F1 Predictions for Mexico Grand Prix, Winner Pick – Sunday, November 1

The Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix starts Sunday, November 1 at 3 p.m. ET, live on Apple TV. The three F1 practices set up on Sunday afternoon after qualifying produced both surprising and predictable results.

Early Mexico GP predictions from Mexico City went by the wayside when George Russell thought he had the lap in Q3. That pole looked like Russell’s.

Naturally, Lewis Hamilton provided the dramatics in what could only be described as a close shave. Hamilton edged out Russell by less than 0.01 seconds (0.009). Charles Leclerc rounded out the top three in qualifying, while Max Verstappen will start fifth after a one-place grid penalty.  

Could Sunday’s F1 Mexico Grand Prix produce a sunset shocker? Let’s roar into our F1 Mexico Grand Prix predictions for Sunday afternoon’s race based on Saturday’s final practice and qualifying results. This includes the updated favorites to win, reach the podium, and more on PrizePicks.

Make F1 predictions on PrizePicks — including on winner, podium, and driver stats.

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F1 Mexico Grand Prix Predictions & Picks After Qualifying – Sunday, November 1

Kimi Antonelli was the favorite to take pole in the Mexico Grand Prix. So when he looked tense, many thought Verstappen or Russell might grab the top qualifying spot. Instead, a big twist happened.

The Ferrari cars thrived in qualifying, with Leclerc and Hamilton taking third and first. Hamilton found the pace at the right time, earning his first Ferrari pole. Lando Norris will start sixth, 0.31 seconds off Hamilton’s incredible lap.

Below is the F1 starting lineup for the Mexico Grand Prix, from first to 22nd, which may help in crafting those F1 predictions. Keep in mind that the Mexico City course is 4.304 km and has 17 turns.

There will be few overtakes because of the low-grip track and elevation changes. Potentially expect the 71 laps of racing to feature fewer passes than last week in Austin.

2026 F1 Mexico Grand Prix Starting Lineup for Sunday, November 1

1. Lewis Hamilton – Ferrari – 1:16.514
2. George Russell – Mercedes – +0.009s
3. Charles Leclerc – Ferrari – +0.119s
4. Kimi Antonelli – Mercedes – +0.193s
5. Max Verstappen – Red Bull – +0.178s (one-place grid penalty for FP2 collision)
6. Lando Norris – McLaren – +0.310s
7. Isack Hadjar – Red Bull – +0.386s
8. Arvid Lundblad – Racing Bulls – +0.594s
9. Pierre Gasly – Alpine – +0.630s
10. Nico Hulkenberg – Audi – Eliminated in Q2
11. Franco Colapinto – Alpine – Eliminated in Q2
12. Oscar Piastri – McLaren – Eliminated in Q2
13. Gabriel Bortoleto – Audi – Eliminated in Q2
14. Oliver Bearman – Haas – Eliminated in Q2
15. Carlos Sainz – Williams – Eliminated in Q2
16. Alexander Albon – Williams – Eliminated in Q2
17. Fernando Alonso – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q1
18. Ryo Hirakawa– Haas – Eliminated in Q1
19. Lance Stroll – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q1
20. Sergio Perez – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q1
21. Valtteri Bottas – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q1 (would have started in back anyway)
22. Liam Lawson – Racing Bulls – (start in back after technical breach caused qualifying DQ)
    

2026 F1 Mexico Grand Prix Favorites to Win, Payouts on PrizePicks

Charles Leclerc has three straight podium finishes on the high-elevation track. With five races to go in the season, it is time for podium scenarios and more. Can any driver make an unexpected bump up the standings?

Max Verstappen had won five of six races before Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris triumphed in the past two years.  

Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton secured his 1st pole of the 2026 season, and yet he is the second favorite. George Russell again had the car, but sometimes the unexpected just happens.

Below is a breakdown of the up-to-date Mexico Grand Prix favorites and payouts to win the race on Sunday.

Payout multipliers listed above (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if your F1 predictions are correct; for example, 2x on a $100 entry pays $200 if correct on PrizePicks.

Make your F1 Predictions on the Mexico GP Winner on PrizePicks.

2026 F1 Mexico Grand Prix Predictions, Driver Picks for Sunday, November 1

Let's kick off November with our top F1 Mexico Grand Prix predictions as drivers expect a high-elevation showdown in Mexico City on Sunday.

Find all F1 picks below on PrizePicks — and choose More or Less on driver stats to win real money when you are correct.

Charles Leclerc – 2.5 Finishing Position

Charles Leclerc to Win the Mexico GP: Yes 4.16x | No 1.2x

• Charles Leclerc progressed well in qualifying on Saturday, gaining 0.829 seconds between Q1 and Q3.
• The Ferrari driver topped the overall practice charts, including sessions 1 and 2, and finished third in the final session.
• Leclerc has never won this race but finished second to Lando Norris last year.
• The driver has three straight podiums in Mexico City.

Add Charles Leclerc to your F1 picks on PrizePicks!

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Isack Hadjar – 7.5 Finishing Position

Isack Hadjar to finish Top 5 at Mexico Grand Prix: Yes 1.63x | No 1.61x

• Red Bull’s Q1 runs were concerning Saturday, but Hadjar was second quickest, just 0.044 seconds behind Hamilton.
• The driver has little to lose, as he sits eighth on the F1 standings ladder with 105 points.
• Hadjar has only finished worse than sixth once since the race in Miami early in the season (sixth last week at Austin).
• Hadjar has the Sector 1 straightaway acceleration to maintain or even move up position-wise on Lap 1.

Add Isack Hadjar to your F1 picks on PrizePicks!

Lando Norris – 5.5 Finishing Position

Lando Norris to Top 5 at Mexico Grand Prix: Yes 1.35x | No 2.22x

• Norris starts sixth after a rough Q3 that saw him 0.31 seconds off the pace of Hamilton.
• Norris did win the race in Mexico City in 2025.
• The McLaren driver agreed when Leclerc said the race could be over by Turn 3.
• Norris and McLaren lost speed in sectors 1 and 3. There were big concerns with straightaway speed in particular. Mexico City’s 1.2 km straightaway features the 0.83 km race to Turn 1.

Add Lando Norris to your F1 picks on PrizePicks!

Make 2026 F1 Mexico Grand Prix Picks on PrizePicks

The 2026 F1 Mexico Grand Prix should run under warm, dry conditions over 71 laps. With temperatures again around 80 degrees F (26 degrees C), tires tend to overheat but wear less from abrasion and compound wear.

A one-stop pit strategy is paramount because of the long pit stops in Mexico City.

Antonelli might clinch the points championship, but Hamilton and Russell figure to battle for runner-up with Norris and Leclerc. Finally, can we get some more passing? The lack of solid overtakes at Mexico City is worsened by the conditions and the track's elevation of over 7,300 feet above sea level.

Will we see any surprises from longer shots or some awful pit strategy? Stay tuned.

Get those F1 Mexico GP predictions on PrizePicks before Sunday's 3 p.m. ET race start — and check out our F1 predictions hub for winner and podium picks plus more across all races this season.