches in Thursday’s night session at ATP Montreal. Which players will advance to the Round of 16 at the Canadian Open?
Don’t wait until Thursday’s matches start — make your tennis predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!
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