Two undefeated top-10 teams clash in Happy Valley in a highly-anticipated matchup, as Oregon vs. Penn State highlight the Week 5 college football slate at Beaver Stadium.
We'll dive into the Oregon vs. Penn State prediction and picks for this heavyweight Big Ten showdown, including the player picks for PrizePicks CFB DFS this week to target.
The game between #3 Penn State and #8 Oregon kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC this Saturday. All eyes will be on the QB matchup, as Drew Allar gets his first test of the season vs. Oregon QB Dante Moore, who has put himself in the Heisman conversation.
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Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction, Preview for Week 5
The Oregon Ducks head east for their biggest road test since joining the Big Ten last year.
Oregon went a perfect 4–0 in conference road games in 2024 and beat Penn State, 45–37, in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Meanwhile, Penn State gets its first real challenge of the season — and it's in a season-defining spot.
Oregon Ducks Preview
- Scoring has not been an issue for Oregon, averaging 50.7 points per game through four victories.
- The Ducks rank fourth nationally in Net EPA/play (+0.54) and 17th in offensive success rate (50%).
- QB Dante Moore has thrown 11 TD passes this season — a dramatic leap after coming off the bench last season.
Penn State Nittany Lions Preview
- The Nittany Lions haven’t been tested in their 3–0 start, notching blowout wins over Nevada, FIU, and Villanova by an average margin of 38.3 points per game.
- Penn State ranks 17th nationally in defensive Net EPA/play (-0.29), third-best in the Big Ten.
- They were dominant at home in conference play last season, allowing just 10.2 points per game across five games at Beaver Stadium.
Oregon vs. Penn State Picks for CFB DFS
These are the top Oregon vs. Penn State picks for the Saturday night Big Ten matchup. Projections via PrizePicks college football game — make your player picks to win real money on every game.
Penn State QB Drew Allar vs. Oregon Projection: 226.5 Passing Yards
- Allar has 4 TD passes in three games this season, compared to 8 TDs over his first three games in 2024.
- The senior hasn’t topped 217 passing yards in a game this year but did throw for 226 yards in last season’s Big Ten Championship loss to Oregon.
- Penn State ranks 80th in EPA/pass, while Oregon’s defense sits 14th nationally in the same category.
- In five home Big Ten games last year, Allar eclipsed 227 passing yards just once.
Penn State RB Kaytron Allen vs. Oregon Projection: 68.5 Rushing Yards
- RB Kaytron Allen racked up 144 rushing yards in Week 2 vs. FIU, followed by 86 yards against Villanova.
- Despite early passing struggles, Penn State’s run game is thriving, ranking 13th nationally in EPA/rush (0.24).
- Allen torched Oregon for 124 yards on just 14 carries in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.
- Oregon has faced three FBS squads that rank significantly lower in EPA/Rush than Penn State.
- The Ducks yielded 144 rushing yards to Oklahoma State (92nd), and 178 yards on the ground to Northwestern (68th).
Oregon WR Malik Benson vs. Penn State Projection: 34.5 Receiving Yards
- Oregon WR Malik Benson has taken a unique path through college football, playing at Alabama and Florida State before transferring to Oregon.
- The Kansas native has yet to break out this season. His best outing came against Northwestern, where he caught 4 passes for 62 yards — the second-highest total of his career.
- According to PFF, Benson has made significant progress: his offensive grade jumped from 59.2 at Florida State in 2024 to 78.6 in his first year at Oregon.
- His catch rate sits at 78%, and he’s averaging 11.17 yards per reception — up from 9.42 last season.
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The Nittany Lions look for their second top-10 under head coach James Franklin since 2016 and seek revenge for last December’s loss to Oregon coming up on Saturday. Both teams will be looking for their first quality win of the season, as both have playoff hopes.
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