Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, MLB Picks for Tuesday, May 26

The Philadelphia Phillies (27-27) and San Diego Padres (31-22) will play the second game of a three-game series on Tuesday, May 26 at 9:40 p.m. ET. Philadelphia secured a 3-0 victory over San Diego on Monday, with DH Kyle Schwarber hitting his league-leading 21st homer.

Ahead of Tuesday’s clash, the Padres are home favorites with a 1.75x payout if they defeat the Phillies, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Below, we'll break down our Phillies vs. Padres prediction and picks for Tuesday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Phillies vs. Padres prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game.

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Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, May 26

For the second game of the series, it will be the Phillies’ Aaron Nola (3.69 xFIP across 10 starts and 50.2 IP in 2026) and the Padres’ Randy Vasquez (4.17 xFIP across 10 starts and 54.2 IP) on the bump.

Despite Nola producing a 6.04 ERA so far, he does have a 4.78 xERA, suggesting he hasn’t been as bad as the metrics suggest. However, it’s still not great that Nola is in the 26th percentile in xERA and 19th percentile in xBA (.271), via Baseball Savant. 

Aside from Schwarber and 1B Bryce Harper, the Phillies’ bats have been inconsistent, generating the eighth-worst wRC+ (90), 11th-worst wOBA (.302), and seventh-highest strikeout rate (23.9%) since the start of May, per FanGraphs.

After winning the National League East in each of the last two seasons, the Phillies currently return a 4.54x payout if they win the division, via PrizePicks Team Picks. The Atlanta Braves (36-18) possess a 1.21x payout to win the NL East.

There’s a massive discrepancy between Vasquez’s ERA (2.96) and xERA (5.45), and he’s also in just the 13th percentile in xBA (.279). 

The Padres’ lineup has been even worse than the Phillies since the start of May, posting the fourth-worst wRC+ (76), second-worst wOBA (.273), and fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.6%).

That being said, San Diego has a formidable record right now, and they carry a 1.53x payout to make the playoffs, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Phillies vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, May 26

The Padres enter Tuesday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.75x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Phillies vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: San Diego Padres -1.5 (2.56x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Phillies 2x | Padres 1.75x

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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Phillies vs. Padres Prediction on Over/Under – 5/26/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Phillies vs. Padres prediction on the total runs for Tuesday, May 26.

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• Although both of these lineups have struggled, Nola and Vasquez are both susceptible to giving up plenty of runs on the mound.
• Along with giving up 3 ER or more in nine of his 10 starts, Nola ranks in the 35th percentile in barrel rate (9.0%), 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate (41.9%), and 37th percentile in ground ball rate (40.6%).
• Nola is also recording a 4.05 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and 1.74 HR/9 on the road.
• As for Vasquez, he’s coughed up 3 ER or more in three of his last five starts, and he’s in the eighth percentile in barrel rate (12.5%), 17th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.0%), and 32nd percentile in ground ball rate (39.4%).
• The Phillies’ best hitters are left-handed, and the winds blowing from left to right field at Petco Park on Tuesday could aid fly balls from those hitters.
• Over the last 14 days, Philly’s bullpen has the fifth-worst BABIP (.307) and the third-worst HR/9 (1.51).

Phillies vs. Padres Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/26/26

Here are the top Phillies vs. Padres picks to target on PrizePicks for Tuesday, May 26. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Bryce Harper and Gavin Sheets

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper vs. Padres: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• When facing right-handed pitching, Harper owns a stellar 175 wRC+, .427 wOBA, and .295 ISO.
• Harper also has better splits on the road to begin the year, tallying a 157 wRC+, .399 wOBA, and .270 ISO. At home, he has a 130 wRC+, .363 wOBA, and .231 ISO.
• Over his last 10 games, Harper has totaled 2 multi-hit outings, 2 HRs, 8 RBI, 1 double, and 6 runs.
• Vasquez is registering a 4.11 xFIP, .322 BABIP, and 1.35 WHIP against lefties compared to a 4.24 xFIP, .231 BABIP, and 1.00 WHIP to righties.

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Padres 1B Gavin Sheets vs. Phillies: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Nola is struggling mightily against lefties, permitting a 4.64 xFIP, 1.81 WHIP, and 1.67 HR/9 in that split.
• Sheets is logging a 156 wRC+, .392 wOBA, and .289 ISO against right-handers in 2026.
• Since the start of May, Sheets boasts a strong 174 wRC+, .418 wOBA, and .267 ISO.
• Across his last 10 games, Sheets has accrued 2 multi-hit performances, 3 HRs, 7 RBI, 1 double, and 5 runs.

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The Phillies and Padres both have sputtered at the plate this season, but they could benefit from facing shaky starting pitchers on Tuesday. Could we get a decent amount of runs with Nola and Vasquez squaring off on the mound?

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Phillies vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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