First pitch for the San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves game is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 21, with Atlanta entering as a home favorite at Truist Park, with a 1.70x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Tonight’s game continues a key series between two National League teams fighting for playoff positioning. Atlanta looks to build on its strong 30-19 home record, while San Diego tries to claw back to .500 after having a rather disappointing first half to the season.
Below, we’ll break down our Padres vs. Braves prediction and winner pick for Tuesday’s MLB game, including top player picks for PrizePicks for starting pitchers Reynaldo López and Walker Buehler.
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Padres vs. Braves Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 21
The Padres are sitting at 49-51 and have been stuck in the middle of a crowded NL West where everyone is chasing the division‑leading Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres taking the division is a long shot, sitting 13.5 games back, but they’re only 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race.
The Braves are 58-41, holding first place in the NL East and sitting just 3 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves offense this season is fully clicking, as they own the third-best run differential in baseball.
With Reynaldo López on the mound, the Atlanta Braves are looking to build on their strong 30–19 home record at Truist Park and extend their current win streak to 3 games in front of the home crowd.
Padres vs. Braves Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 21
The Braves enter Tuesday's game as a favorite against the Padres, returning a 1.70x payout with a win, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Padres vs. Braves game on PrizePicks.
- Run Line: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (2.40x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.76x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Padres 2.19x | Braves 1.70x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Padres vs. Braves Prediction on Winner – 7/21/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind tonight’s Padres vs. Braves pick on the winner for Tuesday, July 21.
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- In his MLB career, when Reynaldo López is pitching at home as a favorite of -125 or higher, he is 19-9.
- In the 2026 season, when the Padres take on a team above .500 as an underdog, they are just 6-19.
- When the Padres take on a team outside of their division on the road as an underdog this season, they’re just 9-15 straight up.
- Throughout his MLB career, when Padres pitcher Walker Buehler starts vs. a team above .500, he is just 5-11.
- Walker Buehler has continued to struggle on the road this year, posting a 6.50 ERA away from home compared to a much more respectable 4.58 mark at home.
- That extends the same split pattern we saw last season when he owned a 3.84 ERA at home but a 6.12 ERA on the road.
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Padres vs. Braves Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/21/26
Here are the top Padres vs. Braves picks to target on Tuesday, July 21. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks are highlighted by starting pitchers Reynaldo López and Walker Buehler
Braves SP Reynaldo López – 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Braves starter Reynaldo López has been extremely serviceable this season, surrendering just 7 ER across his last 23 innings pitched while striking out 18.
In 111 plate appearances this season against right‑handed hitters, López has held them in check, allowing only a 4.7% barrel percentage, a 41% hard‑hit rate, and an impressive 25.6% fly‑ball percentage.
Overall this season, across 260 plate appearances, López has done a terrific job of keeping the ball on the ground, owning a 39.1% ground‑ball rate that limits big innings.
Padres hitters Fernando Tatís Jr., Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado are hitting a combined 5‑for‑26 against López in their careers.
His fastball, thrown over 55% of the time generates excellent movement and has allowed just a .252 average against despite sitting at 94 mph. Against right‑handed fastballs this season, the San Diego Padres own a disappointing .250 BABIP and a 30% ground‑ball rate, further reinforcing López’s ability to manage contact.
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Padres SP Walker Buehler: 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Across his last 80 plate appearances, Walker Buehler has been annihilated, allowing a 15.7% barrel percentage paired with a 47.1% hard‑hit percentage and an ugly 39.2% fly‑ball rate.
Lacking swing‑and‑miss ability, Buehler owns just a 20% strikeout rate across those 80 appearances with a whopping 14% walk rate, which has translated into 20 earned runs allowed over his last 11 innings pitched before entering the All‑Star break.
Left‑handed hitters have destroyed Buehler this season, with his fastball thrown 21% of the time to lefties leading to a .355 batting average against. Paired with his changeup, thrown 17% of the time and resulting in a .353 average against, this creates a dangerous profile versus the Braves’ left‑handed threats.
On top of that, Braves hitters Austin Riley and Michael Harris are a combined 10‑for‑23 against Buehler.
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Two teams head into the second game of a new series on Tuesday, with Reynaldo Lopez looking to have an edge over Walker Buehler on the mound, as he's struggled in road starts.
Padres vs. Braves is just one of the games for you to get all your MLB action on at PrizePicks.
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