Ahead of Wednesday’s second leg Champions League knockout playoff match between Real Madrid vs. Benfica, Madrid find themselves up 1-0, needing only a draw to advance to the Round of 16.
There are rumblings of Real Madrid F Kylian Mbappe expected to miss Wednesday’s match due to a lingering knee injury; that’s certainly worth keeping an eye on before locking in your prediction on this match.
In front of a raucous home crowd at the Bernabéu, Real Madrid is favored to emerge as victors and advance, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.
Before Real Madrid vs. Benfica gets underway at 3 p.m. ET live on Paramount+, now is the time to lock in your Champions League pick on the match.
Below, we’ll discuss our Real Madrid vs. Benfica prediction and PrizePicks UCL picks for Wednesday’s playoff showdown. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make your picks on players, winners, goal totals, and other stats!
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Real Madrid vs. Benfica Prediction, Spread, Total for Champions League
A lack of goals in the first leg of Real Madrid vs. Benfica wasn’t due to a shortage of attempts from the Madrid side, as the top-flight Spanish club supplied 15 shots and 8 shots on target.
However, Benfica GK Anatoliy Trubin and the team's back line did their best to limit the damage at home; but their offense will need to come alive, with just 10 goals across 9 matches in their Champions League campaign so far.
Real Madrid saw their eight-game winning streak in La Liga end over the weekend, and manager Alvaro Arbeloa could be under fire if his club is drops this match to Benfica in the Champions League.
It was a second-half goal by Vinicius Junior that made the difference in the first leg, and if the first matchup was a preview of what to expect in the second leg, we’ll get a heated showdown again.
Manager Jose Mourinho was shown a red card in the first leg for Benfica, and Gianluca Prestianni was suspended for Wednesday’s match after allegations of racist language after Junior's goal.
Staying disciplined on defense and taking advantage of Madrid’s aggressive attack is going to be crucial for Benfica in a hostile environment, already trailing by one goal on aggregate.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Spread, Total Goals, BTTS Payouts
Real Madrid enters Wednesday’s UCL match as solid home favorites, returning a 1.58x payout ($100 entry pays out $158) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Benfica are road underdogs with a 4.34x ($434 payout on a $100 entry) payout if they achieve the upset victory vs. the most successful club in UEFA Champions League history.
Winner Payout: Real Madrid – 1.58x | Tie – 4.16x | Benfica – 4.34x
Spread: Real Madrid -1.5 (2.63x Payout)
Total Goals: 3.5 (Over – 2.27x)
Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.56x | No 2.27x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. Does not include extra time or penalties.
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Real Madrid vs. Benfica Prediction for Champions League – Wednesday, Feb. 25
Here are some stats to know to help you lock in your Real Madrid vs. Benfica prediction for the Champions League on Wednesday, February 25, on PrizePicks Team Picks — now available in 34 states.
- Real Madrid has been nearly unbeatable at the Bernabéu this season, notching an impressive 14-0-2 record at home in all competitions.
- Of Benfica's three Champions League wins this year, none have come on the road.
- According to Fotmob.com, Madrid is tallying the third-most touches in the opposition’s box (304) and fifth-most shots on target per match (7.2) in the UCL.
- Benfica is sitting at just 24th in shots on target per match (4.6) and is converting only 8.1% of their shots into goals.
- Over their last six matches in the Champions League, Real Madrid is 3-0-3, and one of those defeats came against Benfica in the league phase.
- Following a 2-0-3 start to the new year, Benfica has gone 5-1-1 against all opponents in their previous seven contests.
- Benfica has either scored 2-plus goals or been shut out in all nine of their Champions League matches so far.
- Among teams in the UCL, Madrid is fifth in average possession (58.0%) and eighth in xG difference (6.4).
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Projected Lineups for UCL Today
Here are the projected Real Madrid vs. Benfica lineups — assuming Mbappe is out — for Wednesday's Champions League match. Lineups are not official.
Real Madrid Lineup vs. Benfica: Projected 4-4-2
- Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
- Defense: Alvaro Carreras, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asencio, Trent Alexander-Arnold
- Midfield: Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Guler, Federico Valverde
- Forwards: Vinicius Junior, Gonzalo Garcia
Benfica Lineup vs. Real Madrid: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Anatoliy Trubin
- Defense: Samuel Dahl, Nicolas Otamendi, Tomas Araujo, Amar Dedic
- Midfield: Nezo Barrenechea, Leandro Barreiro, Andreas Schjelderup, Rafa Silva, Fredrik Aursnes
- Forwards: Vangelis Pavlidis
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Picks for Champions League: Wednesday, February 25
Here are the top Real Madrid vs. Benfica picks for Wednesday, February 25. PrizePicks Player Picks are headlined by Vinicius Junior, Anatoliy Trubin, and Arda Guler
Real Madrid F Vinicius Junior vs. Benfica
Vinicius Junior Projections via PrizePicks: 2.5 Shots (Goblin), 0.5 Goal + Assist (Goblin), 1.5 Shots on Target (Demon)
- If Kylian Mbappe is sidelined as expected (or even limited), Vinicius Junior will be the driving force of Madrid’s attack.
- Vinny has been gradually more aggressive in recent matches, logging 3-plus shots in five straight UCL starts and four of his last five outings in La Liga.
- Has scored or assisted in three consecutive La Liga contests and two of his last three starts in the Champions League.
- After Junior scored the only goal in last week's game vs. Benfica, he got objects thrown at him from the crowd, then was confronted by Benfica's Gialuca Prestianni, who allegedly hurled racist remarks at Junior. After UEFA investigation, Prestianni is suspended for this match, and Junior may have extra motivation and opportunity in front of his home crowd.
Benfica GK Anatoliy Trubin vs. Real Madrid
Anatoliy Trubin Projections via PrizePicks: 2.5 Goalie Saves (Goblin), 1.5 Goals Allowed (Goblin)
- Since the start of the league phase, Anatoliy Trubin has made 3-plus saves in six of his nine starts in the Champions League.
- Trubin has recorded 4-plus saves in both meetings against Real Madrid in the UCL.
- In his last three matches in the Champions League, Trubin has allowed 2-plus goals in two of them.
- Real Madrid has produced 15-plus shots in seven of their eight UCL matches and 6-plus shots on target in six of those contests.
Real Madrid MF Arda Guler vs. PrizePicks
Projections via PrizePicks: 1.5 Shots (Goblin), 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 0.5 Goal + Assist (Demon)
- Arda Guler is a key contributor for Real Madrid, and he’s delivered multiple shots in each of his last three starts in the Champions League.
- Guler has tallied 2 or more shots in back-to-back matchups versus Benfica in UCL competition.
- Guler does handle some set pieces and corners for Madrid, which is why he’s second in chances created (25) on the team across UCL matchups.
- Against La Liga opponents, Guler is tied for the most assists (7) and chances created (56) on Madrid’s roster.
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Make Your Real Madrid vs. Benfica Prediction on PrizePicks
Real Madrid and Benfica had tempers flare in the first leg of their Champions League matchup, resulting in a suspension for Benfica. That could set us up for a must-watch battle on Wednesday in a tight 1-0 matchup tilted toward Madrid on aggregate.
Even without Mbappe, Real Madrid is still favored to win this match and heavily favored to move onto the next round.
You can make your Real Madrid vs. Benfica picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money on UEFA Champions League games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct.
With Team Picks, make UCL predictions on winners, spreads, total goals and more, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Champions League predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
