Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB Picks for NLCS Game 1 – Sunday, October 11

Game 1 of the NLCS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 11, at American Family Field in Milwaukee. According to PrizePIcks, the Brewers are slight favorites with a 1.85x payout to win.

The 2026 National League Championship Series begins with a rematch of last year's NLCS, when the Dodgers swept Milwaukee to advance to the 2025 World Series. Los Angeles is looking to capture its third consecutive championship, but it will have to get through the Brewers again, who enter the series after finishing with MLB's best regular-season record at 103-59.

The Dodgers will hand the ball to LHP Tarik Skubal (2.70 xFIP), who struck out 7 batters over 6.0 innings in his NLDS start. The Brewers will counter with RHP Jacob Misiorowski (2.29 xFIP), who struck out 6 batters in 4.0 innings against San Diego.

Below, we'll break down our Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction and picks for Sunday's NLCS Game 1, including the winner, over/under, and player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your picks for Dodgers vs. Brewers on PrizePicks now.

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Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for NLCS Game 1

This one is essentially a pick 'em, but the Brewers come in as slight home favorites, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Dodgers vs. Brewers game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction on the winner on PrizePicks.

Skubal gets the nod for Los Angeles after an impressive NLDS start against Atlanta. The two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner retired 15 consecutive batters during that outing, finishing with 7 strikeouts and allowing 1 earned run over 6.0 innings.

The left-hander also faced Milwaukee twice in the regular season, working 6.0 innings in both. He allowed 4 runs in the first matchup, followed by 2 runs, 1 earned, in the second.

The Dodgers’ offense has been slightly below average in the postseason, and if they want to go back-to-back-to-back, they'll need more from DH Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani is hitting just .154 in the postseason with a laughably bad wRC+ of 29.

Milwaukee counters with the Miz, baseball's most electric young pitcher. The right-hander struck out 6 Padres in 4.0 innings in his most recent outing, though he needed 88 pitches to finish those frames.

Misiorowski has performed well against the Dodgers throughout his career, posting a 1.59 ERA with 27 strikeouts across 17 innings in three appearances. That includes his previous postseason appearance against Los Angeles, where he pitched 5.0 innings, allowed just 1 earned run, and struck out 9.

It’s a fascinating contrast of styles in this one. The Dodgers finished the regular season with 50 more home runs than the Brewers (204 vs. 154), but the Brewers don’t care about that. They win games by making contact and grinding out at-bats, running the bases hard, and playing phenomenal defense.

Whichever team can impose its preferred style of play on the other will likely come out victorious in what is sure to be an entertaining series. 

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Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction on Winner for NLCS Game 1 – 10/11/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction on the winner for Sunday's NLCS Game 1.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from FanGraphs or Baseball Savant.

• The Brewers hold an edge (albeit slight) tonight across two of the main three aspects of a game (offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching).
• Misiorowski has been phenomenal against Los Angeles in his career and has an xFIP almost half a run better than Skubal’s (2.29 vs. 2.7).
• Los Angeles has struggled to make consistent contact throughout the postseason, batting .203 during that stretch with a wRC+ of 79.
• Meanwhile, the Brewers offense has been outstanding in the postseason, leading all teams in batting average (.250) and wRC+ (95).
• Given the low-scoring nature of postseason baseball, manufacturing a run or 2 is extremely important. Milwaukee is far better at that, finishing with the fifth-most steals (162) this season, compared to the Dodgers, who finished with the third-fewest (72).
• These bullpens have been neck and neck all season. In the regular season, the Dodgers ranked fourth in xFIP (3.90 xFIP), while the Brewers were one spot behind them in fifth with an almost identical xFIP of 3.92.
• With home-field advantage and some motivation after being swept by the Dodgers in last season’s NLCS, this could be a good spot for the Brewers to take a 1-0 series lead.

Lock in your Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Picks, Player Stats for NLCS on PrizePicks – 10/11/26

Here are the top Dodgers vs. Brewers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday's NLCS Game 1. Today's MLB picks include Tarik Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski.

Dodgers SP Tarik Skubal vs. Brewers: 7 Strikeouts

• This is a tough strikeout matchup for Skubal against a Brewers offense with the lowest strikeout rate in the postseason (16.9%). 
• The Dodgers' left-hander struck out 5 and 7 Brewers in his two appearances against them this season, failing to clear this projection in both outings. Now he will face them in the playoffs, where managers typically have quicker hooks for their starters.
• The Brewers also do a great job forcing pitchers into deep pitch counts, which can limit how long a starter goes. They finished the regular season with a 10.6% walk rate, tied for the best in baseball.
• Skubal loves to rely on his changeup to generate strikeouts, throwing the pitch 25.6% of the time. That may not work against a Brewers lineup that finished the regular season with the seventh-best wCH/C (changeup runs above average per 100 pitches) at 0.34.

Add Tarik Skubal to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Brewers SP Jacob Misiorowski vs. Dodgers: 7 Strikeouts

• Misiorowski brings elite swing-and-miss stuff into this matchup, posting a 37.9% strikeout rate and a 37.3% whiff rate during the 2026 regular season.
• The Miz has 27 strikeouts in 17 career innings against Los Angeles, a remarkable rate of more than 14 strikeouts per 9.0 innings.
• The Dodgers’ offense is a neutral-to-slightly-above-average matchup for strikeouts. They own a 24.1% strikeout rate so far in the postseason.
• They also haven’t done a great job drawing walks, with just a 7.6 BB% so far in the playoffs. This could keep Misiorowski’s pitch count down, let him go deeper into the game, and help him rack up more strikeouts.
• Los Angeles' offense has a -1.53 wFB/C in the postseason so far, ranking ninth out of 12 teams. This could be a major problem against Misiorowski, who boasts the best fastball in baseball, routinely throwing the pitch 103+ mph with movement. 

Add Jacob Misiorowski to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Dodgers vs. Brewers Picks on PrizePicks

This fascinating 2026 NLCS opens with an outstanding pitching matchup between Skubal and Misiorowski, two starters who can absolutely shut down opposing offenses.

Milwaukee has a home-field advantage and a better postseason offense so far, but the Dodgers have more power throughout their lineup, which could be key in what figures to be a low-scoring game.

Don't wait until the first pitch — make your Dodgers vs. Brewers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right.

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