Two teams in the middle of the Sun Belt standings meet tonight as the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (4-6) visit the Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-5).
Louisiana bounced back from a three-game skid to pull off consecutive victories over South Alabama and Texas State.
Arkansas State saw its four-game winning streak disappear in a 27-21 home loss to a surprising Southern Miss squad last Saturday.
Let’s dive into this Louisiana vs. Arkansas State prediction for Thursday’s battle, kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Use PrizePicks CFB to win real-money rewards if your picks are right.
Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Thursday CFB Picks
- Louisiana outlasted Marshall in the Sun Belt opener, 54-51 in double-overtime on September 27. In the next three games, the Cajuns scored a combined 47 points and went 0-3.
- UL has come back to life recently winning at South Alabama, 31-22, followed by a 42-39 home triumph over Texas State on November 8.
- In the victory against Texas State, the Cajuns scored 28 second-quarter points and 14 combined points in the other three quarters.
- Arkansas State has gone through a roller-coaster ride in 2025, going 0-4 in September before posting four consecutive victories.
- During the four-game hot streak, the Red Wolves defeated one team with a winning record. Arkansas State jumped out to a 17-0 lead and knocked off Troy, 23-10 on November 1.
- Following the Troy win, the Red Wolves couldn’t keep their winning streak going in a 27-21 setback to Southern Miss to fall to 4-2 in Sun Belt action.
- The Cajuns finished tied with Marshall at 7-1 in league play in 2024, but UL has slipped to 3-3 in the Sun Belt in 2025.
- Last season, Louisiana trampled Arkansas State, 55-19, marking the sixth victory in the previous seven matchups.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
- Louisiana ranks near the bottom in the country in net EPA/play at 128th.
- The Cajuns have fared better in rushing metrics, sitting 52nd in EPA/rush, compared to 128th in EPA/pass.
- From a defensive success perspective, UL is 120th overall, while ranking 121st in defensive EPA/rush.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
- The Red Wolves are 55th in offensive success rate, a nice jump from 75th last season.
- Arkansas State averages the third-most plays a game nationally at 76, compared to Louisiana at 61 plays.
- The Red Wolves have allowed more than 30 points in five games, including the recent win over Texas State. In the four previous instances after giving up this amount of points, Arkansas State has yielded 34, 51, 24, and 22 points.
Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Thursday CFB Picks
Below are the top CFB DFS picks for Thursday night’s battle between Louisiana and Arkansas State.
Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor Projection: 258.5 Passing Yards
- The junior is fresh off his highest yardage output against an FBS school this season, throwing for 331 yards against Southern Miss.
- Prior to that outburst on November 8, Raynor was limited to 248 passing yards in each of the previous four games.
- Raynor has posted at least 260 passing yards in three games this season, including the opener against FCS squad Southeast Missouri State and UL-Monroe.
- In three of the last four games, Louisiana has limited opposing starting quarterbacks to 237 or fewer passing yards.
Louisiana QB Lunch Winfield Projection: 176.5 Passing Yards
- Winfield led Louisiana’s comeback against Marshall on September 27, capping it off with a game-winning TD run in double-overtime of a 54-51 triumph.
- In each of the past three games, the sophomore has eclipsed 187 passing yards. He finished 14-of-15 for 232 yards in a 31-22 victory over South Alabama on November 1.
- The duel-threat QB has rushed for at least 40 yards in five games, including two games of more than 129 yards on the ground.
- In four of six conference games, Arkansas State has yielded at least 180 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Arkansas State WR Chauncy Cobb Projection: 62.5 Receiving Yards
- Cobb ranks third in the Sun Belt with 63 receptions, but amazingly does not have a single TD in 2025.
- In three conference games, Cobb has eclipsed 68 receiving yards, highlighted by a season-high 126 yards against UL-Monroe on September 27.
- Cobb hauled in 7 receptions against Southern Miss two weeks ago, but managed only 26 yards. In another strange twist, the sophomore picked up 53 yards on 4 catches against Troy, which included a 51-yard reception.
- In four of the past five games, Louisiana has allowed an opposing receiver to rack up at least 100 yards.
Louisiana and Arkansas State are looking for strong finishes to their season in what should be an exciting Sun Belt matchup in Jonesboro tonight.
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