Giants vs. Red Sox Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, August 23

The San Francisco Giants (52-77) vs. the Boston Red Sox (70-59) is set for 3:15 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 23, with the Red Sox returning a 1.4x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball, going from a non-contender to a potential threat in October. The Giants are a long way from contention, and they'll likely miss the playoffs for the fifth straight season.

On Saturday, the Red Sox’s offense was stagnant, going scoreless for the first eight innings. However, the bats came alive in the ninth, and the Red Sox scored 3 runs for the walk-off 3-2 win. 

Below, we'll break down our Giants vs. Red Sox prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Giants vs. Red Sox prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Giants vs. Red Sox Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, August 23

The Giants will feature SP Matt Wilkinson (6.87 xFIP in 2.0 IP, 1 start) in Sunday’s series finale. Wilkinson was already well known before he ever stepped onto an MLB mound. “Tugboat” made a name for himself at the 2015 Little League World Series by striking out 16 batters in a game. 

Wilkinson doesn’t have the same strikeout ability anymore; he isn’t an overpowering pitcher, as his fastball topped out at 91 mph in his MLB debut, but he does a great job of keeping the ball off the barrel and inducing weak contact.

Giants general manager Buster Posey took a big risk hiring Tony Vitello as manager, someone with no MLB experience as a player or coach. Vitello’s first year has not gone well, with the Giants having the second-worst record in the National League and only two fewer losses than the Rockies. 

As a result, the Giants were sellers at the trade deadline, trading away players such as SP Robbie Ray and 2B Luis Arraez.

The Red Sox will counter with SP Jake Bennett (4.42 xFIP in 14 IP, 10 starts) in Sunday’s matinee. The Red Sox are excited about this lefty, and he’s excelling this season with a 3.20 xERA.

His biggest strength is mixing his four-seamer and changeup to keep hitters unbalanced, especially with his changeup falling out of the strike zone just as it’s approaching the plate. He’s hit a rough patch recently, posting a 7.71 ERA over his last two starts, but he might be the victim of bad luck, with a contrasting 4.39 xERA.

Rarely do we see a team turn its season around like the Red Sox. The season began on a brutal note, with Boston firing manager Joey Cora with a 9-19 record. New Red Sox manager Chad Tracy didn’t start well either. On July 1, the team was 37-48 and last in the American League East. 

Then, with the flip of a switch, everything changed. Boston went on to win 15 straight games, shifting its season trajectory. Since July 2, the Red Sox are an MLB-best 32-11 and hold a 6.5-game lead for the second AL Wild Card spot. Plus, Boston is only 6.0 games behind the Rays for first place in the AL East.

Sometimes it isn’t the best team that wins the championship; it’s the hottest, and that could be the Red Sox. PrizePicks Team Picks has Boston tied for the fifth-shortest payout to win the World Series (11.11x).

Giants vs. Red Sox Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, August 23

The Red Sox enter Sunday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.4x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Giants vs. Red Sox game on PrizePicks.

Make your Giants vs. Red Sox prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money—available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Giants vs. Red Sox Prediction on Spread – 8/23/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Giants vs. Red Sox prediction on the run line for Sunday, August 23.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Bennett excels at inducing opposing hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone, with a 36.1% chase rate that ranks in the 95th percentile.
• The Giants have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 23rd in hard-hit rate (36.1%) and 28th in wOBA (.291). That could be an advantage for the left-handed Bennett.
• The Red Sox have excelled against left-handed pitching recently. Since July 3, they rank third in wOBA (.379) and fourth in xSLG (.425). That could be trouble for left-handed Wilkinson.
• Boston is right in the middle, as its 15.4% whiff rate ranks 15th in the league. Wilkinson did not record a swing-and-miss in his MLB debut.
• Bennett does well at controlling his pitches, with his 5.3% walk rate ranking in the 94th percentile. That’s bad news for the Giants, who have the worst walk rate in baseball (7.1%).

Lock in your Giants vs. Red Sox prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Giants vs. Red Sox Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/23/26

Here are the top Giants vs. Red Sox picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, August 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Jung Hoo Lee and Willson Contreras.

Giants RF Jung Hoo Lee vs. Red Sox: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• After a strong start, Lee has struggled in the second half of the season. From the start of the year through June 10, he had a .363 wOBA and a .319 xBA. Since then, he has had a .295 wOBA and a .251 xBA.
• Lee tends to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, and his 31.8% chase rate places him in the 38th percentile. That could be a challenge against Bennett, whose 36.1% chase rate places him in the 95th percentile.
• Lee has performed worse against left-handed pitchers, proven by a .307 wOBA and 21.1% hard-hit rate compared to .342 and 23.2% against righties.
• Bennett's sinker has a 43.0% usage rate vs. left-handed hitters—the highest rate among all his pitches. Lee has struggled against the sinker, posting a .293 wOBA, and his 14.8% putaway rate is the highest against any pitch.

Add Jung Hoo Lee to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras vs. Giants: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Contreras is having a banner year with career highs in barrel rate (14.2%) and wOBA (.400).
• He’s one of baseball’s hottest hitters, ranking 14th in wOBA (.475) since August 14.
• Contreras has better numbers against left-handed pitchers, including a .418 wOBA compared to .399 against righties.
• Wilkinson was successful at keeping the ball off opposing hitters’ barrels, but Contreras is among the best, with his 14.5% barrel rate ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Add Willson Contreras to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Giants vs. Red Sox Picks on PrizePicks

The Red Sox will go for the sweep, with this matchup featuring two young starters on the mound. The Red Sox rookie Bennett is having a stellar season, and the Giants’ Wilkinson looked great in his MLB debut. Which starter will help propel their team to a win?

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens—make your Giants vs. Red Sox picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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