MLB MVP Race: Favorites, Predictions to Win AL, NL MVP

The MLB All-Star break already provided one of the best Home Run Derby contests in recent memory thanks to an all-time clutch performance from Cardinals OF Jordan Walker. Next up is the MLB All-Star game beginning on Tuesday, July 14, at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Following tonight’s All-Star game, the second half of the regular season begins with the Mets vs. Phillies on Thursday, July 16. Now could be the time to call your shots for season-long MLB predictions, with the playoffs just around the corner.

That includes season-long awards, like the MVP race and Cy Young awards. The favorites to win the AL MVP and NL MVP feature familiar faces, like Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

Let’s look at the current MLB MVP race before the end of the All-Star break, featuring an AL MVP prediction for PrizePicks.

Make your MLB MVP picks on PrizePicks Team Picks now!

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

MLB AL MVP Race Favorites: Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero Lead Pack

Beginning with the more competitive league, the AL MVP race has opened up following the long-term injury of Yankees OF Aaron Judge. The three-time MVP and winner of the last two AL MVPs has not played since May 31 as he recovers from a rib injury.

In his stead, Astros DH Yordan Alvarez and Rays 3B Junior Caminero stand out as the top contenders entering the second half of the MLB season. Check out the five shortest payouts to take home the 2026 AL MVP on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

With Judge recovering from injury, Yankees 1B Ben Rice has the fourth-shortest payout to win AL MVP (10x). While he was an early exit at the Home Run Derby, Rice’s MVP campaign is elevated by 29 home runs (third-most) and a .279 batting average. 

Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. is a familiar face who finished fourth in MVP voting last season and second in 2024. His .286/.355/.461 slash line continues to carry the load for an underwhelming 38-59 Royals squad. 

With Kansas City featuring a 16.66x payout to qualify for the 2026 MLB Playoffs, via PrizePicks Team Picks, his AL MVP campaign feels unlikely. 

The same can be said for Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz, with the A’s sporting a 41-55 record and a 14.28x payout to qualify for the playoffs. Regardless, his 14.28x payout to win AL MVP acknowledges his breakout season with 20 HRs, 66 RBIs, and a .266/.405/.497 slash line.

Alvarez and Caminero feel like the true AL MVP contenders. The Astros are in playoff contention with a 47-51 record and a 2.77x payout to qualify for the postseason. Meanwhile, Caminero has helped boost the Rays to an American League-best 56-38 record. 

We’ll get to the Alvarez vs. Caminero debate shortly with our AL MVP prediction. 

Lock in your MLB MVP predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks for the chance to earn real money!

MLB NL MVP Race Favorites: Shohei Ohtani Enjoying Cushion

Unlike the AL MVP race, there may be little contention in the National League. Dodgers two-star Shohei Ohtani has won four MVPs and is chasing his fourth consecutive award this season.

Ohtani would join elite company, as Barry Bonds is the only player to win four straight MVPs when he did it in a Giants uniform from 2001 to 2004.  

Here’s a full picture of Ohtani’s payout to win the NL MVP, followed by his short list of competitors.

Behind Ohtani, Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong has a 5.88x payout to win the NL MVP, followed by Nationals OF James Wood (22.22x). The Cubs currently hold the National League’s top Wild Card spot with a 54-42 record, and the Nats are in contention with a 48-49 record but have a 9.09x payout to qualify for the playoffs.

Frankly, Crow-Armstrong could be the only player capable of catching Ohtani. Chicago is five games behind the Brewers for first place in the NL Central. Crow-Armstrong boasts a jaw-dropping .374/.476/.755 slash line since June. 

If he maintains that kind of production, the Cubs could push to win the NL Central, aiding the center fielder’s chance of putting pressure on Ohtani.

However, it’s difficult to match Ohtani’s two-way ability. In fact, no one in MLB can match this kind of production. In his first season as a full-time starter for the Dodgers, Ohtani carries a 1.79 ERA, 2.70 xERA, and 3.34 SIERA, per FanGraphs.

Alongside his dominance on the mound, the four-time MVP boasts a .293/.403/.549 slash line. After a slow start in the home run department, he has 22 dingers at the break, driving in 65 runs. 

Ohtani is a vital cog of the dominant Dodgers, who carry a league-best 61-36 record. PrizePicks Team Picks gives Los Angeles the shortest payout to win the 2026 World Series (2.77x), as it chases the first three-peat since the Yankees pulled off the feat from 1998 to 2000.  

Make your MLB predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks, including MVP, World Series winners, and more!

MLB Prediction to Win AL MVP

Let’s dig into our top MLB MVP prediction, focusing on the heated American League debate. This may be a two-man race between Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero, with Bobby Witt Jr. on the outside looking in thanks to a struggling Royals squad.

Junior Caminero to Win AL MVP – Yes 4.54x | No 1.16x

The Astros are 1.5 games back from the final Wild Card spot in the American League and sport a 2.77x payout to qualify for the playoffs. If Houston does not make the playoffs, Yordan Alvarez can still take home the AL MVP.

We last saw MVPs miss the playoffs in 2021, with Shohei Ohtani (Angels) and Bryce Harper (Phillies) each winning the award. From 2015 to 2021, four of seven AL MVPs did not make the playoffs, and three NL MVPs failed to qualify for the postseason.

Alvarez certainly carries a case to join that company with his 31 home runs and 70 RBIs, each sitting second in the league. Junior Caminero has the power to match, proven by 28 big flies (tied for fourth-most) and 59 RBIs. 

Caminero’s stats are a step under Alvarez, though. The Astros’ designated hitter bats .318 with a ridiculous .335 expected batting average (100th), per Baseball Savant. This is not a case of imminent negative regression.

Meanwhile, Caminero sports an impressive .279 batting average, but his .272 xBA (80th percentile) is unlikely to catch Alvarez. 

So, why would Caminero push Alvarez’s incredible campaign for an AL MVP? This one is about the playoffs. As mentioned, Houston is hovering around .500 and may miss the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Rays, with the eighth-lowest payroll in baseball, carry the best record in the AL (56-38) and lead the Yankees by three games in the AL East. 

Caminero’s loaded Savant page, including a .372 xwOBA (91st percentile), .505 xSLG (89th percentile), and a 51.8% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile), is carrying the load for one of the American League’s best squads.

If the Astros fall short of the postseason while the Rays maintain a lead in the AL East, Caminero has a true argument to become the AL MVP favorite.

Pick Junior Caminero to win AL MVP on PrizePicks Team Picks!

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make MLB Futures Predictions on PrizePicks

Ohtani has become the clear favorite to win the NL MVP, as the Dodgers chase their third consecutive World Series win this season. The American League MVP race could provide drama down the homestretch; Yordan Alvarez features stronger stats than Junior Caminero, but the Rays currently hold one of the best records in baseball.

Now could be the perfect time to lock in your MLB predictions at the All-Star break. PrizePicks Team Picks offers payouts for MLB MVPs, playoff qualifiers, division winners, the 2026 World Series champion, and more. 

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.