Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for ALDS Game 3 – Wednesday, October 7

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees continue their best-of-five American League Division Series at 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 7, and the matchup will air on TBS. On the brink of elimination, the Yankees are home favorites with a 1.56x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks, with the over/under set at 7.5 — a run higher than Game 1 or 2.

The Rays enter Game 3 with a 2-0 series lead after winning both games at home, leaving New York just one game away from elimination.

The Rays won the series opener 1-0 behind a masterful performance from SP Drew Rasmussen, then took advantage of a four-error night from the Yankees' defense for a 5-2 win in Game 2. 

New York needs three straight wins to advance to the ALCS, including two at home and a potential Game 5 in St. Petersburg, Fla.. Can they stay alive tonight, or will Tampa Bay complete the series sweep? 

Below, we'll break down our Rays vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Wednesday’s ALDS Game 3 matchup, including the favorite, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Rays vs. Yankees picks for ALDS Game 3 on PrizePicks now!

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Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for ALDS Game 3

The Yankees enter Wednesday’s game as a home favorite against the Rays, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $156 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Rays vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Rays vs. Yankees prediction on winner, over/under, and more on PrizePicks

Tampa Bay will turn to SP Nick Martinez on the mound in Game 3, who posted a fantastic 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 31 starts during the regular season. However, his underlying metrics are a bit more of a mixed bag.

Martinez’s whole game is inducing soft contact, as he’s allowed a 32.9% hard-hit rate (88th percentile), 6.8% barrel rate (62nd percentile), and 87.0 mph average exit velocity (86th percentile), per Baseball Savant.

However, with that comes a poor 15.1% strikeout rate (15.1%) and 17.4% whiff rate (2nd percentile). He also induces just a 36.5% ground-ball rate (17th percentile), which leaves him susceptible to the long ball when opposing batters are able to square him up.

As a result, Martinez's 3.98 xERA is in the 55th percentile and is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. It will be interesting to see if the right-hander can keep working his magic against a Yankees lineup that still packs plenty of punch even without OF Aaron Judge. 

New York will have SP Max Fried on the mound, who’s coming off a strong performance against the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series. In the series clincher, Fried allowed just 1 earned run across 6.0 innings with 6 strikeouts.

The southpaw is also coming off a stellar regular season that included a 2.51 xERA (98th percentile), 29.8% barrel rate (97th percentile), and 2.4% barrel rate (99th percentile). His 24.0% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate were both above-average marks, too.

Both teams were solid at the plate this year, with the Yankees averaging the eighth-most runs per game (4.60), and the Rays averaging the 12th-most (4.52). However, the Bronx Bombers exhibited far more pop, ranking first in ISO (.180) compared to Tampa sitting at 24th (.145).    

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Rays vs. Yankees Prediction on Winner for ALDS Game 3 Tonight

Here are the key MLB stats and trends behind our Rays vs. Yankees prediction on the over/under, set at 7.5 runs for Wednesday, October 7, in this battle between AL East foes.

• The Rays and Yankees have combined for just 8 total runs across the first two games in this series — just half a run above this full-game total.
• New York’s hitters posted a 97 wRC+ over the final two weeks in the regular season.
• Rays starter Martinez has excelled on the road this season, posting a 3.33 xERA in away games compared to a 4.75 xERA at home. 
• The Tampa right-hander made three starts against the Yankees in the regular season and allowed just 4 earned runs over 16.2 innings.
• The Rays might not be afraid to go to their bullpen early if necessary, as the majority of their relievers have yet to pitch in the series. Per FanGraphs, their active relievers combined for a 3.44 xERA this season.
• Yankees pitcher Max Fried allowed just 3 hard hits across 6.0 innings in his Wild Card start versus the Red Sox. 
• Tampa Bay ranked 29th in xwOBA (.292) over the final month of the regular season.

Lock in your Rays vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks for ALDS Game 3 tonight

Rays vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for ALDS Game 3 – Wednesday, Oct. 7

Here are the top Rays vs. Yankees picks to target on PrizePicks on Wednesday, October 7. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Max Fried and Nick Martinez.

Yankees SP Max Fried vs. Rays — 27.5 Fantasy Score

• Over his final 10 regular-season starts, Fried posted a 2.35 xERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, 28.6% hard-hit rate, and 3.2% barrel rate. 
• The left-hander scored 43 fantasy points in his first postseason start. He’s scored 28+ fantasy points in three of his last four outings.
• Fried threw 98 pitches in his AL Wild Card start. He could have a long leash again if he’s performing well.
• The Yankees let SP Cam Schlittler go 117 pitches when he pitched 6.1 shutout innings in Game 1 against the Red Sox.  
• Tampa Bay projects to roll with a more righty-heavy lineup to platoon against the lefty. That might not faze Fried, who has a 2.49 xERA, 1.8% barrel rate, and 24.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed batters this year.
• The Rays’ bats ranked 26th in wRC+ (90) against left-handers during the regular season.
• Find PrizePicks MLB fantasy score details here.

Add Max Fried + Yankees to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Rays SP Nick Martinez vs. Yankees: 16.5 Fantasy Score

• Martinez struggled in his final regular-season start versus the Philadelphia Phillies. However, prior to that, he scored 32, 32, 24, and 37 fantasy points. The 37-point outing came against the Yankees.
• The right-hander has gone under 5.0 innings in just four of his 21 starts this year. He's gone 6.0 or more innings 18 times.
• He is projecfted to 3 Ks and around 12 pitcher outs (or 4.0 IP) on PrizePicks today
• Martinez earned a quality start in just over half his outings this season (16).
• The right-hander rarely issues free passes behind a 3.6% walk rate (100th percentile).
• The Yankees have deployed a predominantly left-handed lineup against righties in the playoffs. Martinez has posted a better xERA (3.70) against lefties than against righties (4.37) this year.
• With a fresh bullpen, it's possible Martinez has a quicker hook than usual, but he could add a few strikeouts against a Yankees team that has a 23.4% K rate this postseason.

Pick Nick Martinez + Rays to win on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Rays vs. Yankees Game 3 Picks on PrizePicks

With the Tampa Bay Rays carrying a commanding 2-0 lead in the ALDS, the New York Yankees need a win to keep their season alive tonight at Yankee Stadiium. Can New York extend their season at least one more game with Max Fried on the mound? 

Don’t wait until the first pitch of ALDS Game 3 tonight — make your Rays vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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