Reds vs. Cubs Prediction, MLB Picks for Friday, August 28

The first pitch of the matchup between the Cincinnati Reds (63-71) and the Chicago Cubs (76-58) is set for 2:20 p.m. ET on Friday, August 28, with the Cubs favored and returning a 1.49x payout to win via PrizePicks.

The Cubs and Reds will begin a three-game set on Friday. For Cincinnati, it might be tough to get back into contention, but Chicago holds the first National League Wild Card spot and still aspires to win the NL Central.

Below, we'll break down our Reds vs. Cubs prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Reds vs. Cubs prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game.

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Reds vs. Cubs Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, August 28

The Reds will start Rhett Lowder (4.74 xFIP in 107.0 IP, 23 appearances, 20 starts) for the series opener. Lowder caught lightning in a bottle when the Reds called him up in August 2024, finishing the year with a 1.17 ERA and a 3.3% barrel rate allowed in six starts. 

Elbow and oblique injuries prevented him from pitching in 2025, and it seems like that hurt his momentum, as he has a 5.14 xERA in 2026.

One reason for his regression could be the loss of effectiveness of his sinker and slider, his most frequently thrown pitches. In 2024, he allowed a .271 wOBA on his sinker, which has risen to a .388 wOBA this year. He also allowed a .295 wOBA on his slider, which is now a .362 wOBA.

There was optimism for the Reds early in the season. On April 30, they were 20-11, the second-best record in the league. They've gone 43-60 since then, however, and are nine games out of a Wild Card spot. This roster has a lot of talent but has struggled to stay on the field. SS Elly De La Cruz, 1B Spencer Steer, and SP Nick Lodolo have all missed time.

The Cubs will counter with David Peterson (4.06 xFIP in 118.1 IP, 26 appearances, 17 starts). The story of Peterson’s season has two parts, with the first being his horrendous start with the Mets.

In seven of his 16 appearances, he allowed 4 earned runs in 3 innings and had a 6.17 ERA. In his second start with the Cubs, he allowed 10 earned runs. After that point, he's been excellent to the tune of a 2.20 ERA and 3.89 FIP in eight outings.

The Cubs’ inconsistency has made them a frustrating watch. They had an excellent start, going 27-12, and held a 3.5-game lead in the NL Central before losing 22 of 29 and falling to eight games out. They started climbing back and were as close as three games behind on August 14 but have since lost seven of their last 11.

What could help Chicago down the stretch is getting some key players back from injury, including SS Dansby Swanson, SP Justin Steele, and SP Edward Cabrera.

Reds vs. Cubs Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, August 28

The Cubs enter Friday’s game as home favorites against the Reds, returning a 1.49x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Reds vs. Cubs game on PrizePicks.

Play the Reds vs. Cubs spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Reds vs. Cubs Prediction on Over/Under – 8/28/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Reds vs. Cubs prediction on the run total for Friday, August 28.

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Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Eight or more runs have been scored in five of these teams' eight matchups this season.
• The Reds have hit well against left-handed pitchers, leading the league in barrel rate (9.7%) and sitting eighth in wOBA (.329).
• In a pair of starts this season against the Reds, Peterson's ceded 9 earned runs over 8 innings.
• Lowder struggles to get hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, forcing just a 27.2% chase rate (15th percentile). The Cubs show discipline at the plate, ranking fourth in chase rate (27.8%).
• The Reds also don't swing at bad pitches, ranking third in chase rate (27.7%). This could be a challenge for Peterson, who induces a 29.4% chase rate (38th percentile).

Reds vs. Cubs Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 8/28/26

Here are the top Reds vs. Cubs picks to target on Friday, August 28. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Tyler Stephenson and Ian Happ.

Reds C Tyler Stephenson vs. Cubs: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• After a slow start to August, Stephenson is getting hot with 6 hits in his last 16 at-bats.
• Stephenson has an excellent history against Peterson, going 6-for-12 with 2 doubles.
• Stephenson's 45.7% hard-hit rate ranks in the 77th percentile. Peterson allows a 41.2% hard-hit rate (28th percentile).
• Peterson throws the four-seamer and sinker for a combined 55% of his pitches to righties. The righty Stephenson has excelled against both pitches, including a .542 xSLG against the four-seamer and a .743 xSLG against the sinker.

Add Tyler Stephenson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Cubs LF Ian Happ vs. Reds: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Happ is red-hot lately, ranking 11th in wOBA (.547) and 14th in xSLG (.669) since August 20.
• The Cubs’ left fielder rarely swings at pitches outside the strike zone, owning a 24.2% chase rate (84th percentile).
• That discipline at the plate helps produce a 12.5% walk rate. Peterson’s struggles with control are evident in his 9.2% walk rate.
• As a switch hitter, Happ will hit left-handed against the right-handed Peterson. He’s been much better as a lefty (.257 wOBA) than as a righty (.239 wOBA).

Add Ian Happ to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Reds vs. Cubs Picks on PrizePicks

The Reds could make a huge statement and climb closer to the Wild Card race if they win this series against the Cubs. Can Cincinnati make a good impression on Friday night? 

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Reds vs. Cubs picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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