First pitch for the Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros game is set for 7:40 p.m. ET from Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday, July 24. The White Sox enter as a slight1.74x favorite to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Tonight’s matchup opens a key American League series between two playoff-chasing clubs, as the White Sox look to capitalize on their strong 31-17 home record while the Astros try to snap out of a middling 50-54 start to the season.
Astros RHP Spencer Arrighetti (7-5, 4.88 xFIP) and White Sox RHP Sean Burke (9-5, 3.76 xFIP) will take the mound in Friday night's game.
Below, we’ll break down our Astros vs. White Sox prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB game, including top player picks for PrizePicks on starting pitchers Spencer Arrighetti and Davis Martin.
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Astros vs. White Sox Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, July 24
The Astros are sitting at 50-54 and have been stuck in the middle of a crowded AL West where everyone is chasing the division‑leading Texas Rangers. The Astros taking the division is still a real possibility, currently only sitting two games back.
The White Sox are 54-47 and holding first place in the AL Central, staying just 1.5 games clear of the Cleveland Guardians. They're 7-3 in their last 10 games, while the Astros are just 4-6.
Chicago’s offense and pitching have finally synced up this year, and it shows in their improved overall run differential of +44. They've also controlled games at home, where they’ve posted one of the best home records in baseball at 31-17.
With Davis Martin on the mound, the Chicago White Sox look to not only have the home-field advantage, but also the pitching advantage in this matchup.
Astros vs. White Sox Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, July 24
The White Sox enter Friday's game as a favorite against the Astros, returning a 1.73x payout with a win, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Padres vs. Braves game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (1.73x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.76x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Astros 2.14x | White Sox 1.73x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Play the Astros vs. White Sox winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks!
Astros vs White Sox Prediction on Winner – 7/24/26
- Astros Spencer Arrighetti is just 4-11 in his MLB career when coming off a loss and facing a team above .500.
- Since the start of the 2025 MLB season, the Houston Astros are 24-8 against the run line (+1.5) when taking on a team above .500 on the road.
- Davis Martin owns a big home/road ERA split for the White Sox, posting a dominant 5-1 record at home with a 1.80 ERA compared to a 4-4 mark with a 4.43 ERA away from Guaranteed Rate Field.
- Spencer Arrighetti has been a different pitcher away from Houston this year, carrying a strong 3.05 ERA at home but a daunting 5.52 ERA on the road.
- At home this season, the Chicago White Sox are 20-9 when coming off a win, showing how well they can carry momentum off a win.
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Astros vs White Sox, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/24/26
Here are the top Astros vs. White Sox picks to target on Friday, July 24. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks include starting pitchers Spencer Arrighetti and Davis Martin.
Astros P Spencer Arrighetti – 2.5 Earned Runs
Across Spencer Arrighetti’s last 54 plate appearances against left-handed hitters, he has been getting demolished. Arrighetti is giving up a 17.2% barrel rate paired with a 58.6% hard‑hit rate and a hefty 31% fly‑ball rate.
His most recent outings have translated into 17 earned runs allowed over his last 13 innings pitched, pushing his ERA up to 4.34, while his expected ERA (xERA) has climbed even higher to 5.07.
This season, Arrighetti has leaned on a two‑pitch mix against left‑handed hitters, throwing his curveball about 30% of the time, which has generated a strong 43.5% whiff rate.
However, he pairs that with a fastball he throws roughly 31% of the time that has yielded an expected batting average (xBA) of .301 and only a 21% whiff rate, making it much more hittable when he falls behind in counts.
In addition, a lot of the damage has also come from his lack of command, as he has walked 17 batters over his last four starts, consistently putting extra runners on base and inflating potential big innings.
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White Sox P Davis Martin – 15.5 Pitcher Outs
White Sox starter Davis Martin has kept left‑handed hitters in check this year, allowing just a 6% barrel rate with a 56% hard‑hit rate but an impressively low 12.5% fly‑ball rate across his last 47 plate appearances.
That combination of limited barrels and minimal lift has helped Martin avoid the true blow‑up inning against lefties, which is important when facing the No. 1 lefty-hitter in the league in 2026 — Yordan Alvarez.
The trouble has shown up more against right‑handed hitters, where Martin has allowed a 10% barrel rate, a 47% hard‑hit rate, and a 27% fly‑ball rate across his last 35 plate appearances.
Despite the metrics, Martin has still held his own over his last 18 innings pitched, surrendering only 8 earned runs and striking out 13.
Martin also managed to handle the likes of Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Peña, and Christian Walker in the past to a combined (5‑for‑20), showing he can navigate dangerous right‑handed power.
A notable factor working against Martin could be his pitch count; he has not pitched over 90 pitches since June 10, including starts where he gave up only 0, 1, and 2 earned runs.
Given his ability to suppress damage against lefties, survive right‑handed power, and avoid massive innings over recent starts, Davis Martin looks to improve his home record to 6-1 on the season.
Add Davis Martin to your PrizePicks Lineup now
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Make Astros vs. White Sox Picks on PrizePicks
Two American League teams head into the first game of a new series on Friday night in Chicago. Astros vs. White Sox is just one of the games for you to get in on the MLB action on PrizePicks.
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