UFC 331 Predictions — Van vs. Pantoja 2 & All Main Card Fights Tonight

Last December, we were robbed of Joshua Van’s inaugural title fight and a matchup with one of the division’s best of all-time, Alexandre Pantoja.

When Pantoja broke his arm seconds into the fight, we knew a rematch would eventually come. Just about nine months later, the weekend has arrived at UFC 331 in Los Angeles, with Van vs. Pantoja 2 in the main event.

The UFC 331 main card features five fights, with Van a slight favorite over Pantoja in the main event, according to PrizePicks payouts.

In the co-main event, a five-round lightweight title eliminator awaits. For the first time in 2026, Arman Tsarukyan returns to the octagon to square off with Brazilian striking savant Mauricio Ruffy.

The UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 main card starts Saturday evening at 9:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC 331 predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Van vs. Pantoja and the rest of the main card.

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UFC 331 Predictions for Van vs. Pantoja & Main Fight Card

Before we get into our UFC 331 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2’s main card is expected to start at 9:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja — Flyweight
• Co-Main Event: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy — Lightweight
• Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi — Featherweight
• Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf — Heavyweight
• Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski — Light Heavyweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC 331 main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja Prediction for UFC 331

Fight Winner Payouts: Joshua Van 1.66x | Alexandre Pantoja 2.12x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Van vs. Pantoja Model Results:

Immediately in the aftermath of Alexandre Pantoja’s injury against Joshua Van last December, we didn’t know where or when, but the two were always going to cross paths again.

Part of the reason why is that the former dominant flyweight champion, who defended this belt four times, has earned to fight for a title immediately upon being healthy. 

While I’ve always argued Pantoja was more average than elite at distance, per a +0.50 striking success rate (SSR), it really doesn’t matter, as one of the most elite jiu-jitsu threats from the back in the world, when he has also been dropped just once in 833 significant strikes absorbed over his career.

That’s why I was excited for the first bout, though. No UFC fighter has ever landed more total significant strikes (1,230) across their first 145 octagon minutes than Myanmar's Joshua Van. The 24-year-old’s rise to prominence has been historic.

In his first career title defense, “The Fearless” proved that he can thwart elite offensive grappling from Tatsuro Taira, who many compare stylistically to Pantoja. His 75% takedown defense is well-tested and solid. That’s the dynamic that has swung him from an underdog against Taira to a favorite against Pantoja.

Make no mistake; “The Cannibal” is a tougher test than Taira simply via decision-making and experience. It felt like the younger Japanese contender fell apart when Van figured out how to stuff his takedowns. But over the course of 25 minutes, it is more challenging to manage energy levels while wrestling. That’s the exact same problem Pantoja has to navigate against the anti-grappling of “The Fearless”.

Predict the Van vs. Pantoja Winner at UFC 331 on PrizePicks

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Van vs. Pantoja Pick for UFC 331

Joshua Van – 86.5 Significant Strikes

Van’s significant strike projection comes with the balancing act of weighing his historic volume against Pantoja’s ability to control rounds on his back.

That dynamic played out in earnest against Taira. When fresh, Taira limited Van to 28 significant strikes over the first two rounds. In just over 11 minutes to close the fight, the current champion erupted for 103 significant strikes. A “Less” can become a “More” extremely quickly if Pantoja isn’t able to secure dominant positions.

As the model indicates, this should correlate with the win outcome. Van’s 0.57% knockdown rate (KD%) isn’t high, so he likely wins a longer fight where he can keep his feet. Pantoja’s best path is threatening submissions — and early.

Make Your Van vs. Pantoja Pick for UFC 331 on PrizePicks

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction for UFC 331

Fight Winner Payouts: Arman Tsarukyan 1.29x | Mauricio Ruffy 3.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy Model Results:

It seems the UFC is trending toward a rematch of Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria for Gaethje’s first defense, so the fighter next in line likely comes from this five-round matchup.

It’s amazing that Arman Tsarukyan has appeared just twice since the start of 2024 when he’s stayed in the news constantly. The Armenian contender has become a staple of Real American Freestyle (RAF) wrestling contests that don’t violate his UFC contract, and he’s certainly stirred things up there:

“Batman” has kind of become a bad boy of this lightweight division in the shape of his middleweight friend and training partner, Khamzat Chimaev. That works when you’re winning, though, and an incorrect split decision result against Mateusz Gamrot is his only UFC loss since a 2019 debut against Islam Makhachev.

