NFL is officially back on Wednesday night with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks.
The season opener means it’s time to lock in those fantasy teams and your Week 1 survivor picks. And we’re here to make sure you’re alive in both after Week 1.
Before you know it, 18 weeks of action will come and go, but at the end of it, will you have survived all the way?
Let’s highlight the best Week 1 survivor picks for your win-or-go-home pools, and walk through some common strategies for starting your season off right.
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Survivor Pool Week 1 Strategy and Outlook
NFL Week 1 is always tricky because of the question marks and changes from the end of 2025; you never quite know how teams will come out looking. Some of the best teams come out flat, and some underdogs come out looking like Super Bowl contenders.
There is no one way to play survivor pools, but the most important thing is to play it relatively safe so you’re not eliminated from the get-go. Upsets happen all the time, but the common play is to maximize early survival. Another common strategy is to pick a home team.
Early in the season, it can be advantageous to stick with teams that keep their main talent core and key coaching pieces from 2025, so there is less uncertainty.
Strategy heavily depends on your pool size. The larger the pool, the more you want to go against the grain by picking a less popular team — but not necessarily a team completely off the board. Opposed to the play-it-safe strategy mentioned earlier, which works best in smaller pools.
Week 1 Survivor Picks: Teams to Target
Here are the top two teams to target for your Week 1 survivor picks, including two home favorites on this week’s slate.
Also listed are the winner payouts, spreads, and totals for each game via PrizePicks, where you can make your NFL picks and earn money if you’re right!
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Note: payouts represent real-money earnings if a pick wins on PrizePicks. For example, a 2x represents a $100 entry on a correct pick pays out $200.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
The Chargers open up as 9.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks with an 81 percent implied probability to win on the app. They’re opening their season at home in SoFi Stadium. The Chargers return a healthy core and brought in offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to energize their offense.
According to SurvivorGrid, the Chargers are a safe pick for not only this week but Week 2 as well against the Raiders. After that, they’re not heavily favored again until Week 11 so it’s best to use them in these first two weeks.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Another home team here with another high-powered offense. The Jaguars are 7.5-point favorites against the Browns with a 78% implied probability to win.
Cleveland is starting DeShaun Watson starting at QB for the first time since 2024; he looked very beyond rusty in the preseason, passing for 36 yards on 12 attempts with an INT vs. the Bills.
Adding to that, the Browns traded NFL record holder for single-season sacks Myles Garrett to the LA Rams this offseason, weakening the defense that made them competitive in many games last season.
Jacksonville made it to the 2025 AFC Divisional Round, maintained their core behind head coach Liam Coen, and they play in a tough division, leaving fewer chances to pick them safely in future weeks.
And even outside of their division, they’re set up for a gauntlet after Week 1: at Broncos, vs. Patriots, at Bengals, vs. Eagles, vs. Texans, vs. Colts, and at Ravens before they finally get a reprieve with the Titans in Week 9.
Pick the Jaguars to win on PrizePicks now!
Week 1 Survivor Picks to Avoid
Even if you’re not rolling with the picks above, avoid these teams when making your survivor pool pick in Week 1 — or the teams that are favored on the spread on PrizePicks, but may be riskier than they seem.
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Miami Dolphins)
The Raiders are projected to have one of the lowest win total projections in the NFL, currently projected with a 2.32x payout (less than 50% probability) to hit 7+ wins on PrizePicks. But this week, they are a popular against-the-grain pick. The Raiders are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Miami Dolphins with a 63% implied probability to win.
They are starting Kirk Cousins at QB, but are dealing with a potential Ashton Jeanty ankle injury in the backfield, though he is expected to play.
While the Dolphins are also one of the NFL’s worst squads, both teams have too many question marks to be safely chosen this week, so early in the season with 32 teams on the block.
Pick Raiders to win vs. Dolphins on PrizePicks now!
Buffalo Bills (@ Houston Texans)
The first road team mentioned here with the Buffalo Bills headed to Houston. The Bills are 1.5-point favorites. However, Josh Allen does not have a great history against the Texans. Just last season, he threw 2 INTs in Houston, and he's averaged less than 200 pass yards per game in his last two meetings.
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense has held the Bills under 20 points in back-to-back matchups across the last two seasons.
The Texans defense is again expected to be one of the best in the league, which will carry them into contention this year. According to RBSDM, the Texans were the second-best defense with a -0.108 EPA/play in 2025.
The Bills are a common survivor pick week-over-week because of their seven straight double-digit win seasons, but this week is the one to fade them as they open the season on the road.
Pick Bills to win vs. Texans on PrizePicks now!
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Best Week 1 Survivor Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars are my top pick this week for survivor pools vs. the Cleveland Browns. Jacksonville’s potent offense in addition to an overall questionable Browns team makes them the team to target as they start the season at home
The Jaguars also hold very little future value at the moment due to their schedule, so take advantage of this Week 1 matchup. That said, they should be a popular pick vs. a dysfunctional Browns team.
Make 2026 NFL Picks on PrizePicks
One week at a time — don’t lose your survivor pool in Week 1. Ride with the Jaguars or Chargers at home this week as the best picks on the board.
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With games returning, just pick NFL players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, over/unders, and award futures, now available in 35 states.
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