Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, July 2

The first pitch of the matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers (56-31) and the San Diego Padres (43-42) is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 2, with the Dodgers returning a 1.47x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks to win the matchup on MLB Network.

These clubs begin a potentially critical four-game series in Los Angeles, which might just determine the direction San Diego takes for the remainder of the season. 

The Padres enter this game losing five straight, including being demolished by the Cubs 23-3 on Wednesday. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have won seven of their last nine and have a very comfortable double-digit lead over San Diego in the National League West.

Below, we'll break down our Padres vs. Dodgers prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Padres vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 2

The Dodgers will start SP Roki Sasaki (4.24 xFIP in 72 IP, 14 starts). Sasaki was a star coming out of Japan, but he has yet to replicate that magic in MLB. 

Last year, he struggled with a 6.04 xERA and 5.85 xFIP in 8 starts before going on the injured list with a shoulder injury. He later returned in September for the Dodgers’ playoff run and was used out of the bullpen. 

Sasaki went back into the rotation this season, and at times he’s pitched well, including a trio of starts of at least 5 innings and 1 or fewer earned runs. With that said, he also has a pair of starts with 6+ earned runs allowed. His last start was against San Diego, seeing him go just 4 innings with 5 walks and 3 ER.

The current back-to-back champs still look like one of the best teams in the league and are starting to pull away in the division with a 12-game lead. L.A. owns an MLB-leading 26-11 record since May 19, and no one else in the division is above .500 during that time.  

The Padres will counter with SP Randy Vasquez (4.24 xFIP in 72 IP, 14 starts). Vasquez had a good start to the season, boasting a 3.34 ERA in his first 12 starts, but a 6.34 xERA shows that there may be some luck involved. His last three starts (9.19 ERA) drive that point home.

A potential reason for Vasquez’s regression is that hitters are starting to make contact, especially out of the strike zone. He went from allowing a 63.6% out-of-zone contact rate in his first 12 starts to 77.5% over his last three.

The Padres might be too far out of contention in the NL West, so their focus should likely be on getting into the playoffs through one of the three Wild Card spots. They're only two games out of that final spot, but there are many teams in contention.

If San Diego wants to remain in contention, it needs to stop the horrible skid. The club has gone just 19-26 since being tied for first place in the NL West on May 10 with a 24-16 record.

Padres vs. Dodgers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 2

The Dodgers enter Thursday’s game as home favorites against the Padres, returning a 1.47x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Padres vs. Dodgers game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (2x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.72x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Padres 2.56x | Dodgers 1.47x

Play the Padres vs. Dodgers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction on Over/Under – 7/2/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Padres vs. Dodgers prediction on the run total for Thursday, July 2.

Lock in your Padres vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Vasquez has not pitched well at Dodger Stadium, owning a 5.19 ERA in 8.2 innings.
• Sasaki allows opposing batters to smash the ball to the tune of a 44.8% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 14th percentile. The Padres are a solid 11th in the league with a 40.4% team hard-hit rate.
• Vasquez doesn’t do well getting hitters to swing outside the strike zone, maintaining a 28.1% chase rate that ranks in the 25th percentile. The Dodgers have a disciplined lineup, and their 26.9% chase rate is the second-best in the league. 
• When Los Angeles goes after pitches, they do not come up empty-handed. Their 58.2% chase contact rate is in the 10th spot in MLB.
•  In Vasquez’s last appearance against the Dodgers on June 27, he allowed 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings in Los Angeles’ 15-3 pummeling of San Diego.
• Ten or more total runs have been scored in five of Sasaki’s last eight games.

Padres vs. Dodgers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/2/26

Here are the top Padres vs. Dodgers picks to target on Thursday, July 2. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Fernando Tatis Jr. and Freddie Freeman.

Padres 2B/RF Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Dodgers: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Tatis Jr. went 1-for-3 with a double against Sasaki in the June 26 matchup vs. the Dodgers.
• After a slow start to the year, Tatis Jr. had a red-hot June, with his .191 ISO and .374 wOBA each being a monthly best.
• The Padres’ 2B/RF has one of the most monstrous swings in the game, as his 54.1% hard-hit rate ranks fifth. That could be trouble for Sasaki, who is allowing a 45.1% hard-hit rate (12th percentile).
• Sasaki throws a four-seamer on 43.5% of his pitches, his most of any offering. Tatis Jr. handles them very well, however, including a .323 wOBA and 114 wRC+.

Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman vs. Padres: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Freeman has a lot of success against Vasquez, going 5-for-9 lifetime with 3 doubles.
• The Dodgers first baseman’s .296 xBA ranks ninth; Vasquez is allowing a .308 xBA that is in the second percentile.
• June was a stellar month for Freeman, with his .424 wOBA and 172 wRC+ making for his best month of the year.
• Freeman has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball; his .508 wOBA since June 24 is 12th in the league.

Add Freddie Freeman to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Although we haven’t hit the All-Star break, Los Angeles looks like it has firm control of the NL West. If San Diego wants to keep any pulse in the division, it'll need to come out strong in this series.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Padres vs. Dodgers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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