Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, July 23

First pitch for the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays game is set for 3:07 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 23, with the Blue Jays entering as small home favorites and returning a 1.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

Today’s game is the final outing of a four-game series between these division rivals. The Rays have dominated the fixture this season, winning the previous three games and eight of the nine contests these two teams have played this season. Can the Blue Jays show some resolve and avoid the sweep at home?

Below, we'll break down our Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 23

The Rays just continue to roll. Despite being ranked 23rd in MLB in active payroll, Tampa has done this season what it's been known to do: exceed expectations. 

Tampa Bay sits at an impressive 59-42, good for the best record in the AL East and the third-best record in baseball. Despite this, the Rays are just 2.5 games clear of the New York Yankees for the division lead, so it is imperative that they continue to play quality baseball the rest of the way.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are a team in disarray and are trending towards being sellers at this year's trade deadline — a shocking revelation considering this team was leading a World Series Game 7 just nine months ago.

Toronto sits at 46-56, 13.5 games behind the Rays, and owns a -63 run differential, also last in the division. The primary reason for this disappointing season has been a once-reliable offense now being dead last in runs scored.

Perhaps nothing can sum up their struggles better than this stat: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn't hit a regular-season home run in Rogers Centre since late last season.

Rays vs. Blue Jays Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 23

The Blue Jays enter Thursday’s game as small home favorites against the Rays, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Rays vs. Blue Jays game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (2.77x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.88x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Rays 1.88x | Blue Jays 1.85x

Play the Rays vs. Blue Jays spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction on Winner – 7/23/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction on the winner for Thursday, July 23.

Lock in your Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Rays are a monster 60-41-0 (59.4%) against the spread (ATS), tied for the best covering record in baseball.
• The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are just 45-57-0 (44.1%) ATS, fifth-worst in the league.
• Over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay has a wRC+ almost double that of the Blue Jays (127 vs. 64).
• Rays SP Ian Seymour owns a 4.79 ERA but could be due for some positive regression, as indicated by his 3.68 xERA.
• Blue Jays SP Shane Bieber owns an already bad 5.70 ERA and seems to be in for even worse days given his absurd 8.56 xERA.
• Toronto’s one saving grace all season has been its bullpen leading the league in xFIP (3.83). However, over the last two weeks, that xFIP is just barely ahead of Tampa Bay's (3.84 vs. 3.98). 

Rays vs. Blue Jays Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/23/26

Here are the top Rays vs. Blue Jays picks to target on Thursday, July 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ian Seymour and Shane Bieber.

Rays P Ian Seymour vs. Blue Jays: 4.5 Strikeouts

• Seymour has displayed tremendous strikeout stuff but is running into arguably the worst possible matchup for strikeouts.
• Despite the Blue Jays' inability to generate offense, they do limit the strikeouts with the very best. In the last two weeks, they have the lowest K% in baseball at just 17.4%.
• Seymour has gone above this projection in only one of his last three starts.
• Rays manager Kevin Cash has a tendency to have a quick hook for his starters; this can be seen in Seymour’s last two starts, where he was pulled at just 61 and 78 pitches.
• The Rays have gotten great length from their starters this series, leaving everybody in their bullpen available to pitch today, adding to the risk that Seymour could be pulled if he struggles.

Add Ian Seymour to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Blue Jays P Shane Bieber vs. Rays: 4 Strikeouts

• Bieber runs into the same conundrum as Seymour, except he hasn't been a prolific strikeout pitcher with just a 7.23 K/9, the lowest of his career.
• The Rays are the worst season-long matchup for strikeouts, owning a K-rate of just 18.9%, the lowest in MLB.
• Bieber has surpassed 4 strikeouts just once in his five starts.
• With Bieber coming back off a long injury and perhaps being dangled as a trade deadline piece, there is a chance the Blue Jays are careful with his pitching load going forward.
• The current Rays hitters have faced Bieber 29 times and struck out just 6 times, good for just a 20.6% strikeout rate. They also faced a version of Bieber that was a well-above-average strikeout pitcher, not the same player they're stepping into the box against today.

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The Rays have rolled through the Blue Jays this season, and today’s matchup seems like it could be more of the same. Can Toronto show some fight and avoid the four-game sweep in front of their home crowd?

Don’t wait until lock — make your Rays vs. Blue Jays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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