The New York Mets (7-12) are set to get the baseball action started against the Chicago Cubs (9-9) on Friday, April 17, at 2:20 p.m. ET, beginning a three-game series at Wrigley Field.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Cubs currently have a 56% implied probability to win on Friday.
Below, we'll break down our Mets vs. Cubs prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB showdown, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Mets vs. Cubs on PrizePicks now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, April 17
In the series opener, it will be the Mets’ Kodai Senga (3.43 xFIP across 3 starts and 14.0 IP in 2026) and the Cubs’ Edward Cabrera (4.38 xFIP across 3 starts and 16.2 IP) squaring off on the mound.
Although Senga is carrying a 7.07 ERA, he has a 3.95 xERA and is sitting in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate (29.7%), per Baseball Savant. At the same time, he’s in the 40th percentile in walk rate (10.9%) and 31st percentile in barrel rate (10.5%).
Amid the ongoing absence of RF Juan Soto, the Mets’ bats have been mightily struggling, producing the third-worst wRC+ (78), second-worst wOBA (.281), and second-worst ISO in the league so far, via FanGraphs.
Cabrera is on the opposite side of Senga, as he’s posting a 1.62 ERA but a 3.76 xERA through three starts. While Cabrera is in the 63rd percentile in xBA (.224), he’s in just the 35th percentile in strikeout rate (19.7%) and 21st percentile in walk rate (13.6%).
Across their first 18 games, the Cubs’ bats have tallied the eighth-best wRC+ (109), ninth-best wOBA (.331), and 13th-lowest strikeout rate (22.4%).
Mets vs. Cubs Spread, Over/Under – Friday, April 17
The Cubs enter Friday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.66x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Mets vs. Cubs game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (2.12x payout)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Mets 2.12x | Cubs 1.66x
Play the Mets vs. Cubs spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Mets vs. Cubs Prediction to Win – 4/17/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mets vs. Cubs prediction on the winner for Friday, April 17.
Lock in your Mets vs. Cubs prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- Despite Cabrera having some shaky metrics, he’s only given up at least 1 ER in his last start on April 11 against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Once Cabrera exits the contest, Chicago’s bullpen has the ninth-best BABIP (.276) and 12th-highest groundball rate (43.7%).
- New York’s bullpen currently has the 12th-worst BABIP (.299) and the 12th-worst xERA (4.25).
- Against right-handed pitchers this season, the Mets are notching the fourth-worst wRC+ (76), third-worst wOBA (.278), and worst ISO (.096) in that split.
- Just last season, Chicago had the eighth-best wRC+ (109), 12th-best wOBA (.321), and ninth-best ISO (.177) at home.
- As home favorites in 2025, the Cubs boasted the fifth-best win rate (65.3%).
- Meanwhile, the Mets had the third-worst win rate (32.4%) when playing as road underdogs last season.
Mets vs. Cubs Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/17/26
Here are the top Mets vs. Cubs picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, April 17. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include LF Ian Happ and 2B Marcus Semien.
Cubs LF Ian Happ vs. Mets Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- As a switch-hitter, Ian Happ recorded a 123 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and .193 ISO against right-handed hurlers in 2025. He has a 132 wRC+, .366 wOBA, and .275 ISO in that split early in 2026.
- Winds are blowing out at Wrigley Field with the temperature approaching 70 degrees on Friday, and it’s one of the most wind-receptive stadiums in MLB.
- Last season, Senga accrued a 4.49 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, and 1.09 HR/9 to lefties. Early this season, he has a 4.71 xFIP, 2.37 WHIP, and 2.84 HR/9.
- Despite a slow start to the new campaign, Happ has multiple hits in two of his last three games.
Add Ian Happ to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Mets 2B Marcus Semien vs. Cubs Projection: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Despite the hitter-friendly weather at Wrigley Field on Friday, Marcus Semien has just a 53 wRC+, .244 wOBA, and .075 ISO in his first 74 PAs on the Mets.
- Additionally, Semien is in the 27th percentile in xwOBA (.285), 30th percentile in xBA (.219), and 35th percentile in xSLG (.356).
- Cabrera held a 2.93 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 27.5% strikeout rate when facing right-handed sluggers in 2025. He has a 1.81 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP, and 36.0% strikeout rate in the same split to begin the 2026 season.
- Semien has only gotten at least 1 hit in nine of his first 19 games.
Add Marcus Semien to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Mets vs. Cubs Picks on PrizePicks
The Mets are hoping to put an end to their current eight-game losing streak on Friday’s clash against the Cubs. As for Chicago, they’re aiming to extend their win streak to three games after most recently defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game series.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Mets vs. Cubs picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.
