Padres vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB Picks for NLDS Game 2 – Sunday, October 4

The San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers game is set for 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, televised by FS1. According to PrizePicks, the Brewers are favored with a 1.69x payout to win outright.

The Brewers grabbed a 1-0 series lead Saturday with a 3-2 comeback victory, putting them two wins away from advancing to the NLCS. San Diego will turn to SP Michael King in Game 2, while Milwaukee counters with breakout right-hander SP Logan Henderson.

Below, we'll break down our Padres vs. Brewers prediction and picks for Sunday’s NLDS Game 2, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your picks for Padres vs. Brewers on PrizePicks now.

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Padres vs. Brewers, Winner Payout, Over/Under for NLDS Game 2 – Sunday, October 4

Michael King (4.34 xFIP) gets the ball for San Diego after an outstanding regular season that saw him pitch to a 3.21 ERA despite an xFIP that was a full run above his ERA.

King has been excellent at keeping games under control when working deep; he completed at least five innings in 28 of his 32 starts and averaged 5.8 innings per outing this season.

San Diego's starter also enters with serious recent momentum. He threw seven innings of dominance, allowing 1 hit while posting 8 strikeouts against the Cubs in the Wild Card round.

Milwaukee counters with one of baseball's more exciting young pitchers. Henderson (3.30 xFIP) went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, striking out 110 hitters while walking only 19 in the regular season.

His 5.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks right among the very best in the league, and Henderson's incredibly low walk rate (1.74 BB/9) should help him navigate a tough Padres lineup.

Henderson has especially cooked at home this season, where he went 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 across 44 innings.

Padres vs. Brewers Winner Payout, Over/Under for MLB Playoffs – Sunday, October 4

The Brewers enter Game 2 as home favorites, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright. 

Here are the full payouts for the Padres vs. Brewers game on PrizePicks.

Make your Padres vs. Brewers prediction on the winner on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Padres vs. Brewers Prediction on Winner for NLDS – 10/4/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Padres vs. Brewers prediction on the winner for Sunday’s NLDS Game 2.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from FanGraphs or Baseball Savant.

• Milwaukee went 55-26 at home this season, tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for the best home record in baseball. San Diego, meanwhile, went only 40-41 on the road.
• The Brewers finished the regular season with a 107 wRC+ (third), leading all of baseball in hits en route to scoring 5.14 runs per game. The Padres rank ninth with a season-long wRC+ of 102.
• My biggest concern for the Padres is their recent bullpen struggles. Over the last two weeks, San Diego relievers posted a 4.94 ERA and 4.43 xFIP (24th), compared to a ridiculous 2.47 ERA and 3.30 xFIP (second) for Milwaukee's bullpen.
• That bullpen split could become especially enormous in a postseason game where both managers have a quick hook. Milwaukee's relievers have struck out 24.6% of batters over the last two weeks, while allowing only a .189 batting average.
• Henderson gives Milwaukee a quality home-field pitching advantage. His 1.84 home ERA was over a full run better than his 2.94 mark on the road, while King’s road ERA of 3.64 is almost a full run above his home ERA (2.74).

Lock in your Padres vs. Brewers prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Padres vs. Brewers Picks, Player Stats for NLDS Game 2 on PrizePicks – 10/4/26

Here are the top Padres vs. Brewers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NLDS Game 2. Today's MLB picks include Michael King and Logan Henderson.

Padres SP Michael King vs. Brewers: 5 Strikeouts

• King has met or surpassed this projection in four of his last five starts. 
• He also generated a 10.2% swinging-strike rate over his last 10 starts, showing that the underlying bat-missing ability is still there.
• King has faced Milwaukee three times in his career and recorded 10, 8, and 5 strikeouts in those outings. That's 23 strikeouts in 18.2 innings, good for a 32.8% strikeout rate.
• Milwaukee has been striking out its fair share recently. Over the last two weeks, the Brew Crew own the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 27.2%.
• With the Padres bullpen struggling recently (sixth-worst xFIP over the last two weeks), that could give the Padres extra incentive to ride with King for a few extra pitches, which could make all the difference in hitting this projection.

Add Michael King to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Brewers SP Logan Henderson vs. Padres: 6 Strikeouts

• Henderson is a fantastic strikeout pitcher, but this projection could simply too high for postseason baseball, where the margin for error for starting pitchers is microscopic. 
• Milwaukee has one of baseball's deepest and most talented bullpens. Henderson hasn’t thrown more than 87 pitches in either of his last two starts, and now Milwaukee will have an even quicker hook with its starting pitchers than usual.
• The Padres lineup is not a good target for strikeouts. They own just a 21.6% strikeout rate this season, ninth-lowest in the majors.
• They’ve also been great offensively with 134 wRC+ (second) and a 21.4% K% (21st) over the last two weeks.
• Henderson had a 10.8 K/9 during the first half of the season but saw that number drop to 9.77 during the second half.

Add Logan Henderson to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Padres vs. Brewers Picks on PrizePicks

The Brewers already have a 1-0 advantage in the NLDS, and Sunday's pitching matchup could set them up to extend it to 2-0 in this best-of-five series.

Milwaukee has an elite home record, arguably the league’s best bullpen, and a young starter who dominated at American Family Field this season. Can San Diego and its veteran SP Michael King stop the Milwaukee momentum?

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