F1 Predictions for United States Grand Prix, Winner Pick – Sunday, October 25

The Formula 1 United States Grand Prix starts Sunday, October 25, at 4:00 p.m. ET, live on Apple TV. The three F1 practices set up quite the event on Saturday evening, and qualifying produced some incredible results in Austin along with a few shockers.

Early United States Grand Prix predictions went by the wayside when Max Verstappen brought the heat in Q3. That qualifying position meant the world to Verstappen, and he looked poised to hold on.

Naturally, Kimi Antonelli snatched the pole position from Verstappen on what could only be described as borderline miraculous. Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris both struggled in Q3. Antonelli gaining a full second between Q1 and Q2 was ridiculous. Little did we know what would happen next.  

Could Sunday’s F1 United States Grand Prix produce a sunset surprise? Let’s roar into our F1 United States Grand Prix predictions for Sunday afternoon’s race, based on Saturday’s final practice and qualifying results. This includes the latest favorites to win, reach the podium, and more on PrizePicks.

Make F1 Predictions on PrizePicks — including on winner, podium, and driver stats

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F1 United States Grand Prix Predictions & Picks After Qualifying – Sunday, October 25

Antonelli was the favorite to take pole in the United States Grand Prix. So, when he made his share of early qualifying mistakes, that increased the chances of Max Verstappen or even George Russell taking pole.  

The Ferrari cars struggled out of the gate, with Leclerc and Hamilton qualifying fourth and fifth. Hamilton struggled to find pace, and it got worse for McLaren. Lando Norris will start eighth, 1.014 seconds off Antonelli’s top time.

Below is the F1 starting lineup for the United States Grand Prix, from 1st to 22nd. This should help in crafting those F1 predictions. Keep in mind that the Austin, Texas, course is 5.513 km and 20 turns long. There is room for many overtakes and mistakes with 56 laps of racing on Sunday.

F1 United States Grand Prix Starting Lineup for Sunday, October 25

Looking for longer shots from qualifying appears a little tougher with some pace anomalies. Hamilton and Norris will come into the race quite motivated. Max Verstappen wants to keep his faint championship hopes alive.

Here's how the starting lineup shakes out for the United States Grand Prix today.

1. Kimi Antonelli – Mercedes – 1:34.035
2. Max Verstappen – Red Bull – +0.179s
3. Isack Hadjar – Red Bull – +0.215s
4. Charles Leclerc – Ferrari – +0.232s
5. Lewis Hamilton – Ferrari – +0.276s
6. George Russell – Mercedes – +0.441s
7. Oscar Piastri – McLaren – +0.768s
8. Lando Norris – McLaren – +1.014s
9. Liam Lawson – Racing Bulls – No time in Q3
10. Pierre Gasly – Alpine – Eliminated in Q2
11. Nico Hulkenberg – Audi – Eliminated in Q2
12. Fernando Alonso – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q2
13. Oliver Bearman – Haas – Eliminated in Q2
14. Arvid Lundblad – Racing Bulls – +2.014s (five-spot grid penalty)
15. Esteban Ocon – Haas – Eliminated in Q1
16. Lance Stroll – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q1
17. Carolis Sainz – Williams – Eliminated in Q1
18. Alexander Albon – Williams – Eliminated in Q1
19. Sergio Perez – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q1
20. Valtteri Bottas – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q1
21. Franco Colapinto – Alpine – Eliminated in Q2 (10-place grid penalty)
22. Gabriel Bortoleto – Audi – Eliminated in Q2 (80-spot grid penalty)

F1 United States Grand Prix Favorites to Win, Payouts on PrizePicks

Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli secured his seventh pole of the 2026 season, and yet he is the second favorite. George Russell has the car, but a slide and a near wipeout in Q3 make his chances of contending perilous at best.

Below is a breakdown of the up-to-date United States Grand Prix favorites and payouts to win the race on Sunday, October 25, at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Make your F1 Predictions on the United States Grand Prix on PrizePicks!

Payout multipliers listed above (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if your NASCAR predictions are correct; for example, 2x on a $100 entry pays $200 if correct on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states, including Alabama. “Yes” payouts represent a specific outcome occurring, whereas "No" payouts indicate the opposite.‍

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F1 United States Grand Prix Predictions, Driver Picks for Sunday, October 25

Let's pump up the volume to 13 for our top F1 United States Grand Prix predictions, with drivers expecting a heated Sunday at Spa.

Charles Leclerc – 3.5 Finishing Position

Charles Leclerc to Win the United States Grand Prix: Yes 10x | No 1.03x

• Charles Leclerc lost time between Q2 and Q3 on Saturday, 0.232 seconds off Kimi Antonelli's pole time.
• The Ferrari driver topped the overall practice charts, including practice sessions 1 and 2.
• Leclerc won this edition of the race in 2024.
• Despite qualifying fourth, Leclerc knows how to get on the podium (three times in his last four Austin appearances).
• Leclerc is Yes 1.92x | No 1.75x to end up on the podium.

Add Charles Leclerc to your PrizePicks Formula 1 picks!

George Russell – 5.5 Finishing Position

George Russell to Finish Top 3 at United States Grand Prix: Yes 4.16x | No 1.2x

• Russell showed a lack of control at key moments on Saturday, settling for sixth after Q3.
• The Mercedes driver has little margin for error, as he needs a podium or win, plus help, to stay relevant in the Championship race.
• The early-2026 World Champion favorite has a 33.33x payout to win on PrizePicks, but a ninth and 20th after winning in Azerbaijan put him in an all-risk position.
• Russell has the pace to compete with Verstappen, Antonelli, and the Ferraris if he cleans up the Turn 3 and Turn 12 issues.

Add George Russell to your F1 picks on PrizePicks!

Lando Norris – 6 Finishing Position

Lando Norris to Finish Top 5 at United States Grand Prix: Yes 2.08x | No 1.69x

• Lando Norris starts eighth after a disastrous Q3 that saw him 0.813 seconds off the pace of Antonelli.
• Norris does have two runner-up results in 2023 and 2025. That includes a brilliant save in 2025, only to be blocked by Charles Leclerc, costing him the win.
• The McLaren driver has finished inside the Top 5 in five of his previous seven races.
• Norris has always had issues in practice and sometimes qualifying at Austin but mostly cleans it up on race day.

Add Lando Norris to your PrizePicks Formula 1 picks!

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Make F1 Predictions on PrizePicks

Expect the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix to run under warm, dry conditions over 56 laps. With temperatures around 80 degrees F (26 degrees C), tire wear is likely to be significant, requiring a more precise pit strategy.

Kimi Antonelli has his first real chance to clinch the points championship, but Lewis Hamilton and George Russell want to postpone the party. Finally, can Isack Hadjar get that podium result? He has the podium speed and pace, but can the second Red Bull car handle the heavy stress that Austin delivers?

Lock in your F1 United States GP predictions on PrizePicks before Sunday's 4:00 p.m. ET race start — and check out our F1 predictions hub at Playbook for winner and podium picks plus more across all races this season.