Florida and Miami — two in-state, non-conference rivals — face off in a Week 4 game with state and national bragging rights on the line in a battle at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida on Saturday, Sept. 20, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami QB Carson Beck looks to continue his resurgence in Miami and his Heisman push after throwing for 340 yards and accounting for 4 TDs in the win vs. South Florida last week.
On the other side, Florida QB DJ Lagway hopes to keep Florida’s season alive after back-to-back losses, despite putting up a season-best 287 pass yards vs. LSU last week.
We'll give you our Florida vs. Miami prediction and CFB picks for Week 4 below, including Lagway and Beck player picks for PrizePicks real money college football game.
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Florida vs. Miami Prediction, Preview, CFB Picks for 9/20
Florida (1-2) and Miami (3-0) — teams headed in opposite directions in 2025 — meet up for the second straight season, but only the fourth time in the last 12 years.
Miami won last year in the Swamp in Gainesville, 41-17, behind Cam Ward’s 385 passing yards and 4 TDs.
Miami leads the all-time series between the two in-state rivals, 30-27, and have won eight of the last 10 in the series over the last 40 years.
The spotlight will be on both QBs as Florida sophomore DJ Lagway is coming off a 5 INT game at LSU and Miami QB Carson Beck is near the top of most Heisman lists in his first season since leaving Georgia.
Florida Gators Preview
After opening the season with a 55-0 win over Long Island, Florida lost at home on a walk-off FG to South Florida and then 20-10 last week at 3rd-ranked LSU, putting head coach Billy Napier firmly back on the hot seat.
This is the second of four straight games against a team ranked in the top 10 as the 1-2 Gators lost to 3rd-ranked LSU last week, face 4th-ranked Miami this week on the road, are home to 8th-ranked Texas in two weeks after a bye, and then play 10th-ranked Texas A&M in College Station.
After throwing 3 TDs with 0 picks and completing 83.3% of his passes in one half against Long Island in the season opener, Florida QB DJ Lagway has thrown 2 TDs with 6 INTs in the losses to South Florida and LSU, including a career-high 5 last week.
Florida Gators Stats
Florida stats via Game on Paper.
- Offensive
- Adj. EPA/Play: 89th (-0.15)
- Yards/Dropback: 80th (6.93)
- Yards/Rush: 64th (5.21)
- Defensive
- Adj. EPA/Play: 28th (-0.12)
- Yards/Dropback: 99th (7.25)
- Yards/Rush: 10th (3.13)
Miami Hurricanes Preview
The Hurricanes, who just missed the College Football Playoff last season, are up to No. 4 in the AP Poll after a 37-point win over previously unbeaten and previously ranked South Florida.
Miami opened the season with a 3-point win over No. 6 Notre Dame and finish up non-conference play hosting Florida.
Heisman contender Carson Beck, a portal transfer from Georgia, has completed 79.3% of his passes with 7 TD and 1 INT on the season.
After Florida, Miami opens up ACC play in Tallahassee against in-state rival No. 7 Florida State before returning home to host Louisville.
Miami Hurricanes Stats
Miami stats via Game on Paper.
- Offensive
- Adj. EPA/Play: 21st (0.16)
- Yards/Dropback: 20th (9.15)
- Yards/Rush: 58th (5.35)
- Defensive
- Adj. EPA/Play: 36th (-0.10)
- Yards/Dropback: 77th (6.43)
- Yards/Rush: 14th (3.28)
Florida vs. Miami Picks for CFB DFS, PrizePicks
Here are three player picks to target in PrizePicks real money college football game and in CFB DFS, including Florida QB DJ Lagway and Miami QB Carson Beck.
Florida QB DJ Lagway Projection: 223.5 Passing Yards
DJ Lagway has completed 71.0% of his passes through three weeks with 629 passing yards (209.7 per week).
He has 5 passing TDs and 6 INTs, 5 of which came last week in the loss to LSU. His yards per attempt is at 6.3 for the season with one completion over 32 yards.
Despite holding USF to just 12 points last week, USF QB Byrum Brown threw for 274 yards — which was largely dictated by game flow. Notre Dame freshman QB CJ Carr threw for 221 yards vs. the Hurricanes.
Miami QB Carson Beck Projection: 272.5 Passing Yards
After winning two national titles as a backup to Stetson Bennett at Georgia, Beck was a 2-year starter for the Bulldogs, before transferring to Miami ahead of this season.
In three games, Beck is averaging 270.7 passing yards per game with 7 TDs in the air and another on the ground. In two games against Florida (as the Georgia QB), Beck averaged 312 passing yards per game with 4 TD and 3 INT.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. Projection: 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. has scored 2 rushing TDs in each of the last two games, rushing for 272 yards on 42 carries for an average of 6.5 yards per rush. Fletcher has averaged 14 carries per game over the first three games, including nine runs of 10+ yards, per PFF.
Last year against Florida, Fletcher Jr. had 2 rushing TDs on 7 carries.
Removing the Bethune-Cookman game, where Miami didn't even have to get off the bus, Fletcher leads the Hurricanes in RB snaps (35), yards per attempts (6.0), and yards after contact per attempt (4.16), per PFF.
Make Florida vs. Miami Picks on PrizePicks
Florida vs. Miami pits two long-time Sunshine State rivals in a Week 4 game on Saturday evening. Florida has lost the last two games, while Miami is up to No. 4 in the AP Poll and looking for a College Football Playoff berth.
The Hurricanes have won eight of the last 10 in the series, including a blowout win last year in Gainesville.
No matter what your take on this Saturday night matchup is, you can win real money with your Florida vs. Miami predictions on PrizePicks while you watch.
Simply pick your players — from DJ Lagway to Carson Beck, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and win cash when you're right. It's that easy.
Check out the Playbook throughout the 2025 college season for more college football picks and predictions from our team of experts
