The Pittsburgh Pirates (7-5) and Chicago Cubs (6-6) are set to begin a three-game series on Friday, April 10, at 2:20 p.m. ET, with the Cubs returning a 1.63x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they secure a victory.
As NL Central rivals, Pittsburgh and Chicago played four series and 13 games in 2025, and it was the Cubs who won all four series with a 10-3 record.
Below, we'll break down our Pirates vs. Cubs prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, April 10
For the opening game of the series, Pirates SP Carmen Mlodzinski (1.96 xFIP across 2 starts and 9.0 IP in 2026) and Cubs SP Shota Imanaga (3.48 xFIP across 2 starts and 10.0 IP) will square off on the bump.
Although it’s still early, Mlodzinski is sitting in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate (31.7%), 67th percentile in walk rate (7.3%), and 77th percentile in barrel rate (0.0%) to begin the 2026 MLB season, per Baseball Savant.
The Pirates’ bats have also been performing well in the early going, earning the ninth-best wRC+ (106), seventh-best wOBA (.330), and 10th-lowest strikeout rate (21.5%), via FanGraphs.
Despite Imanaga holding a 4.50 ERA through 2 starts, his 3.08 xERA (68th percentile) suggests he’s gotten a bit unlucky to start the new campaign.
The Cubs alternated wins and losses over their first nine outings before going 2-1 over their last three, most recently defeating the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-game series.
Pirates vs. Cubs Spread, Over/Under – Friday, April 10
The Cubs enter Friday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Pirates vs. Cubs game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Cubs -1.5 (2.38x payout)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (1.72x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Pirates 2.12x | Cubs 1.63x
Play the Pirates vs. Cubs spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction on Over/Under – 4/10/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Pirates vs. Cubs prediction on the run total for Friday, April 10.
Lock in your Pirates vs. Cubs prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- Temperatures will be in the 40s with winds blowing in at Wrigley Field, which is an extremely wind-receptive stadium.
- According to FanGraphs, Chicago’s bats have only been around league average, logging just the 16th-best wRC+ (98), 14th-best wOBA (.313), and 15th-highest strikeout rate (22.6%) across their first 12 contests.
- Even though it’s a different season, it’s worth noting that the Pirates had the second-worst wRC+ (76), second-worst wOBA (.281), and second-highest strikeout rate (25.8%) against left-handed pitching a year ago.
- When playing as home favorites in 2025, the Cubs were only 32-37-6 to the over. They’ve gone 3-3 to the over in the same split to begin 2026.
- On the other hand, the Pirates were 22-41-4 to the over as road underdogs last season. To begin this year, they’ve gone 0-3 in the same sample.
- Once both starters exit, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has the eighth-best xFIP (3.43), while Chicago’s bullpen tends to keep the ball out of the air with a 45.9% ground ball rate.
Pirates vs. Cubs Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/10/26
Here are the top Pirates vs. Cubs picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, April 10. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Marcell Ozuna and Nico Hoerner.
Pirates DH Marcell Ozuna vs. Cubs Projection: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- In his first eight starts in 2026, Marcell Ozuna has totaled only 2 hits and 1 run scored.
- Furthermore, Ozuna is posting a dismal -23 wRC+, .133 wOBA, .087 BABIP across his first 35 PAs this season.
- Just last season, Imanaga had a 4.42 xFIP, .209 BABIP, and 33.2% groundball rate at home, compared to a 4.60 xFIP, .229 BABIP, and 25.4% groundball rate on the road.
- Ozuna had worse metrics against lefties in 2025, tallying a 111 wRC+, .330 wOBA, and .128 ISO in that split.
- Against righties, he had a 115 wRC+, .335 wOBA, and .180 ISO.
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Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner vs. Pirates Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Despite runs potentially coming at a premium given the weather conditions, Nico Hoerner has been one of the bright spots in Chicago’s lineup so far.
- Over his first 53 PAs in 2026, Hoerner boasts a 183 wRC+, .444 wOBA, and .214 ISO.
- Plus, Hoerner has been swinging a hot bat in recent outings, with at least 1 hit in four straight contests and at least 2 RBIs in three straight.
- Mlodzinski had slightly worse splits vs. right-handed batters last year, permitting a .347 BABIP and 1.43 WHIP. When facing left-handed batters, he had a .299 BABIP and 1.18 WHIP.
Add Nico Hoerner to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Pirates vs. Cubs Picks on PrizePicks
The weather at Wrigley Field on Friday could lead to fewer runs on the scoreboard for the Pirates vs. Cubs. Which NL Central team takes home the win in the first meeting of the 2026 campaign?
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