The SEC is a gift that keeps on giving, blessing college football fans with four top-25 matchups on Saturday, November 7. A pair of rivalries should have extra punch, including #6 Kentucky (7-1) vs. #13 Tennessee (6-2).
Two top-11 battles kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET likely shifted Kentucky vs. Tennessee into tonight’s 6:15 p.m. ET slot on ESPN. According to PrizePicks, the Volunteers are expected to ride their home advantage as 6.5-point favorites on the spread.
Let’s look at the stakes of this matchup, followed by a Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction and picks for player projections on PrizePicks.
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#6 Kentucky vs. #13 Tennessee Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for CFB Week 10 – Saturday, November 7
Tennessee is a 6.5-point favorite for the spread, paired with a 1.42x payout to win on PrizePicks — or a $142 payout on a $100 entry if you’re right.
Here are the full payouts for Kentucky vs. Tennessee, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!
Kentucky vs. Tennessee has quickly turned into perhaps the best SEC rivalry in college basketball, and now that can translate to the football field with the Wildcats finally relevant. UK is 7-1 for the first time since 2018.
In this season’s first College Football Playoff Rankings, the #6 Cats secured their highest ever CFP ranking. Meanwhile, Tennessee placed #13, proving the two-loss Volunteers are firmly in must-win territory.
According to PrizePicks, Kentucky is still viewed as unlikely to make the CFP, with a 2.43x payout for “Yes” and 1.47x for “No.” Tennessee is around the same vicinity, carrying a 2.85x payout to make the playoffs.
Both teams can thank a loaded SEC. The Wildcats have #13 Tennessee, #24 Florida, and #18 Missouri over the next three. The Vols still have to battle #14 LSU as well.
Whoever can secure a win on Saturday night should see a huge boost to their chances of earning a playoff berth, and it’s Kentucky once again in the underdog role for the fourth time over its last five. Big Blue has won three straight as underdogs and rolled to a 34-17 win over Vanderbilt on October 24.
Following a massive 26-10 win over #5 Alabama on October 17, Tennessee fell 27-24 on the road as 2.5-point underdogs vs. South Carolina two weeks ago.
Each team is coming off a bye, so the injury report is relatively short. Kentucky’s linebacker corps remains thin, as LBs Antwan Smith and Justyn Hartley are out, while LB Alex Afari Jr. remains ineligible. Cats EDGE Sam Greene is expected to return after missing last game, and RB CJ Baxter is available after quickly exiting last game due to injury.
Tennessee OG Wendell Moe Jr. and TE Ethan Davis are out, but the Vols have been operating without the two since Week 5.
It’s time to break down the matchup in our Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction.
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Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction on Spread for CFB Week 10 – 11/7/26
If Kentucky can pull off another upset — something it's done four times in 2026 — this would be perhaps its best win yet. The Wildcats’ season is highlighted by a 35-34 overtime win vs. #14 LSU, but they had the home advantage.
Neyland Stadium in a primetime spotlight will be UK’s toughest road environment of the season, and we can’t ignore a 1-19 record for the Cats in their last 20 games as a visitor vs. Tennessee.
The team that controls key downs, the turnover battle, and the lines of scrimmage have a great chance of emerging victorious.
According to Game on Paper, Kentucky ranks second out of 138 FBS teams in rush success rate, compared to 39th in the pass. Tennessee brings an even more drastic gap, residing sixth in rush success rate and 118th in the pass.
Further, the Wildcats produce 4.6 yards per carry (70th percentile) and 7.0 yards per passing attempt (39th percentile), compared to the Vols’ 4.5 (63rd percentile) and 6.4 (17th percentile).
Unlike UK, Tennessee is almost completely reliant on the run game, seen by a 60.52% rush play rate (91st percentile). Volunteers RB DeSean Bishop’s 171 carries and 957 rushing yards sit sixth nationally.
Both run defenses are allowing only 3.7 yards per carry, and advanced metrics side with Kentucky’s run defense that allows 0.9 second-level yards per carry (79th percentile) and 0.8 open-field yards per attempt (76th percentile), per Fourth and Short.
Tennessee concedes an alarming 1.3 second-level yards per carry (sixth percentile) and a mediocre 2.9 line yards per attempt (45th percentile), which measures an offensive line’s ability to generate push. The Wildcats have one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, producing 3.3 line yards per carry (82nd percentile).
Advanced stats suggest Kentucky’s ability to win the run game is more trustworthy, and that paired with a higher quality passing game points to success. That could also ease concern around a putrid 33.33% third-down conversion rate (23rd percentile), and Tennessee’s offense has struggled at 35.71% as well (32nd percentile).
Both defenses are in the top 10 nationally in takeaways per game, and UK’s offense logs 0.6 turnovers per game (95th percentile) compared to Tennessee’s 1.3 (50th percentile).
The Vols’ significant home advantage in Neyland Stadium certainly deserves consideration, but the Wildcats are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) while Tennessee is 4-4 ATS and 1-2 in its last three.
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Kentucky vs. Tennessee Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 11/7/26
Today’s Kentucky vs. Tennessee picks are headlined by CJ Baxter and George MacIntyre on PrizePicks.
Kentucky RB CJ Baxter vs. Tennessee: 52.5 Rush Yards
- Staying on schedule will be a major key for Kentucky’s offense in this game. Tennessee has an 11.57% sack rate that ranks second nationally and a 22.7% havoc rate third across college football.
- That could mean leaning on the ground game, and RB CJ Baxter is expected to be available after taking only 4 snaps vs. Vanderbilt due to injury. In his last full appearance, Baxter racked up 19 carries for 123 rushing yards (6.5 YPC) vs. LSU), highlighted by a 77-yard scamper.
- According to Pro Football Focus, Baxter is capable of ripping off some big runs with 43.1% of his yards coming from breakaway attempts (15+ yards).
- As mentioned, Tennessee is in the bottom 10 nationally in second-level yards per rushing attempt allowed, and that contributes to a 1.02 big play rate allowed vs. the run (25th percentile).
- In his last four full appearances, Baxter surpassed this projection in three of four games, averaging 101.8 rushing yards in the split.
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Tennessee QB George MacIntyre vs. Kentucky: 196.5 Pass Yards
- Kentucky allows a 45.6% pass success rate (32nd percentile), but the Vols don’t generate much confidence with a 38.2% pass success rate (14th percentile).
- While the Cats can be exposed against the pass, they limit teams to a 1.40 pass explosiveness rate (86th percentile), and that’s key against a Tennessee passing game with only 25.7 attempts per game (13th percentile).
- Since seizing the starting QB job, George MacIntyre has averaged 193.3 pass yards per game with a low 7.0 yards per passing attempt.
- Furthermore, Tennessee rarely allows MacIntyre to air it out with an extremely low 4.8 average depth of target (aDOT). He’s completed only 1 20+ yard passing attempt on the season.
- Tennessee gives up a 15.2% havoc rate (44th percentile), and the Wildcats have an 18.9% havoc rate on defense (85th percentile). Expect the Volunteers to keep it close to the chest as usual.
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Make Kentucky vs. Tennessee Picks on PrizePicks
In a season-shifting battle with CFP hopes on the line, Kentucky seeks to keep its underdog success alive in a hostile environment in Neyland Stadium. Tennessee already knocked off one top-10 team at home (Alabama); will the Vols do it again?
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Kentucky vs. Tennessee picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.
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