Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, MLB Picks for NL Wild Card Game 3 – Thursday, 10/1

First pitch for the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves NL Wild Card Game 3 is set for 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 1 at Truist Park in Atlanta.

The Phillies kept their season alive with a dramatic 4-3 victory over the Braves in 10 innings on Wednesday, setting up a winner-take-all clash between the NL East rivals.

Philadelphia trailed 3-1 entering the eighth inning before RF/1B Bryce Harper and DH Kyle Schwarber hit back-to-back homers to tie the game. 3B Alec Bohm then delivered the decisive solo shot in the 10th inning to force Thursday's elimination game.

The Braves enter tonight’s matchup as ever-so-slight home favorites on PrizePicks, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright.

Below, we'll break down our Phillies vs. Braves prediction and picks for Thursday's MLB Playoff game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Phillies vs. Braves picks on PrizePicks now.

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Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for NL Wild Card Game 3 – Thursday, October 1

SP Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia in Game 3 after Cristopher Sánchez delivered 6.2 innings in Wednesday's game.

Nola finished the regular season with 177 strikeouts over 175.1 innings, though he may have been due for better results than his raw numbers indicated in many regards. His 9.1 K/9 remained above average, but he did allow 37 home runs. That'll have to change if he wants to help the team advance.

The veteran right-hander has already faced Atlanta twice this month. Nola allowed 3 runs across 13.1 combined innings in those two starts while recording 8 strikeouts.

Atlanta's pitching plan is less conventional. The Braves are expected to open with LHP Ray Kerr (4.12 xFIP) before turning the ball over to RHP Grant Holmes (4.55 xFIP) for a few innings, then use high-leverage bullpen arms.

Both teams are playing with their entire seasons on the line Thursday night, so expect both managers to have short leashes if their starting pitching plans begin to unravel.

Phillies vs. Braves Winner Payout, Over/Under for NL Wild Card – Thursday, October 1

The Braves enter Thursday’s matchup as home favorites against the Phillies, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Phillies vs. Braves game on PrizePicks.

Play the Phillies vs. Braves spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction on Winner for NL Wild Card – 10/1/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Phillies vs. Braves prediction on the winner for Thursday's Wild Card Game 3 matchup.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• For the season, the Phillies have the third-best bullpen in the league (3.88 xFIP). The Braves rank 12th with an xFIP of 4.09.
• Recently, the Phillies' pen has also outperformed the Braves. Over the last two weeks, Philadelphia has a bullpen xFIP of 3.84 (12th), which trumps Atlanta's 4.07 mark that sits 17th.
• Nola admittedly doesn’t have great numbers against Atlanta, but he pitched well this year and may be in for positive regression, especially considering his xFIP (3.86) is almost a full run below his ERA (4.67).
• Holmes, on the other hand, has an xERA (5.04) that is over a run and a half above his ERA (3.44).
• The Phillies picked up an unquantifiable amount of momentum with their come-from-behind victory last night. I like them to continue that on the backs of superior pitching.
• Since the start of September, Philadelphia holds notable advantages in walk (9.7% to 7.3%) and strikeout (19.3% to 21.5%) rates, also ranking 14th in xwOBA (.310) compared to Atlanta at 19th (.306).

Lock in your Phillies vs. Braves prediction on PrizePicks now.

Phillies vs. Braves Picks, Player Stats for NL Wild Card Game 3 on PrizePicks: 10/1/26

Here are the top Phillies vs. Braves picks to target in Thursday's NL Wild Card Game 3. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks include Aaron Nola and Ronald Acuña Jr.

Phillies P Aaron Nola vs. Braves: 3.5 Strikeouts

• Nola still has great strikeout stuff, but he's facing the worst possible matchup in a spot where he could get pulled early if he struggles. He also has just a 5.4 K/9 against the Braves in his last two starts.
• Philadelphia has multiple postseason-caliber arms behind him in an all-hands-on-deck approach, so Nola doesn't necessarily need to work deep into the game if his pitch count climbs.
• This Braves lineup has an unbelievable amount of experience against Nola. Collectively, it has 120 hits off him and an insane 23 home runs. This isn't a spot where manager Don Mattingly should necessarily want Atlanta getting several looks at his hurler.

Add Aaron Nola + Phillies to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Braves OF Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Phillies: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Acuña averaged 1.9 hits + runs + RBI at Truist Park during the regular season. He also has a .265 batting average in Atlanta this year compared to a .245 mark away from home.
• His matchup history against Nola is particularly encouraging. Acuña has hit .339 with a 1.073 OPS, 4 home runs, 8 doubles, and 10 RBIs in 67 career plate appearances against the Philadelphia right-hander.
• Acuña led off Game 2 and immediately walked before stealing second and third, then scoring on a 1B Matt Olson single. He may have plenty of opportunities to impact the game on Thursday.
• After swiping just 21 bags during the regular season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Acuña return to his old ways and create scoring opportunities in a must-win battle.

Add Ronald Acuña Jr. + Braves to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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The Phillies and Braves are officially down to one game with the NLDS on the line Thursday night. Will Nola deliver enough length to put Philadelphia in position to advance, or can Acuña and the Braves' offense finally break through in a winner-take-all tilt at Truist Park?

Don't wait until lock — make your Phillies vs. Braves picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right.

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