Wednesday, July 22 brings a rubber match between the Los Angeles Dodgers (64-38) and the Philadelphia Phillies (56-46), with first pitch slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. PrizePicks Team Picks tabs the Dodgers as a favorite with a 1.78x payout if they win.
Following the Phillies’ 10-7 win on Monday, the Dodgers won a pitching duel, 2-1, in Game 2 of the three-game series. Los Angeles leads the National League standings while Philadelphia holds a Wild Card spot, making this a potential playoff preview.
Below, we’ll look at our Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 22
Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers are 3-2 over the last five games. That .600 win rate is above their season-long .627 mark. Meanwhile, the second-place Brewers are 4-1 since the break and now sit only half a game behind L.A. for first in the National League.
Following a 2-1 series loss vs. the Mets to open the second half of the regular season, the Phillies are seeking their first series win since July 12.
Below Philadelphia, six teams are within 2.0 games in the standings for the final Wild Card spot. Philly is certainly looking to avoid that logjam, as it has a 3.5-game cushion over the final playoff spot. PrizePicks Team Picks gives the Phillies a 1.05x payout to qualify for the playoffs.
Dodgers SP Eric Lauer (4-5, 5.59 xFIP in 76.2 IP) and Phillies SP Aaron Nola (3-7, 3.96 xFIP in 103.0 IP) will collide for tonight’s rubber match.
Lauer has ceded 15 hits and 6 earned runs over his previous two starts, yet the Dodgers still logged a 2-0 record in those appearances.
Nola carries a 6.04 ERA over his last four starts, yielding at least 3 earned runs in three of those appearances. Unlike Los Angeles, Philadelphia has failed to find success with a 0-4 record in the split.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 22
According to Ballpark Pal, Citizens Bank Park has the second-highest home run factor (+21%) and the fourth-highest run factor (+12%) for Wednesday’s MLB schedule, which includes a weather factor.
With two loaded batting orders clashing, today brings a healthy 9.5 over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks. The over features a 1.92x payout, while the Dodgers are favored with a 1.78x payout to win.
Check out the spread, over/under, and game winner payouts for the Dodgers vs. Phillies on Wednesday, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (2.22x payout)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Dodgers 1.78x | Phillies 1.96x
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction on Winner – 7/22/26
Here’s what you need to know for your Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction on the winner for PrizePicks.
- While Dodgers SP Eric Lauer’s season-long 4.81 ERA and 5.59 xFIP are underwhelming, he’s provided four consecutive starts with 6.0 innings pitched.
- Further, Lauer tallied 3.54 and 2.71 xERAs in his last two appearances, per FanGraphs.
- Los Angeles’ bullpen has a 3.73 xERA (sixth) and a 3.97 xFIP (tied for fifth), providing reliable relief if Lauer is an early exit.
- Furthermore, the left-handed Lauer could have an advantage with the Phillies batting .228 (tied for 25th) and slugging .379 (tied for 22nd) against southpaws.
- Philadelphia SP Aaron Nola hasn’t shown the same promise of late, surrendering 4 HRs and 6 walks in his last two starts.
- The Dodgers are more than capable of exposing each flaw, proven by a 10.3% walk rate (third), a .430 SLG (second), and 1.29 home runs per game (eighth).
- According to Baseball Savant, Nola’s most-used pitches are a knuckle curve (34.3%), four-seam fastball (23.4%), and sinker (19.8%). L.A. ranks seventh and fourth in runs above average against four-seamers and sinkers; it isn’t too shabby against knuckle curves as well, ranked 12th in runs above average.
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Dodgers vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks Today
Here are the top Dodgers vs. Phillies picks to target on PrizePicks on Wednesday, July 22. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Eric Lauer and Mookie Betts.
Dodgers SP Eric Lauer vs. Phillies: 3.5 Strikeouts
- Lauer is certainly not known for striking out the opposition, with a minuscule 14.5% K rate (fifth percentile) and a 5.52 K/9 that’s well below the 8.51 league average.
- However, he’s finished the sixth inning in four straight starts and pitched into the sixth in six of his last seven outings.
- If Lauer records another deep start, this 3.5-strikeout projection feels within reach. He’s reached 4 Ks in four of his past eight starts.
- Aiding his chance of reaching 4 strikeouts, the Phillies have a 23.8% strikeout rate (tied for sixth-highest). That increases to 24.4% when facing left-handed hurlers.
- Lauer touts a solid 32.2% chase rate (70th percentile), and the Phillies swing at 35.9% of pitches outside the strike zone (fourth-highest).
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Dodgers SS Mookie Betts vs. Phillies: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Dodgers SS Mookie Betts has struggled with a .234/.296/.426 slash line this season, compared to .258/.326/.406 in 2025.
- His .426 SLG carries some promise, backed by a 40.4% launch angle sweet-spot rate (94th percentile) and 90.5 average exit velocity (73rd percentile).
- Phillies SP Aaron Nola surrenders an 88.4 average exit velocity (57th percentile) and a concerning 10.1% barrel rate (15th percentile). That helps fuel his alarming 2.01 HR/9.
- Betts has raked over 23 career at-bats against Nola, batting .391 with a .696 SLG.
- Nola allows a 41.8% fly ball rate that’s above the 39.0% league average. That’s dangerous against Betts’ 49.8% fly ball rate for today’s +21% home run factor in Citizens Bank Park.
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Who will take the rubber match between two potential playoff teams in the National League? As the favorite, the Dodgers could have a slight advantage in the starting pitcher matchup, paired with a favorable home run environment for Wednesday night’s game.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Dodgers vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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