Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi Prediction, UFC 331 Pick to Win

Two featherweight MMA legends are set to square off Saturday as a featured bout of the UFC 331 main card in Los Angeles: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi.

Dooho Choi, also known as the “Korean Superboy”, will look to extend both his winning and finishing streak to four fights as he faces credentialed former Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull.

This featured bout of UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 is expected to start around 10:15 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

Let's get into our Pitbull vs. Choi prediction and UFC picks for PrizePicks, including the model's lean on who will win this fight at UFC 331.

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Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi Prediction, Preview for UFC 331 Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Patricio Pitbull: 3.12x

• By KO/TKO: 6.66x
• By Submission: 14.28x
• By Decision: 6.25x

Dooho Choi: 1.31x

• By KO/TKO: 2.43x
• By Submission: 11.11x
• By Decision: 3.22x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x, which is more likely than a 4x, and so on.

If I told someone in 2016 that, due to some sort of cross-promotional setup, Dooho Choi and Patricio Pitbull were going to square off, it’d be one of the fights of the year.

It was in December of that year that Choi had a barnburner with Cub Swanson, which has already earned him a spot in the UFC Hall of Fame for an individual fight:

The “Korean Superboy” is an all-action brawler on the surface, landing 5.00 significant strikes per minute in an octagon sample over 83 minutes that dates back to 2015. But beneath the volume lurks quality striking accuracy (55%) and defense (57%), and he’s never been submitted in 10 promotional appearances.

Choi didn’t appear in the UFC between 2020 and 2022 due to mandatory military service in South Korea, which might have been the prime of his career.

However, after scoring a draw with Kyle Nelson in his first fight back, he’s now on a knockout streak of three accomplished divisional veterans: Bill Algeo, Nate Landwehr, and Daniel “Willycat” Santos.

That is not a list that Patricio Pitbull (formerly Patricio Friere) wants to join. The 39-year-old’s UFC career really hasn’t done him any sort of justice for a man who spent over a decade considered the best 145er outside of the UFC.

He was 32-4 as a pro to begin his career with Bellator championship wins over Michael Chandler, A.J. McKee, and Daniel Straus. He migrated up to lightweight and won there, too. Pitbull didn’t make the plunge into the UFC until Bellator had quite literally gone extinct in 2024.

To say it’s been rocky would be an understatement. He’s got a 1-2 record and -1.84 striking success rate (SSR), but that does come with the context of being inside the rankings this whole time at 38 or older.

Pitbull steps outside the top 15 to face Choi, who is no spring chicken at 35 years old. These legends might have one last banger in them.

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How Patricio Pitbull Wins vs. Dooho Choi at UFC 331

Pitbull’s lone UFC victory came against Dan Ige when he secured five takedowns. It seems he’ll have to make that happen again.

On paper, Dooho Choi’s 59% takedown defense is exploitable. He’s defended 12 of 19 takedowns since returning, but it is a path or an opening that also wasn’t really exploited by any of his opponents since Nelson, who forced a draw.

But, I also don’t want to forget that just five months ago, the Brazilian absorbed 100 significant strikes with a poor striking defense (45%) against Aaron Pico. He’s got to stay out of the way of mammoth power shots.

At the very least, threatening his takedown offense should make striking easier, and this is a guy with 24 pro finishes to his name if Choi makes a positional mistake.

How Dooho Choi Wins vs. Patricio Pitbull at UFC 331

Even on a winning streak, it has not been smooth sailing for “Korean Superboy”. Choi dropped a wild first round to Willycat Santos but survived until the Brazilian ran out of gas.

In this fight, he’s got to be the aggressor early. With a three-inch reach advantage and 1.20% knockdown rate, he’s an imposing opponent for an aging Pitbull with mounting attrition. He’s got real power that Pico, perhaps, didn’t have despite his boxing skills.

Of course, defending takedowns is also part of his game plan just as the offensive component is relevant to Pitbull. Algeo mounted 3:09 in control time against him. Nelson posted 5:34 in their 2023 bout. The last thing he wants is to get an opportunity like this and have it salted away in a boring fight.

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Pitbull vs. Choi Prediction for UFC 331 Main Card Fight

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Pitbull vs. Choi Model Results for UFC 331

This fight seems like a poster child for how far my model has come. In a prior version of it, I don’t believe Pitbull would be forecast at just 27.5% to win. His striking defense (55%) isn’t poor — he’s got obvious takedown upside, and he’s got a career of illustrious finishes.

But I’ve changed it for a reason. A wrestling-heavy approach for Pitbull, at 39 years old, is taxing, exhausting, and increasingly unrealistic. Dan Ige’s 55% takedown defense failed him against everyone, leading him to now fight at 135 pounds. Choi’s has been serviceable since returning.

Pitbull has just two career knockout losses, and one was an injury, but that’s why I have the model. It looks at historical trends with age, attrition, and a striking efficiency edge that clearly shows a speed gap. Every MMA fighter is durable until they're not.

From the opening bell, one of these fighters is in survive-and-stall mode. The other is hunting for a finish. Because of the former Bellator champ’s illustrious resume, I don’t know if that dynamic is getting enough credit from projections.

Pitbull vs. Choi Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Patricio Pitbull – 36.5 Significant Strikes

Especially in a matchup where I believe Pitbull needs to close the distance to win, it’s worth noting how difficult of a time he’s had landing significant strikes in the UFC.

He’s mustered just 2.77 per minute with poor accuracy (45%), and it’s not really an accident. At 5’6” with just a 67” reach, he’s given up size to Yair Rodriguez, Aaron Pico, and now Choi. Ige (5’7”) was an older exception who has lost five of his last six himself.

As noted, Choi’s striking defense (57%) is far better than you’d believe by his reputation. The South Korean has also landed 6 takedowns in his last three fights, and top time for him wouldn’t help Pitbull accumulate strikes, either.

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Make Your Pitbull vs. Choi UFC 331 Picks on PrizePicks

UFC 331 goes down this Saturday from the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Pitbull vs. Choi, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 36 states.

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.