Phillies vs. Tigers Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, July 12

The first pitch of the Philadelphia Phillies (53-43) vs. Detroit Tigers (44-51) is set for 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 12, with the Tigers returning a 1.75x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

After the Tigers got the first win on Friday, scoring the final 8 runs in a 10-2 win, the Phillies responded on Saturday with a 4-2 victory. Now we get a marquee pitching matchup featuring Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal in the series’ rubber match.

Below, we'll break down our Phillies vs. Tigers prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Phillies vs. Tigers prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game!

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Phillies vs. Tigers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, July 12

The Phillies will start their ace Zack Wheeler (2.90 xFIP in 87 IP, 14 starts). If Brewers SP Jacob Misorowski wasn’t so dominant this season, we could be talking about Wheeler as a National League Cy Young candidate. When he’s on the mound, he gives the Phillies an excellent chance to win, posting quality starts in 11 of 14 outings — including a sub-3.00 xERA in eight of those outings.

After a 9-19 start with manager Rob Thompson, they fired him and promoted bench coach Don Mattingly to interim manager. He has allowed this team to reach its full potential, as they are 45-23 since he’s taken over. Philadelphia has surged back in playoff contention, going from 9.5 games back in the National League East on June 7 to two games from first place.

The Tigers will respond with their ace Tarik Skubal (2.47 xFIP in 70.2 IP, 12 starts). The reigning two-time American League Cy Young Award winner is having an un-Skubal-like season. By normal standards, a 3.19 xERA is fantastic, but when it has been below 3.00 in the previous three seasons, Skubal has not played up to his abilities. 

It might be a lingering effect of the elbow injury he had earlier in the year, forcing him to miss a few weeks. His first three starts since returning from injury did not go well, allowing 9 earned runs and 6 home runs over 16 innings. However, he has settled down over his last two starts, allowing 2 earned runs over 11 innings.

Big decisions could be ahead before the trade deadline. Skubal is a free agent at the end of the season, so do the Tigers keep him and hope to re-sign Skubal, or does Detroit trade him for a potential big return and begin a rebuild? 

The Tigers are under .500, but they are still in playoff contention, being only 4.5 games behind first place in the American League Central and 2.5 back from the final Wild Card spot. 

If they want Skubal in their future plans, they may need to be buyers at the trade deadline after Skubal stated, “Play better baseball or else.” 

Phillies vs. Tigers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, July 12

The Tigers enter Sunday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.75x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Phillies vs. Tigers game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Tigers -1.5 (2.63x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (2.17x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Phillies 2x | Tigers 1.75x

Make your Phillies vs. Tigers prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Phillies vs. Tigers Prediction on Spread – 7/12/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Phillies vs. Tigers prediction on the runline for Sunday, July 12.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Phillies have a 12-2 record in Wheeler’s starts this season.
• Skubal’s recent struggles with allowing home runs could be a factor, as the Phillies are fourth this season with a 13.8% home run-to-fly-ball ratio.
• Wheeler is one of the best strikeout pitchers with a 29.4% strikeout rate that ranks in the 92nd percentile. The Tigers are averaging 8.69 strikeouts per game, ranking 21st in the league.
• Skubal is allowing a 38.0% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 59th percentile. Now he has to face one of the top power lineups in baseball, with Philadelphia having a 41.1% hard-hit rate that ranks fifth.
• The Phillies perform well against below-average teams, with a 29-15 record against opponents under .500, the fourth-best in MLB.

Lock in your Phillies vs. Tigers prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Phillies vs. Tigers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 7/12/26

Here are the top Phillies vs. Tigers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, July 12. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Bryce Harper and Riley Greene.

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper vs. Tigers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Harper has success against Skubal, going 3 for 6 with a double.
• He has a solid barrel rate of 11.6% that ranks in the 76th percentile. That is an advantage over Skubal's 7.8% barrel rate allowed, which ranks only in the 47th percentile.
• Skubal throws the sinker on 50% of his pitches to left-handed hitters. The lefty Harper does well against sinkers with a .348 wOBA. He also has only a 14.8% whiff rate and a 9.3% strikeout rate, the lowest among all pitch types he’s faced this season.
• Skubal noticeably struggles against left-handed batters with a .332 wOBA and a 37.5% home run-to-flyball ratio (HR/FB) allowed compared to a .261 wOBA and 14.9% HR/FB against righties.

Add Bryce Harper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Tigers LF Riley Greene vs. Phillies: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Greene is having his best season with a 50.0% hard-hit rate, .372 wOBA, and 18.6-degree launch angle, all currently sitting as career highs.
• The Tigers' outfielder is red-hot with his .554 wOBA since July 4, which ranks fourth in the league. Plus, his .754 xSLG ranks fifth.
• Greene’s 50.0% hard-hit rate sits in the 89th percentile, which is an advantage over Wheeler’s 36.2% (65th percentile).
• Wheeler is allowing 23.0% of batted balls in the air to go to the opposite field. This plays into Greene’s strength, as his 22.0% of batted balls to the opposite field is his second-highest rate.

Add Riley Greene to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Phillies vs. Tigers Picks on PrizePicks

As the first half of the season wraps up and MLB heads into the All-Star break, we get an exciting matchup in the Motor City. Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler, two of the game's best pitchers, will battle on the mound on Sunday afternoon.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Phillies vs. Tigers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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