NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks: Back Ravens, Vikings This Week?

Through three weeks, if you backed all of our best survivor picks, you’ve come away unscathed through your pools. The Miami Dolphins played the Kansas City Chiefs closer than expected, but the Chiefs eventually got the job done.

Let’s highlight the best Week 4 survivor picks for your win-or-go-home pools and walk through some strategies to get you to Week 5.

This week, we'll once again focus on teams with favorable matchups based on the numbers and eye test. The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings face teams who could pick #1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins. 

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NFL Survivor Pool Week 4 Picks & Strategy

Week 4 has four home favorites to hopefully get us officially through the first month of the season. The Seattle Seahawks take on the 0-3 Los Angeles Chargers. If you ended up not taking Seattle last week, this could be a great bounce-back opportunity after losing to the Marcus Mariota-led Washington Commanders in Week 3.

The Buffalo Bills are another home favorite, taking on their division rival New England Patriots. As always, divisional games can be tough to call. So even as home favorites against the Patriots, who have played well below expectations, this is one to potentially avoid.

The final two home favorites are the Ravens and Vikings, both double-digit home favorites on Sunday. We’ll discuss more in our "Teams to Target."

Best Week 4 Survivor Picks: Two Teams to Target

Here are the top two teams to target for your Week 4 survivor picks, including two big home favorites on the spread in Week 4.

Also listed are the winner payouts, spreads, and totals for each game via PrizePicks, where you can make your NFL picks and earn money if you’re right!

Make your Week 4 NFL picks on PrizePicks — including winners and spreads!

Note: payouts represent real-money earnings if a pick wins on PrizePicks. For example, a 2x represents a $100 entry on a correct pick pays out $200.

Best Week 4 Survivor Pick: Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were in our Week 3 picks to avoid, and this week they move into our teams to target after a wild win in Brazil over the Dallas Cowboys. The biggest storyline headed into this game is RB Derrick Henry’s first game against the Titans since he left for Baltimore.

The matchup for the Titans could not get any worse. The Ravens currently rank third in rushing yards per game while the Titans are allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per contest.

Tennessee QB Cam Ward has received a lot of criticism lately, such as having his own head coach say he’s having “PTSD from being sacked so many times last year." According to SumerSports, Ward has -0.13 EPA/play, which ranks in the bottom third of starting QBs.

Tony Pollard is also nursing an injury and is one of our sits of the week for Week 4. A bad offense and a team that can’t stop the run should mean it’ll be a tough out for the Titans.

Pick the Ravens to win vs. Titans on PrizePicks now!

Best Survivor Pick: Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings

Last week, we marked as the Dolphins as the team to target in your survivor matchups moving forward. Once again, Miami enters this game as a double-digit (10.5) underdog.

The Vikings have a blitz-heavy defense with defensive coordinator Brian Flores at the helm. They blitz at a ridiculous 66.4% of plays, far and away the highest percentage in the league. Add to that the Dolphins have been pressured on almost 27% of dropbacks, fourth-worst in the league. 

The defensive vs. offensive line matchup is a nightmare for the Dolphins, and Miami’s run game won’t prove much help either. RB De’Von Achane will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL, meaning RB Ollie Gordon will likely take the reins in the backfield. 

This stout Vikings defense also ranks as the fourth-best unit against the run, with Miami currently as a middle-of-the-pack run offense. A potential big factor is the health of WR Justin Jefferson. If Jefferson misses time, that’s one key weapon that could help Miami keep it close.

While the Dolphins kept it competitive against the Chiefs last week, that success could expire with plenty of tough matchups ahead vs. the Vikings.

Pick the Vikings to win vs. Dolphins on PrizePicks now!

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Week 4 Survivor Picks to Avoid

Even if you’re not rolling with the picks above, avoid these teams when making your survivor pool pick in Week 4 — as the teams favored on the spread on PrizePicks may be riskier than they seem.

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Two teams expected to contend for premium picks in next year’s draft battle in MetLife Stadium on Sunday. The Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites but have to make the west-to-east travel to New York.

We picked the Seahawks last week, noting that data science said there isn’t a drastic difference in win percentage of those teams making that travel. The Seahawks then proceeded to get upset by the Commanders in a rainy game. 

This is one of the few games this season that Arizona comes in as the favorite. The Cardinals defense is one of the worst in the league against both the pass and run.

This could be a potential get-right game for a struggling Giants offense. According to 4 for 4, this is a great matchup for the Giants offensive line against a Cardinals team that struggles to get pressure on the quarterback.

New York QB Jameis Winston has 229 passing yards over two games this season. The offensive line matchup plus the Cardinals missing CB Will Johnson could mean the Giants push for their second win.

Pick Cardinals to win vs. Giants on PrizePicks now!

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders (London Game)

Another international game appears on our games to avoid. Despite both teams ranking in the bottom half of total offense, this has the potential to be a shootout with an implied game total of 47.5 points. 

The Colts are the worst defense in the league, allowing the most yards per game (417.3), and the Commanders aren’t that much better, ranking as the sixth-worst in that department. 

Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones is still trying to get back into his groove after his torn Achilles. He’s in the bottom 10 in EPA/play (-0.16). He now has that opportunity, albeit in England, against the second-worst pass defense in the NFL. 

The Colts still have the Dolphins on their schedule later in the year, so this is a good week to avoid Indy and stash the pick for later in the season.

Pick Colts to win vs. Commanders on PrizePicks now! 

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Best Week 4 Survivor Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Even without the so-called “Derrick Henry revenge game narrative,” the numbers make it difficult to back the Titans in any facet of the game. It’s simply too challenging to think the Titans will pose any threat with a bad run defense against Henry, paired with struggling to move the ball on offense.

Make Week 4 NFL Picks on PrizePicks

Take it one week at a time, and don’t lose your NFL survivor pool in Week 4! Ride with the Ravens or the Vikings at home this week — the best picks on the board for NFL Week 4.

Don’t wait until kickoff to lock in your picks — make your NFL picks for Week 4 on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

With games returning, just pick NFL players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, over/unders, and award futures, now available in 36 states.

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