So, can a “Fightning Nerds” product solve this puzzle? Mauricio Ruffy is maybe one of the most hyped lightweight prospects ever with movement skills, unorthodox movement, and speed that mirror that of a certain “Notorious” one:

Ruffy, though, had to get to work. A 2025 setback to Benoit Saint Denis, where he was submitted in Round 2, derailed his momentum and forced a shift to training with featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, who developed the same anti-grappling skills that let his striking shine.

I usually have a good idea of what fighters are bringing to the table, but this fight has so many variables.

Ruffy hasn’t faced a real takedown threat since the Saint Denis fight. Tsarukyan’s inactivity leaves questions about his form. While it seems this is a clash of styles, I truly can’t confidently predict what will happen. 

It’s probably a bit odd to have one of these guys as a massive favorite in that case, but we’ll have to watch and find out.

Predict the Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy Winner at UFC 331 on PrizePicks

Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy Pick for UFC 331

Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy - 12.5 Minutes Fight Time

How could this fight possibly go the full distance 42.8% of the time, per the model? Look no further than the Van-Pantoja matchup.

It’s extremely difficult to wrestle for 25 minutes straight, especially against a guy with elite takedown defense (86%) like Ruffy. 

Sure, Tsarukyan could make it look easy on the ground with a quick finish once he finally gets it there. But, what if he doesn’t? You likely have the No. 1 contender striking with Ruffy, who is lighter on power from using his own muscles to defend.

Barring that aforementioned ground finish or a patented Ruffy highlight, we might see quite a bit of these 25 minutes.

Make Your Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy Pick for UFC 331 on PrizePicks

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Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi Prediction for UFC 331

Fight Winner Payouts: Patricio Pitbull 3.12x | Dooho Choi 1.31x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

Pitbull vs. Choi Model Results:

This was an unthinkable banger in 2016. It’s still a banger in 2026. That shows some longevity for both Patricio Pitbull and Dooho Choi, which we should commend.

It’s been a long, unusual road for both to reach this spot in a UFC cage now. Pitbull, the long-reigning, dominant 145-pound champion with the now-extinct Bellator promotion, ventured his way to the octagon in 2025, and the results haven’t been what they would have been in his prime.

The Brazilian is 1-2 with a -1.84 SSR, getting past only Dan Ige on the strength of 5 takedowns. However, wrestling at 40 years old is a tough way to make a living.

Meanwhile, Choi has been a total surprise. He returned in 2023 to a draw with Kyle Nelson — a result that clearly shows “ring rust” is a thing. Since, “The Korean Superboy” has rattled off finishes of Bill Algeo, Nate Landwehr, and Daniel “Willycat” Santos — all multi-time promotional winners.

His 1.20% knockdown rate dates all the way back to 2015, and he’s done a better job of stuffing takedowns (12 of 19 since returning) than his career-long 59% takedown D would indicate.

It’s possible that Pitbull is able to revisit some of Choi’s old demons when it comes to defending wrestling attacks, but he’s shown the ability to reverse positions and land devastating ground-and-pound. At striking range, the Korean’s three-inch reach edge should come in handy, as well.

Predict the Pitbull vs. Choi Winner at UFC 331 on PrizePicks

Pitbull vs. Choi Pick for UFC 331

Patricio Pitbull - 36.5 Significant Strikes

Part of Pitbull’s transition to the modern featherweight division has been his size. At 5’6” with a 67” reach, he is out of range constantly.

That’s among the reasons he’s landed just 2.77 significant strikes per minute with poor accuracy (45%). While Korean Superboy’s reputation includes a fight so violent that it’s in the UFC Hall of Fame, his striking D (57%) is actually solid.

Plus, Pitbull’s path to victory includes closing the gap, and all 15 minutes might not be needed if the favorite’s power binge continues.

Make Your Pitbull vs. Choi Pick for UFC 331 on PrizePicks

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Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf Prediction for UFC 331

Fight Winner Payouts: Gable Steveson 1.05x | Sean Sharaf 8.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

One of the most highly anticipated UFC prospects of all time makes his main card debut on Saturday.

