Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction, MLB Picks for Saturday, July 25 

The Chicago Cubs (58-45) and Pittsburgh Pirates (53-51) play the second game of their three-game series at 6:40 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 25. The Pirates are home favorites, and a win would return a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks.

Chicago needed extra innings to beat Pittsburgh on Friday, scoring 2 runs in the top of the 10th to break a 1-1 tie before holding on for a 3-2 victory. 

The Cubs sit atop the NL wild card standings, with the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks occupying the other two spots. The Pirates are just two games behind Arizona for the final wild card berth, though, and they're one of several teams within striking distance.

Below, we'll break down our Cubs vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Cubs vs. Pirates picks and predictions on PrizePicks now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, July 25

Pirates SP Paul Skenes will start today, giving the home crowd at PNC Park plenty of reason to believe Pittsburgh can come away with a win.

While Skenes’ 3.43 ERA is higher than what we’ve grown accustomed to since he burst onto the scene in 2024, his underlying metrics remain excellent. Through 21 starts, the right-hander has put up a 2.75 xERA, a 29.7% strikeout rate, and a 5.6% walk rate, all marks that are in the 91st percentile or better — via Baseball Savant.

On the other side, lefty SP Shota Imanaga will take the mound for Chicago.

Imanaga has been a slightly above-average arm this season, sporting a 3.74 xERA, a 23.5% K rate, and a 6.0% BB rate across 20 starts. However, a familiar problem has cropped up for the 32-year-old, as he’s been prone to giving up the long ball, allowing 1.72 HR/9. 

Offensively, these teams have been two of the most productive clubs at the plate in 2026. The Pirates have averaged the second-most runs per game (5.24), while the Cubs have posted the fourth-most (5.08). This is backed by Pittsburgh and Chicago being tied for the third-best wRC+ (109).

Cubs vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, July 25

The Pirates enter Saturday’s game as a home favorite against the Cubs, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Cubs vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (2.63x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Cubs 2.04x | Pirates 1.72x 

Make your Cubs vs. Pirates prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction on Over/Under – 7/25/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Cubs vs. Pirates prediction on the over/under for Saturday, July 25.

• Skenes last faced the Cubs in late May, and while he allowed 3 runs in 5.1 innings, only 1 was earned, and he racked up 10 Ks. 
• Including that game, Skenes has allowed more than 2 earned runs only twice in his last 10 starts. He’s logged a 3.09 xFIP, a 31.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.3% walk rate over that stretch.
• In April, Imanaga allowed no runs or hits to the Pirates across 6.0 innings.
• According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, PNC Park is a slightly above-average venue for hitters overall, but it ranks as the third-toughest one for home runs. That could work in Imanaga's favor given his tendency to allow the long ball.
• Despite Pittsburgh’s overall success at the plate this season, they’ve been less lethal versus left-handers. The Pirates’ active roster has a 98 wRC+ and .155 ISO in the split.
• The Pirates’ bats have been quiet since the All-Star break, too, combining for a league-worst .262 wxOBA. 

Lock in your Cubs vs. Pirates prediction on PrizePicks now.

Cubs vs. Pirates Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/25/26

Here are the top Cubs vs. Pirates picks to target on PrizePicks on Saturday, July 25. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Shota Imanaga and Alex Bregman.

Cubs SP Shota Imanaga vs. Pirates: 5.5 Strikeouts

• Pittsburgh’s active roster owns an elevated 24.4% strikeout rate versus lefties this season. 
• The Pirates have really scuffled at the plate in the second half, which includes a league-worst 32.2% K rate.
• In Imanaga’s April start against the Pirates, he logged 9 strikeouts in 6.0 innings. That's the third-most Ks he’s produced this season.
• The southpaw owns a 36.8% chase rate (96th percentile) and a 29.3% whiff rate (78th percentile) in 2026.

Add Shota Imanaga to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Cubs 3B Alex Bregman vs. Pirates: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Bregman is having a rough campaign in his first year with the Cubs. He’s produced a .305 xwOBA (32nd percentile), a 36.0% hard-hit rate (24th percentile), and a 4.3% barrel rate (17th percentile).
• While he’s still showing a good eye at the plate with a 16.0% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate, he’s just not doing a whole lot when he makes contact.
• Since the All-Star break, Bregman is slashing .185/.290/.296 with a 25.8% K rate.
• The 32-year-old’s .309 wOBA and .118 ISO would be the worst marks of his career if the season ended today.
• Against right-handed batters, Skenes has recorded a 2.54 xFIP, a 32.4% strikeout rate, and a 3.9% walk rate this year.
• Skenes has been particularly effective at home, posting a 2.80 xFIP and a 32.6% K rate at PNC Park compared to a 3.63 xFIP and a 25.6% K rate in away games.

Add Alex Bregman to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Cubs vs. Pirates Picks on PrizePicks

The NL wild card race is shaping up to be a good one the rest of the way. Who will get a much-needed win between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Cubs vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.