Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, July 16

MLB is set to return from the All-Star Break, and the action will stay in Philadelphia. The New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies game is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 16, with the Phillies favored and returning a 1.72x payout if they come out on top, per PrizePicks.

As the second half of the regular season begins, these two teams are headed in completely opposite directions. The Phillies have a 54-43 record and sit just two games behind the Atlanta Braves for first place in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Mets find themselves a staggering 17 games under .500 and are in last place in the NL East.

Below, we'll break down our Mets vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 16

The Phillies have come a long way from the team that began the season 9-19 and ultimately fired manager Rob Thomson. Under the guidance of interim manager Don Mattingly, this group has put together a 45-24 record since he took over and clawed its way back into the NL East race. 

Meanwhile, the Mets have been floundering. In fact, this is a group that lost 16 of its final 22 games heading into the All-Star Break, including being swept by the Boston Red Sox to cap it off.

As far as Thursday is concerned, the Phillies will send SP Aaron Nola to the mound. Nola had his fair share of struggles throughout the first half with a 3.90 xFIP and a 4.23 xERA across 97.0 innings. However, the right-hander has started to turn the corner, as he yielded 2 or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts.

SP Christian Scott will toe the rubber for a Mets team that is looking to get the second half started on the right foot. Scott has tallied a 4.00 xFIP to go along with a .454 xERA in 54.0 innings. He did surrender just 2 earned runs on 3 hits across 4.1 innings in a 6-2 win against the Phillies back on June 27. 

Mets vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 16

The Phillies enter Thursday's game as a home favorite against the Mets, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Mets vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (2.38x payout)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (1.88x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Mets 2.04x | Phillies 1.72x

Play the Mets vs. Phillies winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction on Winner – 7/16/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mets vs. Phillies prediction on the winner for Thursday, July 16.

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• The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Mets, including 6-1 at home.
• Despite a 5.75 ERA on the season, Nola has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in five of his last six outings.
• Philadelphia has been victorious in eight of Nola’s last 13 starts.
• According to FanGraphs, Nola has racked up 10.33 K/9. Meanwhile, the Mets own a 21.9% strikeout rate, which ranks 16th in the majors.
• Scott has a 4.51 expected ERA (xERA), which ranks in the 34th percentile.
• The Phillies rank 17th in runs (424), while the Mets are 23rd in that department with 398 to their credit.
• The Mets had a 4-7 record in their last 11 games before the break.

Mets vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/16/26

Here are the top Mets vs. Phillies picks to target on Thursday, July 16. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber and Mets C Francisco Alvarez.

Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber vs. Mets: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score 

• Schwarber is hitting .269 (7-for-26) with a home run and 2 RBI over his last seven games.
• According to Baseball Savant, Schwarber has registered a 53.1% hard-hit rate, ranking in the 96th percentile.
• Schwarber has also tallied a 19.4% barrel rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile.
• The Phillies’ slugger has collected a .256 batting average to go along with 25 home runs and 60 RBI in 92 career games against the Mets.

Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mets C Francisco Alvarez vs. Phillies: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Alvarez is hitting .333 (6-for-18) with 3 RBI across his last five games.
• The Mets’ catcher has registered multiple hits in two of those contests.
• Alvarez has tallied a 15.3% barrel rate, which ranks in the 92nd percentile.
• The veteran backstop has gone 2-for-6 with a home run and 3 RBI in 6 career plate appearances against Nola.

Add Francisco Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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NL East division rivals face off when the Phillies host the Mets in a primetime affair at Citizens Bank Park. Despite SP Aaron Nola’s struggles earlier this season, the veteran right-hander has been solid lately and could keep the Phillies in this contest. 

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Mets vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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