Mets vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, July 22

The New York Mets will play the final game of their three-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, July 22, at 2:10 p.m. ET. Milwaukee is favored against New York, returning a 1.63x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks to come out on top in Wednesday’s matinee.

Milwaukee and New York have split the opening two games. After the Brewers took the first contest, the Mets came away with a convincing 4-0 win on Tuesday behind SP Zac Thornton’s first career victory.

Below, we'll break down our Mets vs. Brewers prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB game, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Mets vs. Brewers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 22

Entering Wednesday, the Brewers possess the second-best record in baseball at 63-38. Milwaukee picked up right where they left off in the first half, with four wins in its first five games after returning from the All-Star break.

The Brewers will send SP Logan Henderson to the mound against the Mets for Wednesday’s afternoon showdown. Henderson has been incredibly productive, registering a 3.26 xFIP and a 2.91 xERA across 33.1 innings since joining the rotation. The right-hander has yielded 1 or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts.

Meanwhile, the Mets have proven to be a mixed bag to begin the second half. However, New York did blank Milwaukee on Tuesday evening and was powered by solo home runs from 1B Jared Young and OF Luis Robert Jr.

SP Christian Scott will toe the rubber for the Mets in Wednesday’s series finale. Scott has also been relatively successful lately, as he hasn’t allowed an earned run in each of his last two starts.

The Brewers’ lineup has been one of the more dangerous groups in all of baseball. According to FanGraphs, Milwaukee ranks ninth in the majors in wRC+ (103), also racking up the fifth-most runs (510). 

Mets vs. Brewers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 22

The Brewers enter Wednesday's game as a home favorite against the Mets, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Mets vs. Brewers game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (2.38x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Mets 2.17x | Brewers 1.63x

Make your Mets vs. Brewers prediction on winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mets vs. Brewers Prediction on Over/Under – 7/22/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mets vs. Brewers prediction on the over/under for Wednesday, July 22.

• The under is 7-3 in the Mets’ last 10 games, including in Tuesday’s 4-0 win against the Brewers.
• The Mets rank 25th in the majors in runs (416) and have averaged just 3.6 per game in five contests since returning from the All-Star break.
• According to Baseball Savant, Henderson has held opposing batters to a .218 expected batting average (xBA), which ranks in the 77th percentile.
• Henderson has also allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts.
• Meanwhile, Scott has given up only 3 earned runs across his last three outings and has produced a 28.5% strikeout rate (87th percentile).
• Despite ranking fifth in runs, the Brewers have averaged 4.2 per game across five contests since the All-Star break. 
• According to Savant’s Park Factors, American Family Field has produced the fourth-fewest runs (94) since the start of the 2024 season.

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Mets vs. Brewers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/22/26

Here are the top Mets vs. Brewers picks to target on Wednesday, July 22. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Jackson Chourio and Francisco Alvarez.

Brewers OF Jackson Chourio vs. Mets: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Chourio has tallied at least 2 hits, runs, and RBI in four of his last seven contests.
• The Brewers’ outfielder has scored 8 runs over his last seven games.
• Chourio has recorded a 13.4% barrel rate, ranking in the 86th percentile.
• The third-year outfielder has also produced a 47.0% hard-hit rate (80th percentile).

Add Jackson Chourio to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mets C Francisco Alvarez vs. Brewers: 0.5 Total Bases 

• Alvarez is hitting .417 (5-for-12) in his last four games with 2 home runs, 2 RBI, and 3 runs.
• The Mets’ catcher has registered at least a hit in two of his last three contests, including a 2-home run performance against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 16.
• Alvarez has recorded a 16.0% barrel rate, which ranks in the 95th percentile.
• The veteran backstop has performed much better against right-handed pitching, producing a .262/.330/.463 slash line. Alvarez has also recorded 43 of his 56 total hits vs. righties on the year. 

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Make Mets vs. Brewers Picks on PrizePicks

It’s been no secret that the Mets' offense has struggled at times. Considering that Henderson has been thriving, runs could be at a premium in Wednesday’s afternoon tilt. 

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Mets vs. Brewers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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