Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, July 1

First pitch for the New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays game is set for 3:07 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 1, with the Mets entering as small road favorites and returning a 1.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

Today’s game is the rubber match for the first and only three-game series between these teams this season. The Blue Jays won a close one in game one, 2-1, before the Mets responded with a 3-0 win last night. Which one of these desperate teams will notch the series victory this afternoon?

Below, we'll break down our Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Mets vs. Blue Jays picks on PrizePicks now.

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Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 1

To say this has been a disappointing season for the Mets would somehow be a massive understatement. This was a team that came into the season with extremely lofty expectations, partly because they own the third-highest active payroll in the majors.

All they have done, though, is go 36-50 while currently sitting 14.5 games out of first place in the NL East.

Their -43 run differential is the worst in their division and the third-worst in the entire National League. Despite how much name talent is on the roster, something just isn’t clicking for the Queens-based franchise.

The Blue Jays' season has been perhaps even more disappointing, considering this team was a game away from winning the World Series just 9 months ago. They have the second-highest active payroll in the majors and yet they, too, have been dreadful, owning both a 40-46 record and a -35 run differential.

The Jays are currently 11 games out of first place in a highly competitive AL East. If they have any hopes of trimming that margin and making it into the playoffs, they'll have to get going in the last few months of the season.

Mets vs. Blue Jays Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 1

The Mets enter Wednesday’s game as small road favorites against the Blue Jays, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Mets vs. Blue Jays game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: New York Mets -1.5 (2.38x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Mets 1.85x | Blue Jays 1.88x

Play the Mets vs. Blue Jays spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction on Spread – 7/1/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction on the spread for Wednesday, July 1.

Lock in your Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction on PrizePicks now.

• Over the last 14 days, the Mets own the 16th-ranked offense by wRC+ (103), while the Blue Jays rank 26th with a wRC+ of 79.
• The Mets' offensive growth in recent weeks can be attributed to finally being healthy, with 3B Bo Bichette, LF Juan Soto, and SS Francisco Lindor playing together recently for the first time in over a month.
• This is projected to be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays given Braydon Fisher being on the mound, so it’s worth looking into how their pen has fared.
• In the last two weeks, the Blue Jays' bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball, ranking 27th in xFIP (4.94).
• On the other side of the diamond, the Mets' pen has come to life, ranking eighth in that same span with a 3.6 xFIP.

Mets vs. Blue Jays Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/1/26

Here are the top Mets vs. Blue Jays picks to target on Wednesday, July 1. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Freddy Peralta and George Springer.

Mets P Freddy Peralta vs. Blue Jays: 4.5 Strikeouts

• The Jays strike out just 20% of the time, the third-lowest rate in baseball. However, in the last two weeks, their K% is 22.7% (25.1% in the last week).
• Over the last seven days, their team's wRC+ is just 54, fifth-worst in the sport.
• Peralta owns a strong track record against the Blue Jays lineup, limiting them to just 3 hits over 31 at-bats with 8 strikeouts (25.8%).
• Peralta last pitched against the Blue Jays in Toronto last season, where he went 6 strong innings and held the offense to a lone hit while racking up 8 strikeouts.

Add Freddy Peralta to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Blue Jays OF George Springer vs. Mets: 0.5 Runs Scored

• This is a tough matchup for Springer against a pitcher he's struggled to hit in the past. He's 1-for-5 with no extra-base hits against Peralta.
• As his nickname suggests, “Fastball Freddie” relies almost entirely on that pitch to get outs. Springer this season has the lowest w/FB among all Blue Jay hitters (-6.0).
• Springer also owns a brutal -1.06 wFB/C and -1.81 wSF/C (Weighted Split-Fingered fastball runs above average per 100 pitches).
• Springer's strikeout rates over the last week (36%) and two weeks (28%) further drive home the point that he's struggling at the plate right now.

Add George Springer to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Mets vs. Blue Jays Picks on PrizePicks

This three-game series is the only meeting between the Mets and Blue Jays this season, and it’s fitting that it has come down to the rubber match. Who will be able to win the series this afternoon in Toronto?

Don’t wait until lock — make your Mets vs. Blue Jays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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