Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, July 22

The first pitch of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-49) and the New York Yankees (56-44) is set for 1:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 22, with the Yankees favored and returning a 1.56x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

The Yankees grabbed an 8-5 win, which was highlighted by 2B Jazz Chisholm’s 2-home run performance. With Tuesday’s game being postponed due to inclement weather, the Yanks and Pirates will play a doubleheader on Wednesday.

Below, we'll break down our game one Pirates vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Pirates vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 22

The Pirates are starting Mitch Keller (4.60 xFIP in 103.1 IP, 19 starts). It is puzzling why the Pirates gave Keller a 5-year, $77 million extension in 2024 given how he performed leading up to it. The former second-round pick has never lived up to expectations, owning a 4.71 ERA and 4.2 WAR in his first five seasons. 

He hasn't been much better since that extension, and this season is more of the same. His .289 xBA allowed is a career-worst, and his 5.38 xERA is the second-worst. 

The Brewers have started to pull away in the National League Central, as they hold a 6-game lead over the second-place Cubs, with the Pirates a staggering 11 games back. However, Pittsburgh is in the thick of the NL Wild Card race and has moved into a tie with the Marlins for the final spot. 

Pittsburgh was a seller at the deadline in past years, but it could finally look to improve the roster as a contender. The Pirates have an excellent offense and rotation, but they have one of the worst bullpens in the league, as their 4.28 ERA ranks 21st. The Pirates may look to acquire relievers with the trade deadline approaching.

The Yankees will counter with SP Gerrit Cole (3.98 xFIP in 55 IP, 10 starts). This is a revenge game for Cole, as he faces the team that drafted him first overall in 2011 and had him for five seasons.

This season, Cole has had some hitches after returning from Tommy John surgery, an injury that forced him to miss the 2025 campaign. If he finished 2026 with his current 3.93 ERA, it'd be his worst since 2017, his last season with the Pirates. 

His inconsistency likely has to do with regression in the movement of some of his breaking pitches. In 2024, his slider had a 33.7-inch vertical drop; this year, it’s only 31.1. The curveball had a 55.4-inch vertical drop in 2024, and it’s 54.0 now. As New York approaches the playoffs, perhaps Cole can get back to form.

The postseason isn't a certainty given New York's recent performance, though. On June 24, the Yankees’ 48-31 record was the best in the AL, and they had a 3-game lead in the AL East. Since then, they're 8-13 and are 1.5 games out of first in the division. The good news is they're holding onto the top Wild Card spot by 3.5 games.

Injuries have played a large part in their recent struggles. The Yankees get SP Max Fried back for the other game of the doubleheader. Unfortunately, they might be without their two big sluggers for much longer.

RF Aaron Judge was recently moved to the 60-day IL as he recovers from a fractured rib, and DH Giancarlo Stanton's strained calf might be worse than initially perceived, as Yankees insider Bryan Hoch says he “isn’t close to returning.”

Pirates vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 22

The Yankees enter Wednesday’s game as home favorites against the Pirates, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Pirates vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (2.08x payout)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Pirates 2.38x | Yankees 1.56x

Play the Pirates vs. Yankees spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction on Over/Under – 7/22/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Pirates vs. Yankees prediction on the run total for Wednesday, July 22.

Lock in your Pirates vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Keller is allowing a 42.6% hard-hit rate that only ranks in the 24th percentile. The Yankees crush the ball, as their 41.6% hard-hit rate ranks third in baseball.
• Cole’s hard-hit rate ceded isn’t much better at 41.8%, which is in the 29th percentile. The Pirates also have some pop to their bats, with their 40.8% hard-hit clip being seventh in MLB. 
• Keller has allowed 5+ earned runs in three straight road starts.
• Cole’s 1.5 HR/9 is the second-highest of his career. Pittsburgh can send it into the stands, as their 13.9% home run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB) is fourth in the league.
• The Yankees' 53.3% over rate at home is the eighth-highest in the sport.

Pirates vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/22/26

Here are the top Pirates vs. Yankees picks to target on Wednesday, July 22. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ben Rice and Esmerlyn Valdez.

Yankees 1B Ben Rice vs. Pirates: 1.5 Total Bases

• Rice has been ripping it up in July, as his .501 wOBA is fourth and his 61.9% hard-hit rate is second. He also has a hit in 2 career at-bats against Keller.
• Keller struggles against left-handed batters, allowing a .363 wOBA compared to .267 against right-handed batters. He also yields a 13.6% HR/FB against lefties compared to 5.4% versus righties. This could benefit the lefty Rice, who ranks fourth in the league with 29 home runs.
• Rice is very disciplined at the plate, with his 24.8 chase rate ranking in the 79th percentile. Keller has a below-average chase rate of 29.7% (46th percentile).

Add Ben Rice to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Pirates RF Esmerlyn Valdez vs. Yankees: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• The Pirates' ninth-best prospect had a stellar first game of this series with a home run, 2 RBI, and a walk.
• Valdez is one of the hottest hitters over the last few weeks; since June 28, he ranks first in WAR (1.6) and barrel rate (27.9%) while being second in wOBA (.522).
• Cole is allowing a 9.7% barrel rate that ranks in the 20th percentile.
• Cole's aforementioned 41.8% hard-hit rate could be a red flag for him but a green light for Valdez, whose 55.6% mark would be third in the sport if he had enough ABs to qualify.

Add Esmerlyn Valdez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Pirates vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

Following a Yankees victory on Monday and some inclement weather on Tuesday, it comes down to a Wednesday doubleheader to determine the winner of this series. Can Cole get a win against the team that he started with, or will someone like Valdez fuel Pittsburgh's lineup to victory? 

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Pirates vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.