For the second straight week, the Florida Gators and Missouri Tigers face top-25 opponents, but this time it’s each other in a big-time conference matchup in Columbia, Mo. at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The two schools, who met every year as SEC East rivals from 2012 to 2023, square off with #25 Missouri leading the all-time series 7-6. The #8 Gators enter as a 5.5-point favorite on the spread, returning a 1.4x payout with a road win via PrizePicks.
Last week, Florida blew out #4 Ole Miss 52-28 in Gainesville to improve to 2-0 in the SEC, while Missouri lost at Mississippi State 31-24 for its first defeat of the season.
Below, we’ll break down our Florida vs. Missouri prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the game winner, spread, and over/under for PrizePicks.
Make your Florida vs. Missouri picks on PrizePicks for Saturday’s game.
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#8 Florida vs. #25 Missouri Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 3
Florida has scored 44+ points in all four games this season, the first time since the 2008 championship team in which Florida has scored 40+ in four straight outings. Florida’s 53.8 PPG average is second in the nation, only trailing rival Georgia (54.8).
The Gators, under former Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, are averaging 532.8 yards per game, fifth-best in the nation, reaching 495+ each time out.
Florida's offense has done it both in the air and on the ground. Georgia Tech transfer QB Aaron Philo has thrown for 917 yards, 7 TDs and 2 INTs, and the ground game had over 300 yards vs. Ole Miss and is 11th in the nation at 260.0 YPG.
SEC Player of the Month and Heisman candidate RB Jadan Baugh leads the nation in TDs (11), rushing first downs (29), and has the highest Pro Football Focus rushing grade at 92.6.
He forced 4 missed tackles by Ole Miss and leads the country with 34 on the year. His 11 TDs are the most by an SEC player through four games since conference expansion in 1992.
Missouri took a 3-0 record and a 7-point lead into the fourth quarter last week before falling in Starkville. The Tigers are allowing just 2.8 yards per rush (19th in the nation), setting up for a strength-on-strength matchup vs. Baugh.
On the flip side, the Tigers are 126th nationally in explosiveness allowed (1.41), per College Football Ratings, which could pose a problem against a Gators offense that is 16th in run explosiveness and 37th overall.
On the offensive side, Missouri is led by Ole Miss transfer QB Austin Simmons. Missouri is at 0.459 EPA/dropback (23rd) and has a 2.2% sack rate — second-best in the SEC.
Florida vs. Missouri Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 3
Florida enters Saturday’s game as a 5.5-point road favorite vs. Missouri, returning a 1.4x payout if it wins outright, according to PrizePicks.
Play the Florida vs. Missouri spread or over/under on PrizePicks!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Florida vs. Missouri Prediction on Over/Under – 10/3/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Florida vs. Missouri prediction on the over/under for Saturday, October 3.
- The change in offense at Florida has been stark, with Florida improving from 102nd in the country last season in YPG to top five this season under Faulkner.
- The Gators have scored 50+ points in three of their first four games for the first time since Steve Spurrier’s 1996 squad did so on the way to the school’s first national title.
- Florida is a TD away from matching last season's total of 29 and is second in FBS at 0.730 points per play. The Gators averaged 0.290 last season.
- Through four games in 2026, per Fourth Down Data, Florida is in the 99th percentile in offensive EPA/play (+0.321), opponent-adjusted offense, and points per drive (4.85), as well as the 96th percentile in offensive success rate (56.2%).
- The same can’t be said about the UF defense, which is in the 18th percentile in opponent-adjusted defense and defensive EPA/play (+0.088), in addition to the ninth percentile in third-down defense.
- Missouri allowed 514 yards, including 360 in the air, and 6.44 yards per play to Mississippi State last week. All were season highs.
- The Tigers were 8-4 during the regular season last year but 0-4 vs. top-10 teams, allowing 27, 17, 39, and 17 points in the four losses.
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Florida vs. Missouri Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/3/26
Here are the top Florida vs. Missouri picks to target on Saturday, October 3. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB Jadan Baugh and QB Austin Simmons.
Florida RB Jadan Baugh vs. Missouri: 114.5 Rush yards
- Baugh leads the country with 11 rushing TDs, a pair more than any other player. His 600 rushing yards rank second nationally and lead the SEC.
- Baugh also leads the SEC in YPG (150.0), YPC (7.2), and all-purpose yards (154.5).
- Per Game on Paper, Baugh’s 22.65 EPA vs. FBS teams is fourth in the country.
- Baugh became the fastest Gator to 10 rushing TDs in a season, topping Tim Tebow in 2007. Tebow set the Florida record with 23 rushing scores that season.
Add Jadan Baugh + Florida to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Missouri QB Austin Simmons vs. Florida: 246.5 Pass Yards
- Simmons is second in the SEC with 12 passing TDs and fifth in both passing yards (947) and passing efficiency (174.1).
- The Ole Miss transfer has thrown for 250+ yards in three of four games this season and in one of the two games he started for the Rebels in 2025 before an injury.
- Simmons has yet to throw an INT, making him one of only two SEC starting QBs who can claim that.
- He's averaging +0.47 EPA/dropback this season, 23rd out of 128 qualifying FBS QBs.
Add Austin Simmons + Missouri to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Can Florida continue its offensive onslaught and improve to 3-0 in the SEC, or will Missouri rebound from last week’s loss to Mississippi State by upsetting the Gators?
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Florida vs. Missouri picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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