Phillies vs. Mariners Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, August 24

First pitch for the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners game is set for 9:40 p.m. ET on Monday, August 24, with the Phillies entering as small road favorites and returning a 1.78x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

Today’s outing is game one of the first and only three-game series between these two teams. The Phillies come into this one on a nine-game winning streak, while the Mariners are also playing better baseball, going 6-4 over their last 10. Tonight, they both send their aces to the mound in what should be a fantastic game. Who will win the all-important first game of the set?

Below, we'll break down our Phillies vs. Mariners prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your picks for Phillies vs. Mariners on PrizePicks now.

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Phillies vs. Mariners, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 24

The Phillies are peaking at just the right time, now sitting 73-58, and have worked their way to just three games back of the Atlanta Braves for the lead in the NL East.

Their win streak has been backed by an emerging offense that is striking out only 15.2% of the time over the last two weeks. Additionally, their bullpen has been closing out games with regularity, posting the best xFIP (3.26) in baseball in the same span.

The Phillies are sending SP Zack Wheeler (2.95 xFIP) to the mound tonight. Wheeler has been truly fantastic overall, but the club will need him to be better than he's been in recent starts. He's given up multiple runs in three straight outings, which marks the first time all season it's happened for him.

The Mariners, meanwhile, are at 62-69 overall and, like the Phillies, have clawed their way to just three games out of the lead in their respective division.

They will have their ace SP Logan Gilbert (3.54 xFIP) toe the rubber tonight. Gilbert is in the midst of yet another awesome season, but his 9.40 K/9 is his lowest rate in the last three years, while his 3.54 xFIP is the highest. He'll have to be at his very best to cool down this Phillies offense that has been smoking hot.

Phillies vs. Mariners Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 24

The Phillies enter Monday’s game as small road favorites against the Mariners, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Phillies vs. Mariners game on PrizePicks.

Play the Phillies vs. Mariners spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Phillies vs. Mariners Prediction on Winner – 8/24/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Phillies vs. Mariners prediction on the winner for Monday, August 24.

Lock in your Phillies vs. Mariners prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• This may be a closely contested contest between two teams desperate to keep their winning ways going, but it is the Phillies who own the advantages in offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching.
• The Phillies' offense is ranked fifth in baseball in wRC+ (122) over the last two weeks. The Mariners are 13th in that span with a wRC+ of 104.
• Wheeler owns an xFIP that is 0.59 points better than Logan Gilbert’s. 
• Additionally, his .262 BABIP is a few points ahead of Gilbert’s .253 mark, indicating that if any pitcher is due for some negative regression, it could be him.
• Philly not only owns the best bullpen in terms of xFIP (3.26) in the last 14 days but also over the course of the entire season (3.52).
• Seattle has a solid bullpen, ranking seventh in xFIP for the season (3.90). Unlike the Phillies, however, the Mariners' pen has been cold recently, posting a 4.34 xFIP over the last two weeks (20th).

Phillies vs. Mariners Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 8/24/26

Here are the top Phillies vs. Mariners picks to target on Monday, August 24. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Zack Wheeler and Logan Gilbert.

Phillies P Zack Wheeler vs. Mariners: 7 Strikeouts

• I mentioned above that Wheeler hasn’t been his usual dominant self recently, but the good news is all his underlying metrics (velocity, spin rate, swinging strike rate, etc.) remain as elite as ever.
• Wheeler has a dominant 10.77 K/9, backed by an elite 13.5% SwStr%, and catches a fantastic matchup for strikeouts tonight.
• The Mariners have struck out 24.2% of the time over the last two weeks, sixth most in the majors.
• Wheeler has been even better on the road, where he owns a 6.50 K/BB ratio compared to a 3.14 K/BB mark at home.
• Seattle has also historically struggled mightily against the Phillies righty. Their lineup has faced Wheeler in 58 combined plate appearances and has a slash line of .172/.226/.207 with 19 strikeouts.

Add Zack Wheeler to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mariners P Logan Gilbert vs. Phillies: 1.5 Walks Allowed

• Gilbert is typically one of the league's best at limiting walks, but a combination of his recent form and a tough matchup has me thinking he could walk a couple of Philly hitters tonight.
• His 2.22 BB/9 rate is the highest in his last four seasons, and his worst walk split is at home vs. LHB, where he is walking 3.02 BB/9. Philly Over the last two weeks, the Phillies have the second-highest walk rate in the majors at 10.7%.
• Gilbert has shown an increased lack of command in the second half of the season with a 3.22 BB/9 compared to his 1.89 BB/9 in the first half.
• He has walked multiple batters in three of his last five starts. In two of those outings, he issued 4 free passes.

Add Logan Gilbert to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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We’ve got a pitching duel of epic proportions in the Pacific Northwest tonight. Can Zack Wheeler get on track and propel Philadelphia to their 10th win in a row, or will Logan Gilbert and the Mariners continue to chip away at the division lead in the AL West with a big win in front of their home crowd?

Don’t wait until lock — make your Phillies vs. Mariners picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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