Gable Steveson won gold in the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo after a four-year run of All-American efforts in wrestling at Minnesota. He’s also had pit stops in WWE and at an NFL training camp with the Buffalo Bills — all before his 27th birthday.

You kind of figured an MMA career was coming in a heavyweight division that is notoriously kind to wrestlers, and the American got to work with Jackson-Wink MMA alongside Jon Jones, Josh Hokit, and others. His official debut at UFC 329 did not disappoint:

What does the young gun have as an encore? Well, UFC is certainly handling their prize possession with white gloves. Sean Sharaf is 0-2 in UFC with a -7.59 SSR, absorbing 15.00 significant strikes per minute. No one has attempted a takedown against the Xtreme Couture product, either.

Just four pro fights into his career, Steveson doesn’t have all the answers at this point. But Sharaf is a one-dimensional fighter struggling in his one dimension. It’s just hard to envision what an upset would even look like.

Predict the Steveson vs. Sharaf Winner at UFC 331 on PrizePicks

Steveson vs. Sharaf Pick for UFC 331

Sean Sharaf - 9.5 Significant Strikes

It’ll be interesting to see Steveson's approach to this fight. 

His debut against Elisha Ellison was a slugfest. He absorbed 13 significant strikes, which is a concerning amount in 2:31 of octagon time at heavyweight, where just one punch can make such a difference.

I think he wanted to prove his hands were at a requisite level. Does he dive deeper into the bag this time out — perhaps landing a slam or attempting to win the bout with his grappling?

There’s really no doubt that Steveson can get this bout to the floor quickly if he desires. His credentials speak for themselves.

Make Your Steveson vs. Sharaf Pick for UFC 331 on PrizePicks

Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski Prediction for UFC 331

Fight Winner Payouts: Alonzo Menifield 2.94x | Iwo Baraniewski 1.36x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

I’ve only ever had one fighter with at least five UFC-affiliated appearances that didn’t meet 30 octagon minutes. Tom Aspinall was so special and dominant at heavyweight that I included him in the model using my secondary criteria.

Iwo Baraniewski might be the second. Not only has the Polish 205er not seen a second round in his four appearances, but he hasn’t completed a second minute. Jan Blachowicz once coined “Legendary Polish Power” in this same division, but is this the improved version?

Ironically enough, the 26-year-old’s background is in judo and grappling, too. I don’t think we’ve even scratched the surface of seeing his entire toolkit, so a cagey veteran like Alonzo Menifield might be what we need to make it happen.

“Atomic” Alonzo is no stranger to an upset. He just went on the road to Macau and did just that to surging Chinese prospect Zhang Mingyang in a similar spot:

That was the latest chapter in this unexpected end-of-career resurgence, in which he’s won 3 of 4 fights. Over a 20-fight UFC career, the veteran’s +0.03 SSR shows plenty of ups and downs. He’s always primarily looked to land that atomic bomb of a right hand (1.19 KD%).

Baraniewski’s 52% striking defense hasn’t been perfect in some of these early, quick brawls, so it might not be wise to blindly slug it out with Menifield. It probably will result in a loss at some point if he doesn’t fight more sustainably.

But Menifield is also encroaching 40 years old, and four of his last five losses have come via (T)KO. Youth and attrition are on the side of the favorite.

Predict the Menifield vs. Baraniewski Winner at UFC 331 on PrizePicks

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Menifield vs. Baraniewski Pick for UFC 331

Menifield vs. Baraniewski - 3.75 Minutes Fight Time

Well, what do we have here? This minute projection for Baraniewski would be nearly double the longest fight of his career.

That’s probably due to a step up in competition against a grizzled fighter who wins largely the same way. Even with Menifield’s do-or-die tendencies, his average fight time (7:45) is inflated because of some decisions along the way.

Baraniewski’s tempo was undoubtedly more measured against Junior Tafa in June. He just landed a devastating leg kick that signaled the beginning of the end. He could continue to cool it just a bit, including showing off some of that judo that might help him exploit matchups inside the top 10 of the rankings.

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Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC 331: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC 331 Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks or lift the championship belt.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC 331, headlined by Van vs. Pantoja, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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