The 2026 MLB season is fully underway, and the San Francisco Giants (1-3) are set to take on the San Diego Padres (1-3) on Tuesday at 9:40 p.m. ET.
The first matchup of the three-game series between the Giants and Padres was on Monday, with San Francisco coming away with a 3-2 victory to earn their first win of the campaign.
Below, we’ll break down our Giants vs. Padres prediction and picks for Tuesday’s matchup. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Giants vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under
For the second game of the West Coast series, Giants’ Logan Webb (2.78 xFIP in 2025) and Padres’ German Marquez (5.35 xFIP) are set to take the mound on Tuesday.
Despite Webb being tagged for 6 ER for his Opening Night start against the New York Yankees, his 2.75 xFIP and .529 BABIP suggest he could have gotten a bit unlucky. There could be better days ahead, as his consistency and ability to limit hard contact and keep the ball low have made him a trustworthy starter.
After spending the first 10 seasons of his career with the Colorado Rockies, Marquez now finally gets to take the bump in a home game away from Coors Field for the first time.
According to Baseball Savant, Coors Field is No. 1 in park factor, while Petco Park is No. 22 in park factor across the last three seasons, so that’s quite the change of scenery.
Giants vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under
The Padres enter Tuesday’s game as home underdogs, returning a 2.17x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Giants are road favorites with a 1.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Giants -1.5 (2.22x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 Runs (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Padres 2.17x | Giants 1.69x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Giants vs. Padres Prediction on Over/Under – 3/31/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Giants vs. Padres prediction on the over/under for Tuesday, March 31, on PrizePicks.
- Over the last nine head-to-head meetings between San Francisco and San Diego, there have been fewer than 8 total runs scored in six of them.
- Before the 2026 season, Webb put together five straight years with a 3.31 xFIP or better and 0.83 HR/9 or better, per FanGraphs.
- Neither the Giants nor the Padres have produced more than 3 runs in a game to begin the season.
- Last season, San Diego had the fifth-worst record to the over at home (34-44-3).
- San Francisco had the fourth-worst record to the over when playing as favorites (35-55-4) in 2025.
- While Webb is capable of pitching deep into games, the Padres have a strong bullpen to deploy behind Marquez. From August 1 (when RP Mason Miller made his debut for San Diego) to the end of last season, the bullpen had the sixth-best xFIP (3.64), second-best WHIP (1.14), and highest strikeout rate (28.9%).
Giants vs. Padres Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/31/26
Here are the top Giants vs. Padres picks to target for Tuesday, March 31, on PrizePicks. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Giants 2B Luis Arraez and Padres CF Jackson Merrill.
Giants 2B Luis Arraez vs. Padres Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- What Arraez lacks in power, he makes up for by being a solid contact hitter. He ranks in the 96th percentile in xBA (.287) and 100th percentile in strikeout rate (3.1%) last season, per Baseball Savant.
- Besides getting to hit out of the leadoff spot, Arraez tallied a 113 wRC+, .326 wOBA, and 2.3% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers last year.
- Marquez registered worse metrics against lefties compared to righties in 2025, posting a 5.66 xFIP and 1.79 WHIP when facing left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, he had a 5.04 xFIP and 1.63 WHIP.
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Padres CF Jackson Merrill vs. Padres Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Even though Webb is a formidable starter, he notched a 2.87 xFIP and 1.34 WHIP against lefties last year compared to a 2.69 xFIP and 1.14 WHIP against righties.
- Merrill unsurprisingly had better numbers when facing right-handed pitchers in 2025 as a left-handed hitter, accruing a 135 wRC+, .359 wOBA, and .226 ISO in that split.
- It’s still early in the season, but Merrill is one of just four players on the Padres who has an extra-base hit, with a HR in the bottom of the ninth inning on Monday.
Make Giants vs. Padres Picks on PrizePicks
It’s been quite a slow start to the season for both the Giants and Padres. Can either NL West squad get some momentum going on Tuesday?
You can make your Giants vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
