Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, August 12

First pitch in the matchup between the Seattle Mariners (56-64) and the New York Yankees (67-52) is set for 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 12, with the Yankees favored and returning a 1.72x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

The first game of this series on Tuesday featured a pitchers' duel between Yankees SP Ryan Weathers and Mariners SP Bryan Woo. The game remained scoreless until the sixth, when Mariners LF Randy Arozarena hit a solo home run.

The Yankees responded with 4 runs in the seventh on 2-RBI singles from 3B Ryan McMahon and CF Trent Grisham. That was enough for a 4-1 victory by New York, giving Seattle its fifth consecutive loss.

Tonight, the Yankees will have a chance to win their fifth series in their last seven, while the Mariners could lose their third straight set.

Below, we'll break down our Mariners vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Mariners vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, August 12

The Mariners will start Bryce Miller (3.60 xFIP in 79.0 IP, 14 appearances, 13 starts) in Wednesday night's matchup. Miller is part of a young group of starters the Mariners expect to anchor the rotation for years to come. After a breakout 2024 season with a 2.94 ERA, he struggled with a 5.68 ERA last year, though that may have been due to a problem with right elbow inflammation that forced him to miss more than two months. 

This season, he got off to a late start due to a left oblique injury but returned to the mound in May and was among the league’s best starting pitchers. From May 13 to July 2, he led the league in hard-hit rate allowed (27.5%), ranked second in xERA (2.11), and sat third in xFIP (2.63).

He’s struggled since then, ceding a 35.2% hard-hit rate, a 3.93 xERA, and a 5.53 xFIP. It’s not just Miller; the Mariners as a whole are falling short. Since July 21, they've gone 5-12. The good news is they're still in contention in the American League West race (4.5 games out) and the AL Wild Card hunt (four games out).

With that said, Seattle may not be built for a run in October. The pitching staff is great, but the offense hasn't done its part. A prime example is C Cal Raleigh, who was second in AL MVP voting last year after hitting 60 home runs. This year, he has a .161 BA, 12 home runs, and 43 RBI.

The Yankees will counter with Will Warren (3.71 xFIP in 114.0 IP, 23 appearances, 22 starts). When Warren is dialed in, he's a great pitcher with a fastball that can reach the mid-90s and a breaking ball with a ton of movement. His sinker has a 25.9-inch vertical drop — 2.5 inches more than the league average.

Unfortunately, Warren has had issues with consistency. He has 11 starts in which he’s gone at least 5 innings and allowed 2 or fewer earned runs, but four of 5+ earned runs, including two in his last 5 starts.

The Yankees as a whole are also struggling to play well consistently. On June 24, they had an AL-best 48-32 record and were three games ahead in the AL East. Since then, they’ve gone 18-21 and have fallen to six games out of first. They hold the first Wild Card spot, but with the Red Sox winning 32 of their last 40 games, they're moving up the standings and are now only three games behind.

Injuries have been a huge issue. New York is hoping RF Aaron Judge and DH Giancarlo Stanton can get back in the lineup at some point to boost the offense. The good news is LF Cody Bellinger and SP Carlos Rodon could return soon.

Mariners vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, August 12

The Yankees enter Wednesday’s game as home favorites against the Mariners, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Mariners vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

Play the Mariners vs. Yankees spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction on Over/Under – 8/12/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mariners vs. Yankees prediction on the run total for Wednesday, August 12.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Miller has been much worse on the road with a 4.02 ERA compared to a 2.09 ERA at home.
• The Mariners’ bats have improved recently, boasting a .406 xSLG since July 28, which ranks ninth in the league. This could benefit Seattle against Warren, who is allowing a .425 xSLG, higher than the league average of .407.
• The Yankees are the best at getting the ball on the sweet part of the bat, with their 9.7% barrel rate leading the league.
• The Mariners’ 38.1% hard-hit rate sits just 19th, but Warren is allowing a 42.4% hard-hit rate, which is only in the 21st percentile.
• In his only start at Yankee Stadium, Miller allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers over 6 innings.

Lock in your Mariners vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks now.

Mariners vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 8/12/26

Here are the top Mariners vs. Yankees picks to target on Wednesday, August 12. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Josh Naylor and George Lombard Jr.

Mariners 1B Josh Naylor vs. Yankees: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Naylor has been one of the Mariners' best hitters recently, ranking 25th with a .401 wOBA and 27th with a .298 xBA.
• He rarely swings and misses, with his 17.7% whiff rate sitting in the 84th percentile. Warren struggles, allowing a 22.3% whiff rate (27th percentile).
• Left-handed hitters have taken advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium against Warren to the tune of a 20.7% HR/FB rate. This could benefit the lefty Naylor.
• Warren throws a four-seamer 39% of the time to lefties, the highest rate of any pitch. Naylor does very well against the offering, owning a .366 wOBA and a .465 xSLG.

Add Josh Naylor to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Yankees SS George Lombard Jr. vs. Mariners: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• The Yankees’ No. 1 prospect has had an amazing start to his career, including the fourth-highest WAR in the league (0.4) since his MLB debut on August 4.
• Lombard Jr.’s 16.7% barrel percentage ranks 20th. That could fare well against Miller’s 6.7% barrel rate allowed, which ranks in the 64th percentile.
• While Miller is one of the better pitchers at getting hitters to swing outside the strike zone (36.2% chase rate, 94th percentile), Lombard Jr.’s 25.5% chase rate is lower than the league average (28.1%).

Add George Lombard Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Mariners vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

The Yankees got a late spark with a 4-run seventh to take the first game of this series. The Mariners will try to snap their five-game losing streak with Miller on the mound, but he's lost his last four decisions.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Mariners vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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