Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for AL Wild Card Game 2 – Wednesday, 9/30

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees continue their best-of-three AL Wild Card series at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 30, and the matchup will air on NBC. The Yankees are home favorites with a 1.69x returned payout if they win, per PrizePicks.

The Red Sox stayed within striking distance for most of Game 1, but they never truly threatened the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers would ultimately pull away with a 5-run eighth inning en route to a 9-0 victory.

New York SP Cam Schlittler was lights out, logging 6.1 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts, while DH Ben Rice nearly single-handedly provided all the offense behind 2 home runs and 6 RBIs. 

Boston needs a win on Wednesday to keep its season alive. Can the Red Sox quickly regroup and bounce back to force a Game 3?

Below, we'll break down our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Wednesday’s AL Wild Card Game 2 matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now!

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Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for AL Wild Card Game 2 – Wednesday, September 30

While the Yankees put a beatdown on the Red Sox in Game 1, most of the damage came late against the bullpen, as SP Payton Tolle kept them in the game early by allowing 1 earned run over 4.2 innings. 

Boston may need a similar performance or better from SP Sonny Gray to have a shot tonight, and he could be up to the task. Despite being 36 years old, Gray has produced a fantastic 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, making this one of the best campaigns of his career.

That being said, the numbers under the hood are more mixed, as both his 3.92 SIERA and 3.87 xERA are over a full run higher than his ERA. 

Per Baseball Savant, the right-hander has recorded a solid 6.7% walk rate (79th percentile) and 46.4% ground ball rate (73rd percentile), but that’s offset by a middling 21.8% strikeout rate (43rd percentile) and 38.3% hard-hit rate (49th percentile).

Meanwhile, things aren’t about to get much easier for Boston’s bats, as New York will now turn to SP Max Fried to start Game 2. 

Over 20 starts this season, the left-hander has locked opposing batters down to the tune of a 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Similar to Gray, Fried doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s posted above-average marks in strikeout (24.0%) and walk (7.6%) rates alongside a high ground ball clip (49.8%). 

Where he’s really shined, though, is in suppressing hard contact. Fried has been in the 96th percentile or better in barrel rate (2.4%), hard-hit rate (29.8%), and average exit velocity (85.9 mph). That’s contributed to him finishing out the regular season with a 2.51 xERA in the 98th percentile.      

Boston’s normally strong bullpen let themitdown on Tuesday, but the club avoided using its best relievers in RP Aroldis Chapman and RP Garrett Whitlock. SP Garrett Crochet is also available despite last pitching on April 25. Likewise, New York has a fresh bullpen after using just two relievers in the blowout.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, their recent woes at the plate continued on Tuesday. Over the last month, the team has ranked last in team wOBA (.291) and 25th in ISO (.137). They also may also be without leadoff hitter OF Roman Anthony, who exited last night’s game with hand/wrist discomfort.  

On the other hand, the Yankees didn’t miss OF Aaron Judge for at least one night after racking up 9 runs last night. New York averaged the eighth-most runs per game in the regular season (4.62) despite missing Judge for all but 66 games.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under for AL Wild Card – Wednesday, September 30

The Yankees enter Wednesday’s game as a home favorite against the Red Sox, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Red Sox vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction on Winner for AL Wild Card – 9/30/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction on the winner for Wednesday, September 30.

• On Tuesday, the Red Sox were outhit by the Yankees 12-3.
• As a team, Boston has slashed .219/.295/.356 over the past month.  Red Sox batters have produced a 66 wRC+ across the last two weeks. During this stretch, they’ve ranked 27th in xwOBA (.278) and 30th in hard-hit rate (27.0%).
• The Red Sox went just 12-12 in September, cooling off considerably from their hot play over the summer.
• The Yankees’ hitters have recorded the third-best barrel rate (10.0%) over the past 14 days and have posted the third-best ISO (.176) vs. right-handed pitching this season.
• Since returning from the injured list in late August, Fried has logged a 2.41 xERA while allowing a mere 4.2% barrel rate and 25.4% hard-hit rate over his last five starts. In two 2026 starts against Boston, he allowed 1 earned run across 11.2 innings.
• Gray has a 4.83 xERA over his last six starts, allowing a 9.7% barrel rate and 41.7% hard-hit rate. 

Lock in your Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for AL Wild Card Game 2 PrizePicks: 9/30/26

Here are the top Red Sox vs. Yankees picks to target on Wednesday, September 30. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ben Rice and Max Fried.

Yankees DH Ben Rice vs. Red Sox: 6.5 Fantasy Score

• Rice continued his red-hot form at the plate in Game 1, racking up 44 fantasy points. He’s now scored 12+ fantasy points in three of his last five games.
• For the final month of the regular season, he produced an absurd 195 wRC+.
• Over the last 14 days, Rice has put up a .422 xwOBA, 54.2% hard-hit rate, and a 16.7% barrel rate. That’s helped him to a whopping .382 ISO over that span.
• For the season, he's recorded a .378 xwOBA (96th percentile) and .511 xSLG (97th percentile).
• The slugger had 41 home runs in the regular season, and 30 of those came against right-handed pitching.

Add Ben Rice + Yankees to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Yankees SP Max Fried vs. Red Sox: 17 Pitching Outs

• Over his last two starts, Fried has logged 7.0 and 6.2 innings pitched. He reached 97 pitches in his final outing, so his workload may not be limited in this one.
• The Yankees let Schlittler throw 117 pitches in Game 1, which was a career high. It's clear the team won't be afraid to lean on its starting pitchers. This is further backed by the Yankees having only seven relief pitchers on their Wild Card roster.
• Red Sox project to counter the left-handed Fried with a righty-heavy lineup. However, Fried has a 2.49 xERA, 29.6% strikeout rate, and 1.8% barrel rate against right-handed batters. He also has a slightly higher K-rate in the split (24.8%).
• In addition to all its other recent struggles at the plate, Boston has the ninth-highest strikeout rate over the last couple of weeks (25.2%).

Pick Max Fried + Yankees to win on PrizePicks!

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The Boston Red Sox are one game away from elimination. Will the New York Yankees finish them off, or can Boston stay alive to force a Game 3?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Red Sox vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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