Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction, MLB Picks for Saturday, July 11

The first pitch of the Arizona Diamondbacks (47-47) vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers (61-34) is set for 9:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 11, with the Dodgers returning a 1.33x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

In the first game of the series on Friday, the Diamondbacks got it started with 2 runs in the first inning, but the Dodgers responded right away with 2 of their own. Then it was all Arizona scoring 7 of the next 8 runs, led by 1B Tim Tawa’s 3-hit, 3-RBI performance in the 9-3 win. The Dodgers will try to even the series, and they may like their chances with their ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting the start.

Below, we'll break down our Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, July 11

For this game, the Diamondbacks will start SP Brandon Pfaadt (4.45 xFIP in 48.1 IP, 15 appearances, 5 starts). It was a brutal beginning to the season for Pfaadt, with a 5.94 ERA and 5.39 FIP in his first three starts.

To make room for Merrill Kelly’s return, Arizona demoted Pfaadt to the bullpen. However, that experiment did not work out, with a 5.91 ERA and 5.50 FIP in 10 appearances. He spent most of June down in Triple-A, and whatever adjustments he’s made have done wonders because in the two starts since returning to the big club, he’s allowed 1 earned run in 10.1 innings.

The Diamondbacks’ attempt to climb back into the National League West feels like trying to climb Mount Everest wearing flip-flops. They are 13.5 games behind, as the first half of the season concludes this weekend. 

However, it may not be time to start booking those vacations in October, as they are still in contention for the Wild Card and are just five games out of the final playoff spot. They could attempt to improve the roster as the trade deadline draws close.

The Dodgers will counter with SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.22 xFIP in 104.2 IP, 16 starts) on Saturday night.

The 2025 World Series MVP continues to be one of the top pitchers in baseball. He’s coming into this start fifth with a 2.49 ERA and second with a 0.88 WHIP. If you can believe it, he’s been even better recently; since May 18, he’s second among MLB starters in xERA (2.62), WAR (1.8), and fourth in hard-hit percentage (31.2%).

The Dodgers aren’t just running away from the NL West; they have rockets attached to their cleats as they are sprinting away. It wasn’t too long ago that they weren’t in first place. Los Angeles has held the division lead since May 19. Since then, it has a league-leading 34-16 record, while the rest of the NL West haven’t had a record above .500 during that time, which has allowed the Dodgers to gain a 13.5-game lead. 

According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Dodgers have the shortest payout to win the 2026 World Series (2.85x).

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, July 11

The Dodgers enter Saturday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.33x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (1.72x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Diamondbacks 3.12x | Dodgers 1.33x

Make your Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction on Spread – 7/11/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction on the runline for Saturday, July 11.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Dodgers have won Yamamoto’s last four starts against Arizona.
• Los Angeles has controlled this head-to-head matchup, sweeping the first series back in late March.
• Pfaadt has struggled at Chavez Ravine, with a 6.20 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium.
• Yamamoto does well at getting opposing hitters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, with a 33.8% chase rate that’s in the 81st percentile. Arizona ranks 21st in the league with a 31.4% chase rate.
• Pfaadt struggles to keep the ball away from the best part of the bat, allowing a 10.7% barrel rate and a 20.0% barrel rate to the Dodgers in his previous start on March 31. The Dodgers rank third in baseball with a 9.4% barrel rate.

Lock in your Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 7/11/26

Here are the top Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, July 11. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Freddie Freeman and Ketel Marte.

Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman vs. Diamondbacks: 1.5 Total Bases

• Freeman has been red-hot over the last few weeks with a .421 wOBA, .323 xBA, and .526 xSLG since June 2.
• The former MVP has enjoyed success against Pfaadt, going 8 for 24 with 3 doubles and a home run.
• Freeman can crush the ball with a 39.6% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 73rd percentile. That’s where Pfaadt struggles, allowing a 39.6% hard-hit rate that’s in the 41st percentile.
• Pfaadt noticeably struggles against left-handed hitters with a .392 wOBA compared to .270 against right-handed hitters and a 25.9% home run-to-fly-ball ratio compared to 4.0% against righties. This could benefit the lefty-swinging Freeman.

Add Freddie Freeman to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte vs. Dodgers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Marte has a hit in 23 of his last 27 games and has not been hitless in back-to-back games.
• The D-backs’ second baseman has some success against Yamamoto, going 5 for 18 with a double and a home run.
• Marte is an excellent contact hitter, with a .300 xBA that ranks in the 98th percentile. Yamamoto is allowing a .233 xBA, which is only in the 62nd percentile.

Add Ketel Marte to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Picks on PrizePicks

The Diamondbacks got the first win of the series, but they are still dealing with a significant deficit in the NL West. The Dodgers have to love their chances to even the series with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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