After taking care of business against teenage phenom Rafael Jodar in the quarterfinals, Alexander Zverev takes on another young up-and-comer in Jakub Mensik in the semifinals of the 2026 French Open.
With all the other top seeds knocked out of the draw, Zverev has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to win the French Open, which would be his first major title. However, there haven’t been many sure things in Paris this year, and Mensik has defeated three straight seeded opponents.
Below, we’ll break down our Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev prediction, recent form, and pick for the French Open semifinal, including a PrizePicks pick.
The match is the first men’s semifinal, which will begin at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, June 5. This year’s French Open is being covered on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max.
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Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction, Favorite for French Open Semifinals
Below are the payouts for who will win Friday’s Mensik vs. Zverev match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Jakub Mensik: 3.84x ($100 pays $370)
Alexander Zverev: 1.23x
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout means the result will return $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 35 states.
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction for the French Open Semifinal — Friday, June 5
Match Winner Payouts: Mensik 3.84x | Zverev 1.23x
Tournament Round: Semifinals
2026 Record Entering the French Open: Mensik 18-9 | Zverev 28-9
Head-to-Head Record: Zverev Leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: Friday, June 5, at 8:30 a.m. ET
How to Watch: TNT/HBO Max
Alexander Zverev hasn’t faced much adversity on his path to the semis, dropping only one set through five matches. This will be his 11th major semifinal and his fifth semifinal at the French Open. The German is a three-time Grand Slam finalist, which includes a runner-up finish at Roland Garros in 2024.
On the other hand, this is Jakub Mensik’s first major semifinal and also the first time he’s ever advanced past the fourth round at a Grand Slam. His run hasn’t been quite as smooth as Zverev’s, surviving five-setters in the second and fourth rounds.
Zverev has a strong clay-court resume, boasting a 182-66 record (73.4% win rate) and nine titles. At 20 years old, Mensik doesn’t have nearly the same credentials on the surface (15-11 and no titles).
At least on paper, Zverev could have a great chance of advancing to his fourth Grand Slam final.
Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings project an 85.3% win probability for Zverev.
Make your Mensik vs. Zverev prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev Pick for 2026 French Open Semifinal
Jakub Mensik — 17.5 Total Games Won
At this French Open, Zverev’s opponents have won 9, 8, 16, 10, and 10 total games. Quentin Halys is the only opponent who’s stolen a set off Zverev, but it still resulted in just 16 games won.
Zverev has been strong across the board at this event, winning 75% of his first-serve points, 68% of his second-serve points, and 44% of his return points. Mensik has done a good job winning on first serve (78%) and when receiving (42%), but he’s been vulnerable on his second serve (43%).
Zverev decidedly has the rest advantage. The German has spent 11 hours and 42 minutes on court compared to 15 hours and 44 minutes for Mensik, meaning the latter has spent just over four more hours on court. Cramping has been an issue for Mensik during the tournament, too, and he even had to pause due to discomfort in his most recent post-match presser.
The only previous meeting between these two came on clay in Madrid this year, and Zverev needed three sets to win the best-of-three matchup. However, Madrid is known for playing much faster due to its altitude, benefiting a big server like Mensik, who has a massive 14.6% ace rate across all surfaces in 2026.
That serve gets neutralized on the slower courts at Roland Garros, making him less likely to score free points off aces. He’s tallied 6, 11, 6, 13, and 11 aces here, and two of those double-digit performances came in five-setters.
Add Mensik or Zverev to your PrizePicks Lineup for the French Open.
Make Your French Open Predictions on PrizePicks
Alexander Zverev may not get a better chance in his career to win a Grand Slam title. Will he advance one step closer, or will Jakub Mensik pull off the upset?
Don’t wait until lock — make your French Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 35 states!
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