Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction, MLB Picks for ALDS Game 4 – Thursday, October 8

Game 4 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 8, at Rate Field in Chicago. For tonight's game on TBS and truTV, PrizePicks has the Guardians as the favorite with a 1.81x payout to win.

The White Sox are one win away from advancing to the ALCS with a 2-1 series lead. Cleveland kept its season alive with a 9-3 victory on Wednesday, setting up a critical Game 4 against a Chicago team that will have another opportunity to close out the series at home.

The Guardians will turn to SP Parker Messick, while the White Sox are expected to counter with a bullpen game that begins with opener RP Hagen Smith.

Below, we'll break down our Guardians vs. White Sox prediction and picks for Thursday's ALDS Game 4, including the winner, over/under, and player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your picks for Guardians vs. White Sox on PrizePicks now.

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Guardians vs. White Sox, Winner Payout, Over/Under for ALDS Game 4

The Guardians enter Game 4 as road favorites, returning a 1.81x payout if they win outright on PrizePicks — or an estimated $181 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Guardians vs. White Sox game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing is subject to change.

Make your Guardians vs. White Sox prediction on the winner on PrizePicks.

Parker Messick (3.37 xFIP) gets the ball for Cleveland in a must-win game after the Guardians finally broke through against Chicago's pitching staff in Game 3.

The left-hander has been one of Cleveland's most reliable starters all season. Messick owns a 9.32 K/9 rate and a 25.8% strikeout rate while limiting walks to just 2.37 BB/9.

He will look to improve on his Game 1 start, where he was inefficient, throwing 87 pitches over 4.1 innings and giving up 2 earned runs with 6 punchouts. 

The Guardians' bullpen was the story in Game 3, as Cleveland pitchers combined for 19 strikeouts in a historic performance.

Like offenses, bullpens can ride positive momentum, and that showing should carry into Game 4. With this being another must-win game for the Guardians, it will likely be all hands on deck once again.

Chicago will counter with RP Hagen Smith (2.86 xFIP), who is expected to open after the White Sox used multiple pitchers (including Smith) in Wednesday's loss. The left-hander has been tremendous all season for the White Sox and will look to build on his Game 1 appearance, where he also opened, went 2.2 innings, allowed 0 runs, and struck out 4.

Limiting free passes and avoiding extended at-bats will be essential if Chicago hopes to close out the series. The White Sox surrendered 10 walks in Wednesday's defeat, something they simply cannot do if they want to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2005.

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Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction on Winner for ALDS Game 4 Tonight

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Guardians vs. White Sox prediction on the winner for Thursday's ALDS Game 4.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from FanGraphs or Baseball Savant.

• Playoff baseball often comes down to pitching, and the Guardians' pitching situation could be much more trustworthy than the White Sox.
• Messick has been excellent all season, and in his four regular-season appearances against Chicago, he finished with an xFIP above 3.18 only once.
• On the flip side, this will be Hagen Smith's third time pitching in this series, and fatigue may be catching up as he walked 3 batters in his first appearance and 2 more in his Game 3 appearance on Wednesday.
• The Guardians are coming off their best offensive performance of the series. Cleveland scored 9 runs in Game 3 against yet another White Sox bullpen game, meaning it will likely see many of the same arms it had success against yesterday.
• Cleveland leads all postseason teams by a mile in BB%, walking 15.7% of the time. This patient approach can absolutely wear out a pitching staff as the series progresses, and we saw that yesterday when the Sox pen walked 10 Guardians. 
• Cleveland’s pen has also been lights out in the playoffs, owning the second-lowest xFIP (2.69) compared to the White Sox pen's 4.08 xFIP.

Lock in your Guardians vs. White Sox prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Guardians vs. White Sox Picks, Player Stats for ALDS Game 4 – Thursday, Oct. 8

Here are the top Guardians vs. White Sox picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday's ALDS Game 4. Today's MLB picks include Parker Messick and Munetaka Murakami.

Guardians SP Parker Messick vs. White Sox: 6 Strikeouts

• This is a great spot for Messick against a White Sox team that strikes out 33.2% of the time this postseason, the highest strikeout rate among all playoff teams.
• Messick picked up 6 strikeouts in his Game 1 appearance, which were all in the first three innings. With a little more efficiency, he can clear that number even with what could be a quick hook in a must-win game for Cleveland.
• The Guardians lefty faced the White Sox four times in the regular season, striking out 8, 8, 3, and 10 batters, clearing this projection 75% of the time.
• The current White Sox roster has struck out 34 times in 107 at-bats against Messick in his career, good for an absurd 31.7% strikeout rate.
• Chicago has struck out slightly more against lefties this season, with a 24.4% strikeout rate compared to 24.1% vs. righties.

Add Parker Messick to your PrizePicks lineup now.

White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami vs. Guardians: 0.5 Total Bases

• Murakami has already shown he can do serious damage against Parker Messick, as seen in Game 1 when he hit a 440-foot, 2-run home run off the lefty.
• For his career, Murakami is 3 for 6 off Messick with 2 long balls.
• Messick, largely because of his nasty changeup, has been a reverse-splits pitcher in his career. He has a higher HR/9 and xFIP against lefties than righties, as well as a lower K/9.
• Messick also posted a .689 opponent OPS against lefties, compared with a .599 OPS against righties during the regular season.
• All it takes is 1 measly single to clear this projection. Murakami has collected at least 1 hit in two of three games in this series (66.7%), three of five games in the playoffs (60.0%), and in five of his last six games to close out the regular season (83.3%).

Add Munetaka Murakami to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Guardians vs. White Sox Picks on PrizePicks

The momentum has swung back to Cleveland after a crucial 9-3 win in Game 3.

The Guardians enter this one with a hot offense, a more rested pitching staff, and a clear pitching plan. The White Sox counter with what should be a raucous home-field advantage and a home-run-driven lineup, which can be key in these typically low-scoring playoff games.

Don't wait until the first pitch — make your Guardians vs. White Sox picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right.

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