A historic combat sports event goes down on Netflix this weekend as Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions (MVP) kicks off its maiden voyage into mixed martial arts.
Famous MMA stars of the past, present, and future will take to the world’s largest streaming platform to bottle the elite production quality that Paul’s boxing events have produced and translate them to a cage.
Former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou is on Saturday night’s main card in Inglewood. He’ll battle another former UFC roster member in Brazil’s Philipe Lins. Don’t blink when these power punchers square off in a five-round bout.
Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins is expected to start around 10:30 p.m. ET on Netflix, depending on when the other main card fights conclude. Below, we'll make a Ngannou vs. Lins prediction for Netflix MVP MMA 1, including picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Netflx MVP MMA picks on winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks
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Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins Prediction, Preview for Netflix MVP MMA 1 Main Card Fight
Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry.
Francis Ngannou: 1.08x to win; 1.14x to win by KO/TKO/DQ (4.76x No)
Philipe Lins: 6.66x to win; 22.22x to win by submission
Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.
Any fight involving “The Predator” feels like a big one.
Cameroon’s Francis Ngannou never lost his UFC belt inside the octagon. In 2022, a disagreement with Dana White led to his superstar free agency. Ngannou went on to fight two massive boxing bouts against Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua before signing with the Professional Fighters League (PFL), where he went 1-0 after a first-round stoppage of Renan Ferreira.
Many still consider the 39-year-old the best heavyweight on the planet to this day. Anyone who wants to challenge Ngannou will likely have to come to Paul’s MVP promotion now, though. First up will be Philipe Lins, a fellow UFC alum.
Lins was working his way toward a light heavyweight title opportunity, ending his UFC stint at 205 pounds with a four-fight winning streak. His wrestling-heavy approach just wasn’t always seen as exciting, so the promotion didn’t renew his contract. Still, the Brazilian produced a highlight or two in his tenure.
Anything can happen when you lock the cage between two guys with a combined 21 career knockouts. Who will land the seminal blow here?
How Francis Ngannou Wins vs. Philipe Lins at Netflix MVP MMA 1
Francis Ngannou’s primary strategy early in his career was to land the right hand. That rarely failed him against lesser competition or smaller foes. It’s something we’ve also seen bite Lins at times.
However, Ngannou’s evolution with Eric Nicksick and a great team at Xtreme Couture can’t be understated. He’s landed six combined takedowns in his last three fights, giving him an alternate path to inflict damage with his massive frame.
Lastly, the Cameroonian just needs to mind his energy early and not go bananas trying to produce a highlight. Lins is significantly less accomplished than the two former title challengers that represent Francis’ two pro losses, so if he exercises patience, you have to like his chances.
How Philipe Lins Wins vs. Francis Ngannou at Netflix MVP MMA 1
We saw in an MMA fight last weekend between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland that things can change quickly in deep water. This is a five-round fight, and Lins would take it to the bank if you told him all 25 minutes happened in this one.
As the former light heavyweight, Lins likely is trading size for skill, speed, and better endurance. He’s hoping to outpoint and produce combinations on the larger, more stationary target later in this fight.
It goes without saying that Lins’ defense needs to be perfect early. Ngannou’s reputation for putting fighters to sleep with one shot is too dangerous to test.
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Ngannou vs. Lins Prediction for Netflix MVP MMA 1 Main Card
I’m not shy about calling upsets, but there’s probably a reason Lins dropped to 205 pounds in UFC after an 0-2 start at heavyweight.
At just 6’2”, Lins gives up a ton of mass to these larger fighters, and that creates many problems. It shuts down his offensive wrestling, puts his chin at risk, and at 40 could cause him to wear down more than usual compared to his natural division.
It’ll be a great challenge for MVP MMA to find high-level heavyweights for Ngannou to battle, and this first matchup is a tough sell.
As with several of the fighters on Saturday’s card, there are inherent risks of Ngannou’s lack of MMA activity in the last few years as a massive favorite. Maybe he’s a shell of himself, but Lins hasn’t competed since March 2024. It’s tough to find an angle or edge for the Brazilian when he peaked at such a low level of UFC in a lighter weight class.
Make your Ngannou vs. Lins Picks on PrizePicks for Netflix MVP MMA 1
Make Your Ngannou vs. Lins Picks on PrizePicks
MVP MMA 1’s main event goes down this Saturday from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. Before the fight gets underway on Netflix, lock in your MMA predictions for the fight.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections for Ngannou vs. Lins, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
You can also predict MMA fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
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